Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis
Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks
. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.
In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line"
column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line"
Saturday, May 10, 2008
A Spike in the Market
It’s not often this daily feature gets to analyze a prep for the third leg of racing’s Triple Crown.
The Grade 2 nine furlong Peter Pan has drawn an eclectic group. Casino Drive, from the dam that produced the last two Belmont winners, is the 2-1 favorite off an 11 length score in his native Japan. At the price, no think you, he must prove he fits with a group like this.
Only two of these runners are likely to land on the top of my exotic tickets; Tomcito (6-1) and Golden Spikes (3-1).
Tomcito will probably half his early line odds by post time. A strong finish, albeit distance, third in Big Brown’s Florida Derby, his Lexington is better than it looked because he was compelled to race closer to the early pace, not his preferred style. His two U.S. starts have been good, the added distance suits, and he gets a switch to the very effective Cornelio Velasquez. He worked a bullet in preparation for this.
Golden Spikes simply keeps improving. He broke through to run an excellent figure in December sprinting at Calder and broke through again, distributing his energy much more efficiently when second to Recapturetheglory in the rapidly run Illinois Derby. With five weeks rest, a stalk and pounce style that suits today’s race shape, and a switch to Edgar Prado, he is the most probably winner at fair odds.
Taking Golden Spikes to win at 5-2 and an exacta box with Tomcito. Trifecta players can use Ready’s Echo (6-1) and Cosmic (8-1) second and third.
Running Totals: (205) 66-44-24. Total Dollar Return: $409.00 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Friday, May 09, 2008
Looky Here, Tight Storm’s the Value
Today’s feature at Belmont Park is a non-winners of “three other than” or optional claiming $75,000 for older fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs. A short field of five and hoping that, unlike yesterday, a late scratch would change the dynamic and render a potential wager meaningless.
This one appears to be a battle between Looky Yonder (2-1) and Tight Storm (5-2). Looky Yonder is the logical favorite coming out of a rough trip second in the Grade 2 Madison at Keeneland. In fact, she’s had a lot of stakes experience of late and undressed an allowance field when racing in a secondary allowance condition. This is the next logical step, getting class relief while picking up Garrett Gomez.
As one might expect, Tight Storm showed improvement in her first start for Gary Contessa last out. The four-year-old filly returns off a brief freshening sporting a series of steady breezes. Channing Hill rides the filly back after being aboard for her latest much improved effort. With upside potential as a four-year-old, she might offer value in a short field, barring scratches, of course.
Taking Tight Storm at early line odds of 5-2 and an exacta box with Looky Yonder.
Running Totals: (204) 66-44-23. Total Dollar Return: $409.00 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Thursday, May 08, 2008
Turf Pace in Decline but Things Looking Up for Namaste’s Wish
Today’s feature is an interesting one, the Gaviola for three-year-old turf fillies going a mile and a sixteenth on the on the Widener turf course. Yesterday, the Irish rail was not used but today’s forecast calls for a 50 percent chance of thunderstorms. The selections are for turf only.
We’re making it a two horse event between I Lost My Choo and Namaste’s Wish (4-1). The good news is that value might be available here.
The bad news is that I Love My Choo is a deserving favorite. Three for three on grass, she tried the Grade 3 Appalachian last time out at Keeneland and just missed in a grudging loss after chasing the pace throughout while rank, a tough trip to say the least. Two for two at the distance, nicely drawn, and with Prado, she’ll be a tough out.
Namaste’s Wish, winner of the Miss Grillo at two in her only start on this course, she raced extremely wide behind the choice in her season’s debut. In addition to the wide trip, she was hindered by a very slow pace. Given the conditioning gained, she has a chance to break through her two-year-old top effort, which is faster than these have run this year, with the exception of the favorite.
Taking Namaste’s Wish to win at 3-1 or greater and an exacta box with the likely favorite.
Running Totals: (203) 66-43-23. Total Dollar Return: $409.00 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci