Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis

Whenever his daily work schedule permits, HorseRaceInsider executive editor John Pricci will analyze that day's feature race from a major thoroughbred-racing jurisdiction.

Saturday, May 01, 2010

Going For Derby Gusto

This is in addition to the wager proposed in the Pricci Morning Line blog on the lead page. Ultimately, for me, much will depend on track conditions and how the track is playing throughout the day.

In trifectas, we're keying our top choice, Super Saver, in three positions; first, second and third. With Super Saver, we're combining Lookin At Lucky, American Lion, Paddy O' Prado, Devil May Care, Mission Impazible and Awesome Act. For a $1-minimum wager, each position requires a cost of $30. But if Super Saver can hit the board with any of these horses, a good payoff is assured, perhaps even a very big payday.

Going for more gusto, repeat the above sequences and add extreme longshot Dean's Kitten to the superfecta mix.

I will not be playing the supers for two reasons: In protest and it's too costly without the benefit of the Dime Super wager, unavailable on Oaks and Derby Day, just like the 50-Cent trifecta.

As stated, this is a race horseplayers should feel obliged to overbet. But never bet in disproportion to one’s bankroll. It's the one good piece advice NYC-OTB ever gave their customers: "Bet With Your Head, Not Over It."

Way to get the little guy and the tourists involved in the wagering process, CDI!

Running Totals: (640) 201-129-89 Total Dollar Return: $1,394.40 [win selections only] {Friday results not included}

Written by John Pricci


Friday, April 30, 2010

Amen Hallelujah, it’s Blind Luck

Today’s Kentucky Oaks might have been one of the most exciting renewals in years but instead Devil May Care will bring her worthy talents into tomorrow’s Derby and avoid a confrontation with Blind Luck (6-5).

Blind Luck has had two starts on dirt. In the first, she broke her maiden at Calder by about a hundred lengths. Then, last out in Oaklawn’s Fantasy, she finished boldly to win going away and earn a two performance figure that rivaled Eskendereya’s.

I hate the philosophy that horses can bounce and win. The trouble is that one never knows how far. But she’s far superior to her rivals here, trainer Jerry Hollander has won this race twice, has pointed to it, and she’s had four weeks since the Fantasy.

This field is deep with contenders, the best of these appearing to be Amen Hallelujah (8-1). She’s had a good winter in Florida, has been handled confidently by trainer Rick Dutrow, is very consistent and is in top hands with Leparoux. The speedy filly will need Julien’s soft hands to engineer a good trip from the 13 slip.

Taking Blind Luck to win, no price restrictions, an exacta box with Amen Hallelujah and adding price shot It’s Tea Time (15-1), to the multiple pools mix.

Also making an 2x3 Oaks-Derby Double, combining Blind Luck and Amen Hallelujah in the Oaks with Super Saver, Awesome Act and Lucky At Lucky in the Derby, extra tickets with Blind Luck.

Running Totals: (640) 201-129-89 Total Dollar Return: $1,394.40 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


Thursday, April 29, 2010

Negligee’s Season Takes Off at Churchill

Today’s feature at Churchill Downs is the overnight Edgewood Stakes on turf for three-year-old fillies, Could it be that the crowd will think Negligee’s (9-5) return was so disappointing and, combined with the fact it’s her turf debut, will allow her to get away at bettable odds? Well that’s what we’re hoping.

Clearly, she is the “fastest” on performance figures and most accomplished member in the 9-horse lineup. It will pay to note that trainer John Terranova is profitable when removing blinkers and has made a career out of winning non-graded events: He's 30 percent efficient. Negligee’s had her mettle tested in G1 company, winning the Alcibiades at 2. Class on the grass? You betcha!

Taking Negligee to win, no price restrictions, and keying her first and second in the multiples with Potosina (3-1), making her first start since the Juvenile Fillies Turf for a 24 percent return trainer; Cactus Cadillac (20-1) for a barn that’s a profitable 21 percent in that scenario; Midway Holiday (4-1), 2-for-2 and switching to Gomez, and Dynacare (3-1), who showed promise in her lone turf (stakes) start and is picking up Leparoux.

Running Totals: (639) 201-128-89 Total Dollar Return: $1,394.40 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


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