Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis
Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks
. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.
In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line"
column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line"
Saturday, April 26, 2008
Featured Beaugay Up for Ransom
Not one but two features today, and after seeing how short the field was for the Grade 3 Withers, I figure I’d analyze the G3 Beaugay instead. I was right. The Withers drew only four horses. The Beaugay was bigger, it drew five! Too bad the sexes, surfaces and distance was different. That would have made for a nice nine-horse field.
In the Withers, it will be Bay Shore winner J Be K against the world..er..three horses. With a 50 percent chance of showers Friday night and Saturday and the promise of a at least a damp surface, J Be K’s speed will be hard to run down. But if anyone can, Harlem Rocker is an intriguing prospect. Two-for-two in career, his last was a fast reversal of energy with a competitive figure. Meanwhile, his uncoupled Todd Pletcher mate, Face The Cat, is much better than he showed in Florida Derby. And J Be K is no Big Brown.
The Beaugay should be least effected by damp/wet conditions and it’s extremely doubtful the race comes off the turf. Three of the five can win: Sweet Ransom (3-1), Factual Contender (4-1) and Criminologist (9-5).
The latter two fillies are the most accomplished. Criminologist is a dual G3 winner and was an excellent second in her season’s debut at Keeneland; a too late-finishing second on yielding ground at a mile. That’s a tough go, moreover, she’s always been better in her second start following a layoff.
Factual Contender won four restricted/overnight stakes in a busy campaign and earns the highest figures of the group consistently. Barclay Tagg has had her in training since February and she’s highly unlikely to be a short filly for today’s race. Eibar Coa, who rides today, was aboard for all four of those aforementioned wins.
But Sweet Ransom has the most upside as a newly turned four-year-old. She was a fast-closing second in the G3 Frances “You’ve Won the Derby” Genter going 7-½ furlongs at Calder--not the easiest trip for any later runner. She owns enough tactical speed to track lone speedster, draws the pole, switches to big-money turf ace Edgar Prado, and Bill Mott is a 24 percent profitable with returnees of 90 days or more. Her two lone wins and one placing have come from four starts at today’s distance.
Taking Sweet Ransom to win at 5-2 or greater and keying her first and second in exactas with her main rivals here.
Running Totals: (199) 65-43-22. Total Dollar Return: $405.60 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Friday, April 25, 2008
Race Shape Suits Run With Me
Today’s puzzle looks best served by taking a page out of the Handicapping 101 Handbook. Two horses, or more, could hook up in an early duel while another, turning back in distance from seven furlongs to six and having some late punch should come on to beat everyone. But that’s if Run With Me (3-1) runs back to his last race.
True Quality (2-1) was much improved to break his maiden--his main track debut--by open lengths. Speed riding C. C. Lopez hustled the third-time starter away from the barrier to secure a clear lead and was never threatened. It was a lifetime best effort but returns on a short 19-day rest.
August Rex (5-2) recovered from a roughed start, stalked a strong pace, and won prolonged stretch duel to win his debut, also earning an excellent figure. He, too, is susceptible to react, however, but he’s had five weeks recovery and has worked twice subsequently. And all the Levine barn has been doing in win of late. Rajiv Maragh retains the mount.
Maragh has been the regular rider of Run With Me but opts off today in favor of the Levine trainee. Does that mean August Rex is better, or that Levine has a stronger barn at the moment than the capable, low profile Tim Ritvo. Run With Me’s last effort was also a lifetime best and he’s back on a short 19-day turnaround here.
But the thinking is that Stewart Elliott will work out a stalking trip behind the speed and the shorter distance should help his closing kick. His figure last time out was so good that he can react adversely and still handle this group. He’s very likely to be fair odds.
Taking Run With Me to win at 5-2 or greater and keying him in exacta boxes with his two speedy rivals here.
Running Totals: (199) 65-43-22. Total Dollar Return $405.60 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Thursday, April 24, 2008
Good Better Again Best
Today’s preliminary allowance feature for fillies and mares 4 & up going a flat mile has drawn but five entrants, nevertheless is competitive--one you get past the favorite that is:
Inside Passage (2-1) makes her first start for Barclay Tagg, a profitable 30 percent effective in that scenario. The filly earned competitive figures at 3 so, with any 4-year-old development, she could be in the conversation for the race’s best figure earner. The filly has been in steady training since February and certainly will be fit for this. Main stable rider Eibar is aloft but the filly must overcome the rail post at this distance.
Positive Prospect (9-2) has never taken a backwards step and showed much improved early speed in her latest. She certainly has enough pedigree for today's mini-stretchout and Rajiv Maragh has a nice way with pace types--and virtually anything he rides for the prolific Gary Contessa. She is the likely pacesetter of the group.
But Better Again (6-5) looks like too much filly here. She comes from a series of quickly run miles vs. better at Gulfstream, showing improvement with blinkers last out, a key race that produced two winners from four subsequent starters. She’s the fastest on performance figures and position conscious Cornelio Velasquez should have her positioned perfectly from her outside slip.
Taking Better Again to win, no price restrictions, and exactas with her main rivals here.
Running Totals: (198) 65-42-22. Total Dollar Return: $405.60 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci