Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis
Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks
. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.
In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line"
column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line"
Friday, February 05, 2010
What a Wake-Up Call
Today’s New York Feature, the Personal Girl Stakes for state-bred fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs, features an enigmatic filly that deserves absolutely one last chance.
Yes, the connections got a little too aggressive with What A Pear (8-1) after she went on a tear over this track last year. Ever since she was thrown to the tigresses, she just hasn’t been the same filly.
Frustrated, the owners changed trainers and Pat Reynolds will saddle her for the second time today, with some notable changes. First, Reynolds adds blinkers, a profitable move for the barn although only winning at a 12% rate in that scenario--so he’s getting horses to outrun odds after adding the hood.
Second, her recent work, presumably wearing those new blinkers, was sensational, going a half mile from the gate in :48-flat, termed breezing. It was the third fastest of 135 older fillies to work the distance that week.
Getting Migliore on the re-ride, presuming he’s fully recovered from a recent concussion, What a Pear turns back into a sprint; she’s 1-for-1 at the distance and 4-for-5 over the surface.
Finally, she earned an internal six furlong Equiform figure in her recent route that would blow this field away.
Taking What A Pear to wake up at 9-2 or greater, keying her first and second in multiple pools with potential trip-sitters Silvercup Baby (4-1) and Afleet Alexandra (7-2), and the consistently speedy Meese Rocks (3-), whose been a revelation since winding up under the Ed Barker shed.
Running Totals: (588) 185-119-80 Total Dollar Return: $1,287.70 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Thursday, February 04, 2010
Today’s New York feature is a preliminary allowances for older state-bred fillies going a mile and 70 yards. Don’t think there’s any getting away from the fact that it looks like a battle of favorites; Imthequeenofqueens (2-1) and Bearursa (3-1).
Imthequeenofqueens has developmental potential as a newly turned four-year-old, comes from a live race that has produced one winner from two subsequent starters. She’s earned competitive figures with consistency but needs perfect handling to get the job done.
Bearursa, besides being a better price on the early line, hails from the Asmussen barn that has won with five of its last eight local starters, including three seconds. Ramon Dominguez leaves the favorite to take this ride, she’s had the benefit of a sprint prep over the track and is helped by today’s added ground.
Most of all, however, it’s her consistently higher figures vs. open company in Canada that rates her the call here. She might be more of a synthetics specialist but deserves a second chance against state-breds and what should prove the better distance.
Taking Bearursa to win at 2-1 or greater, and keying her in the multiples with Imthequeenofqueens and Kaffiend (5-1), who’s shown a fondness for the surface and owns the kind of speed that will have her in this one throughout.
Running Totals: (587) 184-119-80 Total Dollar Return: $1,284.50 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Wednesday, February 03, 2010
Frank “Pancho” Martin, Remember Him?
With rain expected to continue in South Florida, we’ll return to New York for today’s feature which, if purse size is the measure, the 7th race for state-breds, a preliminary allowances-optional claimer at 9 furlongs.
Diamond District (9-5) is a worthy and obvious choice. He’s improved in two recent starts for Gary Contessa, earning top figure scores and now picks up Ramon Dominguez. On paper, he’s a tough out, but there are two agonizing issues.
The turnback from 10 furlongs to nine could be problematical for this pace presser. His speed might have been dulled sufficiently in that mile and a quarter test and he might be uncomfortable neat the lead under those conditions. Further, his last was his first start with a bar shoe.
Sometimes you get away with one but two straight efforts, on relatively short rest, could be an issue. At expected odds on, we’ll look for another.
It’s hard to remember sometimes but Frank Martin is in the Hall of Fame. He’s done a great job with the 6-year-old gelding French Transition (6-1) that ran away and hid from a group of $7,500 claimers last time out.
Twenty-three percent effective using Gabriel Saez, on the re-ride here, he’s taking a confident class rise. Martin’s enjoying a resurgent meet. He has a good chance to saddle his fifth winner at the current meet here.
Taking French Transition at 9-2 or greater, and keying him first and second in trifectas Diamond District, Smart Enuf (7-2), Rises The Phoenix (4-1) and Typhoon Tycoon (20-1).
Running Totals: (586) 184-118-80 Total Dollar Return: $1,284.50 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci