Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis

Whenever his daily work schedule permits, HorseRaceInsider executive editor John Pricci will analyze that day's feature race from a major thoroughbred-racing jurisdiction.

Saturday, March 10, 2012

How Do I Win?  How Do I Win!

We'll be taking a look at a 3 year old stakes race at Aqueduct that is likely to have no bearing on the Kentucky Derby; the 6 furlong Fred 'Cappy' Capposela.

If you believe performance figures are the measure, then you're most likely to land on early line favorite Ancient Rome (5-2). This speedster had ascending figures sprinting until his connections decided to go long in the Gulfstream Park Derby. Experiment: Failed.

SInce then, Anthony Dutrow has regrouped, freshened the speedster, shipped him north a a return to his best distance, and tapped C C Lopez to partner. Lopez, as many know, is a speed rider extraordinaire.

But we'e going to opt for How Do I Win (7-2), a horse trainer Todd Pletcher has called disappointing; quite a mouthful for the future first ballot Hall of Famer. We noticed before that whenever he had his doubts about one of his runners, invariably he'd shorten that horse up, the tack here.

When last seen, he was setting the pace the Grade 3 Withers but proved no match for Alpha. Considering that that 3-year-old is the likely second choice to Union Rags in the Florida Derby, this is no disgrace. This sprint is ungraded and his pole position will allow Cornelio Velasquez a look at the action from close range. Turn backs are a Pletcher specialty, profitable despite a large sample in that category.

Taking How Do I Win to finish first at 5-2 or greater and keying him first and second in multiples with the favorite and the equally fast Chad Brown trainee, Beggarthyneighbor (6-1).

Running Totals: (1039) 321-203-150 Total Dollar Return: $2,222.40 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


Friday, March 09, 2012

Psst, Got a Hot One in the Feature

Another interesting turf route, a preliminary allowances-optional high class claimer for 3-year-olds going a mile and a sixteenth and, as per usual, there are many different ways to go.

It’s not that the favorite is worth trying to beat. He might not be, given the open nature of a field such as this, where the public’s choice could pay fair odds.

That would be Silver Max (3-1) who, when last seen, was chasing the pace in Algorithms’ Grade 3 Holy Bull. Even without the surface change, this would be a totally different animal. Prior to that, he was a special-weights maiden breaker.

Dale Romans’ colt never has taken a backward step on the Equiform scale while racing on turf and owns a wide edge over the group. The one nagging element is 5 runnerup finishes in 7 career starts.

We will go for the gusto here with Scorcher (12-1) who’s developing nicely on the figures scale--albeit not as fast—returns at a reduced level for the first time since claimed three back, picks up Johnny, blew out sharply at his Calder base and gets a couple of pounds from the favorite.

Taking Scorcher to win at 7-1 or greater, an exacta box with the favorite and adding sharp working Captain Webb (6-1) to the exotics mix.

Running Totals: (1039) 321-203-150 Total Dollar Return: $2,222.40 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


Thursday, March 08, 2012

Go Long with Indy

Yet another interesting Gulf feature, this one a preliminary allowances or 2-lifer for older horses going 9 furlongs that features plenty of good older horses that for one reason or another have failed to break through this condition.

The early line favorite is Self Control (5-2) who’s been spot-shopping for the Chad Brown outfit recently. Talented and lightly raced, he seems well spotted in this group after dead-heating with similar. The son of Lemon Drop Kid is suited by stretchout and he retains Castellano. Very logical, indeed.

So what’s wrong with the horse he dead-heated with, E. H. Indy (5-1)? Nothing, actually. He’s done his best racing over this ground and the Martha Gerry homebred owns a pedigree that screams for today’s added distance. Trainer Angel Penna Jr. is profitable lifetime with this type, the spacing is perfect and profitable, and the late developing 5-year-old has been working very steadily and with purpose recently.

Taking E. H. Indy to win at 4-1 or greater, exacta key boxes with the favorite and nicely developing price shot Unbridled Kimanchi (8-1), and adding turf-to-dirt Devon Rock (6-1), first-time Pletcher Eye On Jacob (3-1) and strong working Believe In A.P. (15-1) to the super-exotic mix.

Running Totals: (1038) 321-203-149 Total Dollar Return: $2,222.40 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


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