Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis

Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.

In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line" column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line" banner.

Friday, April 02, 2010

Castaneda, not the rider, the horse!

Today’s Aqueduct feature, a secondary allowances-optional claimer for state-breds three-year-olds and up is one of those sprints fraught with questions where you can make cases for half the field--not strong cases, but cases nonetheless.

But rather than guess, we’ll take the horse with the best recent race, a three-year-old that obviously still has upside, and one scratched out of tomorrow’s G2 open Bay Shore at 7 furlongs for a New York bred spot at three-quarters, the distance of his most recent win.

Castaneda (3-1) is the most likely winner, especially with a repeat of his most recent effort. Perhaps the money to be made, if any, will come in the multiple pools.

Taking sharp working Castaneda to win at 2-1 or greater and keying him first and second in multiple pools with Tellmefirst (20-1), Goodandacceptable (20-1) and Regal Prince (6-1).

Running Totals: (622) 193-125-88 Total Dollar Return: $1,344.60 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


Thursday, April 01, 2010

Full Play on Half Metal Jacket

Today’s allowance feature on the Aqueduct main track, a secondary allowances-optional claimer going a flat mile has attracted a competitive and fairly talented group.

Wish I know what to do with early favorite The Roundhouse. His recent inner track sprint win was excellent but coming back in five days is very un-Pletcher and while we’re talking best and fastest recent form here, the 3-1 early favorite is not really at his best going this far on this surface. The percentage move is to bet against.

The logical play, given the race-shape conditions, is Half Metal Jacket (9-2). Two-for-two over this surface and also twice a winner at 8 furlongs, he finished ahead of The Roundhouse last out, has the conditioning off a recent route effort, has tactical speed and kick and switches to David Cohen, a 31 percent profitable player for this barn.

Taking Half Metal Jacket to win at 7-2 or greater, and keying him first and second in multiple pools with The Roundhouse, Chris Got Even (8-1), third off the layup for Zito, and Broadway Producer (10-1) who suits the conditions well and returns with the right spacing for Terranova.

Running Totals: (621) 192-125-88 Total Dollar Return: $1,339.50 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


Wednesday, March 31, 2010

Nina Springs Eternal

Today’s feature on the Gulfstream turf course features a favorite that’s worth trying to beat. While America’s Dreaming does reunite with winning partner Alan Garcia and is making his second start off a layup, his performances figures do not really justify 5-2 favoritism.

The two interesting fillies in here are Loxy Lady (4-1), returning to her best distance, and Nina Springs (6-1), who ships south for Jane Cibelli.

Loxy Lady not only returns to a distance that has produced two of her three lifetime victories but is reunited with Jose Lezcano, aboard for her mile victory at Saratoga and hails from a barn (Mark Henning’s) that 21 percent efficient with third-off-layup runners.

But Nina Springs is a bit more compelling. As a newly turned 4-year-old, she still has some upside development, comes from a key race Tampa route producing two next out winners, and likely will find this course more suited to her speed-stalking style.

Elvis Trujillo is 1-for-1 on this miss and Ms. Cibelli shows a profit with her ship-in starters. The turnback to one mile (2) 1-1-0 suits well, as does her 6-1 early odds line.

Taking Nina Springs to win at 4-1 or greater, an exacta box with Loxy Lady, and adding America’s Dreaming to the trifecta mix.

Running Totals: (620) 191-125-88 Total Dollar Return: $1,323.30 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


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