Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis

Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.

In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line" column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line" banner.

Sunday, January 11, 2009

Cammy Should Be the Choice

Today’s feature is the Soft Morning Stakes restricted to New York bred fillies and mares and appears to be a two-horse battle between the two favorites, the prolific By The Light (8-5) and the sharp invader, Cammy’s Choice (2-1). And if figures are the measure--which they are--the linemaker may have the wrong favorite listed here.

We won’t knock the favorite, considering her (11) 7-3-0 slate, her connections--Dutrow and Richard Migliore--and her style. A mid-race stalker with a favorable outside draw, she figures to get a closing jump on Cammy’s Choice when time comes to run down the speed, of which there is plenty here.

But Cammy’s Choice has significantly faster final figures, hails from a going concern, with trainer Eddie Lehman, who’s posted a lofty 38 percent strike rate and huge ROI figures. She’s had sufficient recovery time since both recent wins following the barn change and her Pha. Park-based rider ships up the turnpike for the ride. We’re taking her to run down the early favorite.

Backing Cammy’s Choice to win at 3-2 or greater and a cold exacta with By The Light.

Running Totals: (342) 103-70-46. Total Dollar Return: $731.90 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


Saturday, January 10, 2009

Taking Value in Contentious Busanda

Today’s Busanda Stakes for three-year-old fillies at a mile and 70 yards is an interesting affair in that much is to be learned about these lightly campaigned young ladies. Is Flashing (3-1) as good as her debut run, pedigree and white hot connections suggests?

What about the undefeated Fitz Just Right (8-1), going in the right direction and hailing from top connections serious enough to send her over to Aqueduct from her new Belmont Park base for a bullet workout over today’s track?

How about Missunitednations (8-1), coming from the same race as the 2-for-2 Fitz Just Right and from a barn that specializes in these non-graded events and showed a profit for all of last year? Or Southern Charmer (7-2), who appears to be sitting on a big effort from the pole position.

But is one sprint race enough of a career for Flashing to win this move up in class and distance? Why was Fitz Just Right campaigned out of town instead of staying at home for local connections? And will the outside draw and pace scenario all but eliminate Missunitednations from win consideration? Good questions all.

That's why Pumpkin Shell (6-1) is an interesting way to go. She developing very well, coming off two favorable Equiform patterns despite intervening turf races. She, too, is well positioned, and appears eligibility to slip between the parimutuel cracks in this contentious heat providing, of course, that Flashing isn't a special filly, which she just might be.

Taking Pumpkin Shell to win at 8-1 or greater, and exacta box with Flashing, and keying her first and second in trifectas with her rivals mentioned here.

Running Totals: (341) 102-70-46. Total Dollar Return: $705.10 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


Friday, January 09, 2009

Weathering the Storm

It won’t be as easy as it looks on paper, but with two sprint-speed types stretching out to one mile on the winter track likely to engage in a duel in today’s Plankton Stakes for fillies and mares, it looks like an excellent set-up for early line favorite Weathered (9-5).

The speed fillies are Miss Blue Tye Dye (4-1), shipping up extremely sharp from Philly Park, and Ididntmeantoo (2-1), much improved since shipping East into Rick Dutrow’s barn. Either of these fillies would be more than capable of leading these throughout if not for the presence of the other. A scratch of either would make the other quite formidable.

Barring that, Weathered is a filly with tactical speed and kick, has good form over the surface and an excellent record at the trip. Further she has good and consistent performance figures, improved pace figures, and the position conscious Mike Luzzi is likely to use his filly’s tactical speed to ensure a good trip. Hopefully, too, the Dutrow filly will attract heavy play so that Weathered will be bettable at post time.

Taking Weathered to win at 3-2 or greater and keying her first and second in trifectas with her rivals here, and first in exactas.

Running Totals: (340) 102-70-45. Total Dollar Return: $705.10 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


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