Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis

Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.

In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line" column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line" banner.

Friday, October 12, 2007

Dorm Fever Hot Horse in Belmont Feature

Today’s feature is a non grass event. That’s no typo. It’s the listed Life’s Magic Stakes for three-year-old fillies at seven furlongs. Sadly, it looks like it will come down to a battle of the two early line choices: Dorm Fever (3-1) and City Bird (7-2).

Dorm Fever found herself on the lead--not her game--in the recent Grade 1 Gazelle at a mile. Understandably, she tired after being pressured throughout. But today she turns back to a distance at which she’s 1-for-1, an excellent figure score over this surface on a wet surface, conditions that might prevail today. Eddie Castro takes the call for Jimmy Jerkens, who’s 28 percent effective when going from sprint to route to sprint, as is Dorm Fever today.

The connections for City Bird couldn’t be an more high profile; a Frank Stronach owned filly trained b Dick Dutrow. That’s what not makes her a formidable rival here. It’s her performance figure going 6-½ furlongs at Saratoga two starts back, the best in the race. The hybrid distance isn’t quite 7/8s, but the dynamics are very similar. Dutrow’s horses are also very effective turning back--27 percent--and her spacing, 31 days, looks perfect.

But we’ll take the class tested Dorm Fever to win at 5-2 or more and an exacta box with City Bird.

Running Totals: (118) 41-27-13. Running Totals: $238.30 [win selections only] {Thursday’s feature race was cancelled}

Written by John Pricci

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Thursday, October 11, 2007

Danger To Renaissance Lady on Also-Eligibles

Another turf feature to begin the Belmont week but at least we’re going longer today, a mile and a sixteenth on the Widener course for three-year-olds and up, a secondary allowances, $50,000 optional claiming.

Favorite Lady Renaissance (5-2) looks like she holds a wide edge here, coming back for Christophe Clement. Her main rivals are anchored on the also-eligibles, Bridal Path (20-1) and Waquoit’s Love (9-2).

Lady Renaissance is the fastest mare on performance figures, has an excellent turn of foot, top connections and fit’s the race shape nicely. Her outside post is not a positive but she figures to drop well back and come running late for Garrett Gomez, absolutely scary on one-run grass horses. She fits this group nicely.

Bridal Path is the better half of the Peter Kazamias trained coupling. Kazamias is batting a profitable 21 percent for the year and has excellent stats in the second start-off-the-claim category, a scenario both entrants find themselves in here. The early line odds are out of line, given her performance figures and live connections. Seven of nice career wins on grass were at today’s distance.

Waquoit’s Love, like the other fillies mentioned, was compromised by a moderate pace last out and figures to improve markedly. A sharp winner in allowance company last out, she reunites with Cornelio Velasquez, aboard for a victory earlier this summer. She owns a win and placing in three starts on Belmont grass.

Taking Lady Renaissance to win at 2-1 or greater, a possible saver win wager on Bridal Path at 12-1 or greater if she draws in, and exacta key boxes with Lady Renaissance with the other two fillies.

Running Totals: (118) 41-27-13. Dollar Return: $238.40 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci

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Monday, October 08, 2007

Euro Invader Well Placed in Pebbles

A rare Monday feature in celebration of Columbus Day, the un-graded Pebbles for three-year-old fillies at a mile n the Belmont grass.

This being fall, European invaders show up fairly regularly and the Pebbles has attracted strong contender Medley (5-2). The best American hopes appear to be Queen Joanne (7-2) and New Edition (5-1).

Medley ships in having won two of her last three starts. Her European figures have been more than competitive and foreign sprinters like Medley have proven to make excellent American milers. Christophe Clement wins at a 24% rate with his first-time in U.S. shippers and has been enjoying uncommon success with Garrett Gomez, who takes the mount here. Expect Garrett will keep her covered up inside until he’s ready to pull the string.

Lady Joanne has won two straight for Bill Mott including a score at this distance two back. The problem is that victory came at Saratoga, making it a two turn race. This, obviously, is around one. She’s developed nicely for Mott but was hard pressed to defeat preliminary allowance runners last out.

New Edition has been keep the best company. A pacesetter before tiring in the Grade 1 Garden City at nine furlongs, she placed gamely in the G2 Lake Placid two back for trainer Larry Jones. She has conditioning off a series of turf routes and in young Gabriel Saez has a rider with a bright future. Jones has been using the youngster with success this season. She will be charging down the Widener turf course in the late stages.

Taking the classy invader Medley to win at 8-5 or greater and keying first and second in exactas with her main rivals.

Running Totals: (117) 41-27-13. Dollar Return: $238.40 [win selections only] {Sunday’s results not included}

Written by John Pricci

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