Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis

Whenever his daily work schedule permits, HorseRaceInsider executive editor John Pricci will analyze that day's feature race from a major thoroughbred-racing jurisdiction.

Wednesday, October 19, 2011

Finally, Some Good News

Our racing week will begin at Keeneland and the feature in Lexington today is a preliminary allowances at 10 furlongs. The problem is that the 7th race favorite, Newsdad (1-1), will be a very tough out.

Freshened since August, the Bill Mott trainee has been training with purpose at his Churchill base. The three year old still has upside potential against this group of elders, he’s getting big-time class relief--beaten a length in the Blue Grass this spring--earnest a lifetime best performance figure in the process. Further, he reunites with winning riding Castanon.

Taking Newsdad to win, no price restrictions, nd an exacta box with surface loving Pleasant Run (9-2), bred for today’s longer trip and picking up Leparoux.

Running Totals: (950) 294-191-136 Total Dollar Return: $2,025.10 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


Sunday, October 16, 2011

Confidence, or Con Game?

Today’s optional claiming allowances, the 9th race at 1/16th miles on what likely will be “good” turf has attracted a full field and it would appear that War Hoot (3-1) is a deserving favorite.

Not only does the Chad Brown runner have a class edge as he drops a notch here, but he’s earned consistently good figures that on most occasions are superior to the group. The presence of Dominguez doesn’t hurt, obviously.

But we’ve had Veiled Prophet on our horses to watch list since the spring and two starts back he made a barn change to Rudy Rodriquez. In his first start off the claim, a rescheduled turf race on the main track at 7 furlongs, he showed much improved seed, surprising in that he was turning back off a Turf Decline Line going longer in his turf prior.

We see the rise from $35,000 to $60,000 as a sign of either extreme confidence or wait until next time. Given the 10-1 early line and the chances he likely will be there, thereabouts at post time, we’ll pay to find out.

Taking Veiled Prophet to win at 9-1 or greater and key boxing in multiples with the favorite, sharp ship-in Bad Debt, price shot Feels All Right (10-1) and the class dropping Monument Hill (4-1).

Running Totals: (949) 294-191-136 Total Dollar Return: $2,025.10 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


Saturday, October 15, 2011

This Time, Shirreffs in Spoiler Role

Any HRI regular knows what I think of Winter Memories (9-5) the early line favorite for Keeneland's prestigious Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes for 3-year-old turf fillies. She's special and she'll do what she needs to do to win the race she's been pointed toward since February. But to paraphrase Damon Runyon, sort of, she's not the filly to bet.

John Shirreffs is coming to town with an incupled duo and the one that looks most interesting to us is Nereid (6-1), a filly that's never regressed on the Equiform scale. Her figure last time out was as good as any member of this field, including the impressive Summer Soiree (2-1). She has excellent, tactical speed and a well timed run makes an upset possible. We'll take the value with a highly conservative trainer that's batting a profitable 38% with his shippers.

Taking Nereid to win at 5-1 or greater and boxing her in the exacta with Winter Memories.

Running Totals: (947) 294-191-135 Total Dollar Return: $2,025.10 [win selections only] {Friday results not included]

Written by John Pricci


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