Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis
Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks
. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.
In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line"
column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line"
Tuesday, June 03, 2008
The NYRA Feature Race Analysis WIll Resume Next Week, Upon the Completion of the Belmont Stakes
Written by John Pricci
Sunday, June 01, 2008
Taking Price Shot in Beautiful Pleasure
Today’s feature is the Beautiful Pleasure Stakes for fillies and mares, three-year-olds and up, which have not won a stakes this year, at a mile and a sixteenth, on what likely will be a Widener course rated good.
The most accomplished and fastest females in here are either all long on early pace or returning from lengthy layups. Unlike yesterday’s feature, it is unlikely that any of the better fillies will shake loose on an uncontested lead the way Tom Albertrani’s filly did yesterday beneath Alan Garcia, who has this knack of stealing paceless grass stakes.
Rather than try to guess how the pace scenario will shake out, we’ll take a price filly in here who could sit a good ground-saving trip behind the speed and then kick, as she’s shown no need to carry a preferred surface around with her. She acts on any ground.
Chances are that Latitude Forty is 12-1 on the early line because she seems a poor match on class lines--but not on performance figures. Further, she loves today’s conditions, having won three of her four lifetime scores on Belmont grass and half her four starts at today’s distance. Trainer John Hertler is coming alive at the current meet and is a profitable 15 percent in his career in non-graded stakes. Second off a layup, she never had a chance in her season’s debut, trapped on the fence at every critical stage.
Taking Latitude Forty to win and place at 10-1 or greater.
Running Totals: (215) 69-46-24. Total Dollar Return: $427.30 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Saturday, May 31, 2008
Weather Could Determine Sands Point Winner
At first blush, it appears as if the favorites should dominate the Grade 2 Sands Point for three-year-old fillies on the Belmont inner turf course at nine furlongs. Alwajeeha (5-2) would be a deserving favorite off her victory in the G3 Appalachian, Life Is Sweet (2-1) second in the Calder Oaks and beaten three lengths in the G1 Ashland on Keeneland’s Polytrack and I Lost My Choo (3-1), narrowly beaten in the Appalachian.
But with a 50 percent chance of thunderstorms Friday night and 80 percent Saturday, the turf will likely be yielding at best if, indeed, the race is not rescheduled if the course takes a lot of water. We’ll analyze this for off ground.
Life Is Sweet is a tough read. While she acts on off going, she appears better on firm turf. Her big edge is that her career best figure was earned while breaking her maiden in her only start on this course. Her strong late kick might not serve her well on off footing.
Alwajeeha is the co-fastest filly in here given her G3 Keeneland victory and she has sufficient recovery time since that effort. But she, too, would seem to prefer it firm. Johnny Velazquez takes the re-ride for Kiaran McLaughlin, currently on a big-race roll.
I Lost My Choo had a tougher trip when narrowly beaten by Alwajeeha, is the other co-fastest filly and she’s done it on more than one occasion. She handles any ground and might be suited by the presence of likely pacesetter Raw Silk, whereby Edgar Prado could fall into a good trip despite her outside draw. Further, she might fall between the parimutuel cracks given the higher profile competition.
Ambidaxtrous, meanwhile, is an interesting price shot at 12-1. She won both recent turf starts with authority, albeit over weaker rivals and in slower time. But both wins came over soft ground and her latest indicated she’s developing quickly with a strong late run off a slower early pace. Tom Bush is batting 29 percent at the meet and Rajiv Maragh was aboard for both recent wins.
Depending on post time odds, I’d seriously consider betting two horses to win: at early line odds: I Lost My Choo at early odds of 3-1 or more and Ambidaxtrous at 12-1 or greater, and a small exacta box. (If race is re-scheduled to dirt, prefer main-track-only entrant Forest Trail).
Running Totals: (214) 69-46-24 Total Dollar Return: $427.30 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci