Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis
Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks
. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.
In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line"
column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line"
Wednesday, April 25, 2007
Small Fields Yield Limited Opportunties
As we’ve stated before, small-field racing, in addition to providing few value opportunities, can be trappy. Jockeys have as much to do with the outcome as the horses. Today’s five-horse preliminary allowance feature at nine furlongs for older horses is a good example.
The three logical horses are, from the rail out, Marital Asset, R J’s Brigade and Tommasi. The rail horse is the most probable winner.
Marital Asset, like many A.P. Indy’s, is late developing, coming into his own this year as a four-year-old. He asserted himself last time out, coinciding with added distance, for which he is suited by pedigree, and the addition of blinkers, which presumably relates to both disposition and relative immaturity.
The March 21 two-turner was only ’Asset’s’ fifth lifetime start. Owning a nice blend of tactical speed and finishing power, his rail position gets him in the game immediately. With sufficient speed signed on despite the lack of numbers here, Eibar Coa should establish himself and sit still until ready. The anticipated payoff would not make anyone rich.
Tommasi will lack position in the early going but his grind-it-out, middle-move style, coupled with his love of the surface (two wins and a second in three career starts) should find him finishing with interest in the late stages. On performance figures, he has consistently proven to be the fastest horse.
R J’s Brigade is the most intriguing. Nearly as fast as Tommasi, trainer Kiaran McLaughlin is adept with the turf-to-dirt move, his horses establishing a lifetime best 31% of the time in that scenario. McLaughlin’s horses have been establishing new tops at an alarming rate during the last three months. R J’s Brigade might prove the value in this small, competitive field.
Would take Marital Asset to win at 6-5 or greater. Exacta part wheel of Marital Asset and R J’s Brigade with Marital Asset, R J’s Brigade and Tommasi, extra ticket with Marital Asset.
Written by John Pricci
When Read Is Tricky Value A Must
Today’s feature race at Aqueduct, a preliminary allowances for state-bred three-year-olds going seven furlongs, is a tricky read. Each major contender has pluses and minuses. In terms of making a wager, post time odds will never be as significant as it is in races of this type.
The contenders are Radio Freq (5-2), Victorious Affair (3-1) and Stunt Man at 9-2.
The early line favorite was a game winner of his maiden debut. He battled on the lead throughout then gamely held his advantage while dogged by a rival through the stretch. Radio Freq comes back with sufficient rest and trainer Charlton Baker’s three-year-old runners move to a new top effort nearly half the time in their second career starts. However, he moves up in class and distance for the second career run.
Victorious Affair, meanwhile, hails from the George Weaver shed, a barn whose three-year-olds keep moving forward before peaking in their third lifetime start. That’s the case here, although this colt ran its best race on a wet surface for which he is suited by pedigree.
Stunt Man has fewer negatives than his main rivals, although he is meeting classier competition. Off-setting that, however, is the fact he is the fastest horse on performance figures, has experience at a similar distance and a trainer whose horses win more often in their second start for the new barn.
Gary Contessa’s horse improved right off the claim to earn that top figure when third last out. But if the trainer’s personal stats are the measure, then another forward move is forthcoming. A repeat of his last would easily be good enough to win here.
Taking Stunt Man to win at 7-2 or greater. Making exacta key boxes of Stunt Man with Radio Freq and Victorious Affair.
Written by John Pricci
Saturday, April 21, 2007
Feature Race Analysis for Sunday, April 22, 2007
Rather Lay the Favorite Than Play the Favorite
Let's look at the Park Avenue Division, that is to say, the distaff half of the New York Stallion Stakes for New York-breds going as today’s seventh race at Aqueduct.
You’ll need no search warrant to find the favorite here. That would be early line choice Mighty Eros (5-2), who won his debut by a pole in exceptionally fast time. She has sufficient recovery time coming back for this--six weeks--but she’ll need to be stronger later, given today’s added furlong.
As the likely heavy favorite, however, we must play ‘Eros’ to back up.
The filly that figures to improve is Laurentide Ice (7-2) for Mark Hennig. Visually she appeared in need of her recent return from a layup, and the stats may back up that perception. Hennig is around 12% effective coming off a lengthy break but almost 18% in his second start returning from a layoff.
Laurentide Ice proved she was fast enough in her maiden effort at two. More recently her best figure was earned going a flat mile, a similar dynamic to today’s seven furlongs. Returning from his home base, where he won the Federico Tesio yesterday with Xchanger as easily as horses win races, Ramon Dominguez is likely to work out a ground-saving journey before setting sail into the long Aqueduct straight.
Taking Laurentide Ice to win, at 3-1 or greater; exacta box with Mighty Eros.
Written by John Pricci