Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis

Whenever his daily work schedule permits, HorseRaceInsider executive editor John Pricci will analyze that day's feature race from a major thoroughbred-racing jurisdiction.

Thursday, December 03, 2009

Back to Basics in Today’s Feature

Time to go back to basics for analyzing today’s feature, the Chan Balan Stakes for three-year-olds going six furlongs. Clearly, everything favors early line 9-5 favorite African King; speed, pace, apparent class--everything but race shape, that is.

I don’t know how you can keep the fast working speedster Big Push from forcing the favorite to race on the engine throughout, setting the table for an off-the-pace type. And no horse appears to suit that bill better than Lobo Del Norte (4-1).

A late developer, his performance figures pattern looks healthy, he’s been improving incrementally, his style suits today’s pace scenario, and he ships in for a powerful ship-in barn, that of Ramon Preciado’s, a profitable 22% in this scenario and owning a recent slate of (2) 1-0-1. He and rider Abel Mariano are on a 36% winning tear over the last two months.

Taking Lobo Del Norte to win at 7-2 or greater and boxing him in the exacta with African King.

Running Totals: (554) 172-111-78 Total Dollar Return: $1,194.00 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


Wednesday, December 02, 2009

Hey, Take a Powder!

Despite the unofficial opening of the winter race meet in New York, today’s inner track debut card features some very talented and fleet three-year-old fillies in the overnight Tate S. Stakes at six furlongs.

The filly with the most upside for today’s race is Powder Princess (4-1).

Sent out by the Clement/Garcia team, she recent score showed the kind of improvement indicating that more is likely forthcoming and the five weeks between starts looks perfect. And no one suit’s the race shape better.

There’s a whole lot of early gas in here, including the fresh, undefeated second favorite, Boodles (7-2). But despite the recovery time, a regression looks logical here, especially given the stretchout from 5-½ furlongs.

The others having something say--about the pace and the outcome--are the accomplished favorite, Bold Union (2-1), improving price shot Seminole Lass (15-1) and Yes She's A Lucky Lady (6-1), turning back off a hot paced try and returning to a winning surface. But we’ll look to sit the pocket and the rest would be up to Garcia, however, this won’t be easy.

Taking Powder Princess to win at 9-2 or greater and keying her first and second in exotics with her four rivals here.

Running Totals: (553) 172-110-78 Total Dollar Return: $1,194.00 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


Sunday, November 29, 2009

A Long Way to Go for Even Money

The Aqueduct main track stakes finale is the overnight Power Lunch Stakes and you’ll get your money’s worth, too--all 14 furlongs of it which is, of course, 1-¾ miles. That’s where your money’s worth ends. If I told you that I thought I had a good chance to beat Atoned (1-1), I’d be lying.

On paper, he appears to have too much class, too much ability and, as a four-year-old, too much upside for the competition. Factor in the Pletcher/Velazquez connections and you can imagine what you’d be up against here.

The only chance to take decent money out of the race is an exotics play. Taking Atoned to win, no price restrictions, and keying him first with Malibu Moonshine (12-1), nicely suited by the conditions and 1-for-1 at the distance, third in trifectas and to complete a cold exacta.

Running Totals: (552) 172-109-78 Total Dollar Return: $1,194.00 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


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