Sunday, November 30, 2014
Trainer Knows Best
HRI has entered into a promotional relationship with 123.gaming.com in which each Sunday we analyze the six races that comprise their unique Pick 6 contest wager, the current featured track being Parx Racing. The following is a profile of races 4 through 9. For the purposes of the Feature Race Analysis, in today's 8th race we're taking the value offered on Calamondin (9-2) to win, no price restrictions, and boxing the exacta with Jacobson ship-in Glickman (3-1).
FOURTH: 10-LUDO BAGMAN (3-1) in from New York for Jacobson and getting Pennington, never has run this cheaply—barn a very worthy 35% effective with two class dropdowns; easily proves best if fit. 4-WOODY’S SHOW (5-1) showed improved speed when coming back in six weeks after gamely winning prior; has been well spotted at this level and late developing 3YO should continue to improve.
FIFTH: HOLD THE WIRE (2-1) returns at optimal distance for Nations, who’s been on a tear of late and is 32% profitable with its maiden claimers and 31% with its beaten favorites; drops, pole sitting and gets Vaz on the re-ride. JUST ACE (3-1), nicely drawn outside, has run well in both lifetime starts and was claimed by Trombetta, 19% effective with new acquisitions and profitable with class risers; has run well at the trip and McCarthy’s been on a recent tear.
SIXTH: 4-PINK HERO (4-1) showed marked improvement to win last at 6-1/2F, earning out top Energy Figure, well spotted at this level and easily repeats with similar effort. 3-TOUCH OF FAITH (12-1) second to the choice two back at this level, raced evenly and dully behind tougher in last; returns to proper level and switches back to regular partner Caballaro; 3YO still has some upside and looms value at early line odds. 6-SOPHIE’S SECRET (9-2), surface lover, drops to classes for LeBarron, 25% effective with beaten favorites, and switches to talented, live apprentice; could easily win this open scramble.
SEVENTH: 4-IRISH JASPER (2-1) in from NY following good late-finish third in starter allowances after breaking maiden here by open lengths in debut; earned excellent ascending figures that easily takes this reuniting with Carmouche.
2-LITE AND SWEET (12-1), from same NY race as choice, was also an open lengths maiden breaker on this track previously; excellent value at early line odds. I JUST WANNA WIN (3-1) beat weaker with authority in maiden debut Nov. 23 and was claimed by Pino, 29% effective with first-time acquisitions.
EIGHTH: 7-CALAMONDIN (9-2) was overmatched and out-posted by beaten off in Laurel (turf) Dash last out after earning top Energy Rating score on this surface previously; recent blowout for this was 6th fastest of 67 peers to work last week at Parx; scratched last night at Penn National in favor of this. 2-GLICKMAN (3-1) takes confident rise shipping in for Jacobson following daylight score over 40K claimers at Big A Nov. 12; won here three starts back and reuniting with winning rider Pennington.
NINTH: 5-IMAGE (2-1) speedy 3YO takes next logical step in conditions following lengthy wire score; has come to hand this summer and fall, returns here with good spacing on a mini-turn-back to winning distance for Lake; 21% effective
with attempting repeaters. 9-LIKE A DIVA (8-1) will be running late and benefits from shift outside; apprentice Ritvo riding for uncle Mike Petro in this spot. 10-DREAMINGOFAUNTLIZ (6-1) turns back to her most effective trip and likely to
be stalking, benefitting from shift outside.
Number of Selections since 2007: 1650
Number of Win and Place Finishes: 495-323
Amount Wagered: $3,300 [to win only]
Total Dollar Return on Investment: $3,400.40
Profit to Date: $100.40