Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis
Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks
. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.
In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line"
column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line"
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
In the Mood for a Blues Cruise?
Today’s feature race, the listed Fairy Garden Stakes for older fillies and mares on the turf at a mile and a sixteenth “for horses that have not a graded stakes over a mile on turf in 2008,” fits plenty of horses in this country but none better than either the ironically named fillies, Blues for Sale (8-1) and Bsharpsonata (2-1).
The reasons why each fits the conditions so snugly is that the former never has run on turf, nor has she even started in a race this year, while the latter has won a Grade 2 on dirt going seven furlongs on a wet track, but never a graded turf event despite a pair of wins at that surface.
Bsharpsonata makes her first start for the Todd Pletcher barn off a lengthy layup. He has entered the filly Main Track Only, and she would be the choice on class lines alone should this race be rescheduled to the main track. She’d be an obvious choice, but not so Rick Dutrow’s filly.
Bred in Argentina, the filly has been training with supreme purpose. With the possible exception of one missed work, the IEAH five-year-old South American has worked every six days dating back to Sept. 1. She kept excellent company in her native land, too, having won a pair of Grade 3s and a G2. In addition to her terrific workline, she attracts turf ace Edgar Prado and is nicely bred on her paternal side for the surface.
Taking Blues for Sale to win at 5-1 or greater and exacta and trifectas key boxes first and second with Chestoria (12-1), who‘s getting some class relief, give in the ground and a switch to Alan Garcia, and Jade Queen (5-2), the solid solid turf-intended Pletcher trainee.
Running Totals: (309) 95-64-39 Total Dollar Return: $650.20 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Sunday, November 09, 2008
Here’s Looking at You, Kid
There are six state-bred stakes on today’s card but the two bigger features are the Stallion Series for two-year-olds, and we’ll opt to look at the males in the Broadway Division.
The face features a worthy favorite, Tall Poppi (3-5). He’s never taken a backward step in four lifetime starts and is, by definition, the fast horse in the race on performance figures. He was most recently second in the Bongard and Sleepy Hollow behind the streaking Trinity Magic. But at very short odds, he seems overpriced.
Not so Lookin At Her, at a value laden 8-1. After earning an excellent sprint figure two starts back, he raced rushed off his feet in last, a new lifetime pace top, and is expected to move forward coming back at the same sprint distance. His natural speed will put him in the game early and he could break this open on turn. At anything near early line odds, it’s worth finding out.
Taking Lookin At Her to win at 5-1 or greater and an exacta box with Tall Poppi.
Running Totals: (308) 94-64-39 Total Dollar Return: $628.00 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Saturday, November 08, 2008
Germans Know How To Do It Longer
The last graded stakes of the New York turf season, the G2 Red Smith at 11 furlongs, has attracted an eclectic group, including European-based competition.
The likely post time favorite will be the rapidly developing Summer Patriot whose performance figures indicates he’s never taken a backward step on grass. He had his doubters when stepped up in class and distance at Saratoga but justified Barclay Tagg’s optimism and turf training acumen with a comprehensive victory. Following that came a game third-place effort when stepped up to the G1 level in Belmont’s Turf Classic. Moving forward again, he sheds 10 important pounds in this matchup as well as dropping one graded level. He’s been working lights out and switches to the patient Javier Castellano.
Another rapid developer is the four-year-old Strike A Deal who comes off the fastest performance figure among last-out efforts, albeit against weaker at a shorter route. But when given the opportunity, he moved forward figure-wise when stretched to this distance in the G1 United Nations this past summer and just missed catching a loose leader. Trainer Alan Goldberg is profitable in his career with all turf starters. Veteran turf and pace ace C. C. Lopez takes the re-ride.
But we’ll take any value available on the German marathoner Lauro, whose poised for a forward move in his third start off nearly a two-year absence, showing marked improvement after adding Lasix. The five-year-old has proven remarkably versatile, not only in terms of running style but in his ability to handle any footing. Trainer Andreas Wohler has enjoyed success when shipping to North America and attracts regular stable rider Starke. Lauro has a worthy (4) 2-2-0 slate at today’s distance.
Betting Lauro to win at 3-1 or greater and keying him first and second in exactas with his main rivals here.
Running Totals: (307) 94-63-39 Total Dollar Return: $628.00 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci