Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis
Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks
. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.
In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line"
column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line"
Friday, August 10, 2007
All Todd All The TIme
An overnight stakes, The Heed, for three-year-old fillies going a mile on the inner turf. There is a forecast for showers. Should the race be rescheduled to the main track, Awesome Ashley would be the most probable winner.
Meanwhile, today’s winner likely will come from the Todd Pletcher shed, anyway, such was the quality of Christies Treasure’s (3-1) recent effort. She would have won the Tweedside had it not been for a bad stumble leaving the gate. Following that might have been a premature move into contention. She finished one-paced late. But the pace was slow, too, and the pace was hungry. Still, her performance figure vs. older fillies was the fastest on the page.
The competition will come from Pay Wright (9-2), Unspoken Word (4-1) and Luna Dorado (15-1) and Le Chateau (20-1).
Pay Wright should benefit from her recent prep race vs. colts. She raced well on Spa grass last year and stretches to a more suitable distance and reunites with Eibar Coa, aboard for both recent victories. She has tactical speed and the pole, too.
Unspoken Word set the pace when third behind Christies Treasure two back and she earns good figures with consistency. She picks up hot riding Kent Desormeaux.
Luna Dorada is a huge price on the early line. She earned a competitive figure when narrowly beaten over yielding ground in one of these two back in Churchill and her effort in the Grade 3 Regret was better than it looked.
Le Chateau is a late developing Chester House filly that’s been ambitiously placed in recent starts. She makes her first start for Wayne Lukas and switches to Cornelio Velasquez, Wayne’s go-to guy in Saratoga. She took can prove an interest price play.
Taking Christies Treasure to win at 2-1 or greater and keying her first and second in trifectas with the four other fillies.
Running Totals: (77) 34-16-10 Dollar Return $197.70 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Thursday, August 09, 2007
The Old Stature of Liberty Play: Laurentide Ice
Today it’s the ladies’ turn, the New York Stallion series, Statue of Liberty division, for three-year-old fillies going nine furlongs on the inner turf course. This race is not as neatly defined as the boys were yesterday, with many either trying turf, going long for the first time, and other assorted puzzles.
Of the eight entered, we’re taking a closer look at four of them, from the inside, out, Don’t Mind Me (2-1), Tishmeister (6-1), Laurentide Ice (7-2) and Karakorum Elektra (10-1).
Don’t Mind Me is the favorite, understandably. She broke her debut at two on the Saratoga turf and never has taken a backward step on performance figures. She is, by definition, the second fastest filly in here, she hails from a white hot Galluscio barn and picks up Ramon Dominguez. She has pedigree on both sides suited to today’s stretchout. Her early line odds are a bit short, however.
Tishmeister is the fastest filly and has the benefit of a recent race over this course. After her maiden breaker two back, she set the pace but settled for second on July 26. The odds are more than fair. The problems are that her speedy style is anti-profile and has that lone win but five seconds in 14 career tries. JJ Castellano suits her nicely.
Laurentide Ice has better figures on dirt but her grass debut was OK, considering she broke from the 10 post in a field of 10 and raced very wide off a hungry pace in that turf debut. Interestingly, the hot Kent Desormeaux chooses her over the early line favorite. On all counts that makes her interesting.
Karakorum Elektra was sharpened for speed in a recent turf sprint but has come from off the pace successfully going long, breaking her maiden May 3rd. She figures to benefit from her most recent start.
Taking Laurentide Ice to win at 5-2 or greater and keying her in three trifecta positions with the other three fillies.
Running Totals: (76) 34-16-10 Dollar Return: $197.70
Written by John Pricci
Wednesday, August 08, 2007
Get Serious About Today’s Spa Feature
Week 3 begins with the Cab Calloway division of the New York Stallion series for three-year-old state-bred colts going nine furlongs on the Spa inner turf course. It has drawn a good-sized field and we’ll narrow our focus to three: Thunderestimate (5-2), Get Serious (3-1) and Good Prospect (8-1).
While Thunderestimate appears a nice colt seeking his fourth straight victory and never has taken a backward step on performance figures, he doesn’t enjoy the kind of wide edge over his rivals that his record might suggest at short odds. Also, he's making his first start at today’s extended distance.
The fastest horse in the race is the shipper, Get Serious. Going back to early spring, he’s been trained like a good horse, showed improvement to win his second start in fast time, then was ambitiously placed in an open company stakes, his two turn debut, the Long Branch, a race that typically attracts some talented three-year-olds.
This year was no exception when First Defence shipped over from New York for Bobby Frankel and won the event convincingly at a very short price, earning an excellent figure. But Get Serious was a very good second. The rub here is that he has no turf experience, a shortcoming that didn’t stop Nobiz Like Shobiz in Monday’s Hall of Fame. Either you like turf or you don’t. Get Serious gets a chance to prove it while meeting state-breds for the first time. Bred for turf on top and distance on the bottom of his pedigree, he should be a very tough out.
Good Prospect is a colt with better than a puncher’s chance to upset. His most recent turf figure was competitive with the early line favorite’s, and he’s continued to improve since that race. Today he reunites with Johnny Velazquez, aboard for a turf win at today’s route. That's not insignificant. Today's favorites can make no mistakes.
We rarely do this, but we’re suggesting two win plays (though only one will be reflected in the running totals).
Taking Get Serious to win at 2-1 or greater, and a saver wager on Good Prospect at 5-1 or more. Additionally, taking an exacta part wheel of Get Serious and Good Prospect with each other and Thunderestimate for second to complete the play.
Running Totals: (76) 34-16-10. Dollar Return: $197.70 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci