Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis

Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.

In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line" column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line" banner.



Wednesday, December 31, 2014


No Substitute for Experience


Today's feature race at Gulfstream features two horses that have done nothing wrong of which one most likely will emerge the winner. But the race is a little trappy, fraught with wakeup potential.

The problem would be choosing the right one of four remaining entrants.

Instead, we will hope that the crowd will go a little overboard on the visually impressive maiden breaker Street Babe (5-2) and allow for a bettable price on the Todd/Johnny production, Biedermeier (2-1).

The attraction is the outer post in a small field, three races worth of experience, as opposed to one, and the fact that he's never taken a backward step on our Energy Rating scale. A fair price would be 8-5 or greater.

And so we're taking Biederman to win, an exacta box with Street Babe, and adding surface loving Fast Falcon (5-1) to the super-exotics mix.

Number of Selections since 2007: 1664

Number of Win and Place Finishes: 500-324

Amount Wagered: $3,328 [to win only]

Total Dollar Return on Investment: $3,461.20

Profit to Date: $133.20



Written by John Pricci

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Sunday, December 28, 2014


Storm’s a Brewin’


HRI has entered into a promotional relationship with 123.gaming.com in which each Sunday we analyze the six races that comprise their unique Pick 6 contest wager. The current featured track is Parx Racing. The following is a profile of races 4 through 9.

The bet is different from the traditional Pick 6 in that a player gets points for first, second, and third-place finishes (based on pari-mutuel payoffs) by his or her selections in each of the six races.

For example, if a player’s horse finished second, paying $4.00 to place and $3.00 to show, the player would receive 7 points toward his or her total. The player with the highest number of points accumulated during the sequence is declared the winner, collecting 60% of the net pool. The second and third highest-scoring players also get a share — 30% for second and 10% for third.

Sign up to play the wager at 123bet.com, make your selections, and follow the live national leaderboards after each race! And if you complete the Top 10, you get your $2 back.


Today's play for the Feature Race Analysis running totals is Almighty Storm to win at 3-1 or greater in the eighth race.

FOURTH: 4-ASTRAL (7-2) blew clear lead in rapidly run 6 furlongs now stakes confident rise with suitable pedigree for the stretchout; blinkers off can make all the difference. 1-SERENE QUEEN (10-1) has run well fresh and owns good back Energy Ratings; all lifetime wins this surface and a worthy (18) 5-5-2 at the trip.

FIFTH: 5-THOROUGHBRED FUEL (3-1) earned competitive Energy Rating last spring now returns with added maturity for Lynch, 18% effective with long layup returnees, and adds first Lasix.

SIXTH: 3-EL POSOLE (3-1) raced head to head throughout rapidly run debut at this trip and held very well, earning top Energy Figure; barn having usual standout year (29%) and switches to live apprentice Ritvo.

SEVENTH: 4-MEDALLICIOUS (6-1) never has run this cheaply, has enough lick to dictate this throughout, has the top projected Energy Rating and attracts Ritvo; improvement expected.

EIGHTH: 4-ALMIGHTY STORM (9-2) has been competitive with tougher in the Midwest and ships in for Draper, who’s profitable in all relevant categories. 9-SATURDAY STORMS (5-2) to beat weaker by 10 in first start off the Preciado claim; repeats with similar effort though does return on very short rest. 10-BEAUTIFUL DANCER (10-1) returns at suitable longer trip for barn that’s profitable second time off the claim; excellent back figures and looms wakeup candidate with the drop.

NINTH: 8-IRISH SMARTY (3-1) ran off the screen when dropped to this level last out; easily repeats with similar effort. 2-LOVESHACKELD (6-1) has improved since the Lake claim; on good race/bad race/good race pattern.

SUGGESTED SEQUENCE: 4.10 with 5 with 3 with 4 with 4.9.10 with 2.8---$24

LIVE PRICE SHOTS:

Race 4: Serene Queen 10-1
Race 5: Simon the Cyrenian 8-1
Race 8: Beautiful Dancer 10-1
Race 9: He’s So Evil 12-1

Number of Selections since 2007: 1664

Number of Win and Place Finishes: 500-324

Amount Wagered: $3,328 [to win only]

Total Dollar Return on Investment: $3,461.20

Profit to Date: $133.20



Written by John Pricci

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Saturday, December 27, 2014


Looks Like the Right Candidate


With three Grade 3s to choose from on today's Gulfstream card, we'll go for the gusto in today's nominal big one, the William L McKnight Handicap for turf marathoners going 1-1/2 miles. On it's face, this one is double tough, which is why we're opting from any value offered on Manchurian High (12-1)

For a grass marathon, this one promises to have a realistic pace at this distance and that will suit the Marylander invader very nicely. When last seen, he was coming from last of 12 with a strong wide rally to win the Laurel Turf Cup [see replay]. He meets tougher here, admittedly, but should he succeed, you will be paid.

The 6YO has won over the course, and at the trip, and he also has some tactical speed should that need arise. Luis Saez, picking up the mount, has a good amount of success with this kind and given the dynamic.

Taking Manchurian High to win at 8-1 or greater, an exacta box with the classy Slumber (3-1), going first time for Chad Brown, and will add to the super-exotics mix both Pletcher entrants, Unitarian (6-1) and Divine Oath (9th) and sharp price shots, Calvados (15-1) and better than generally rated Margano (12-1) picking up the patient Julien, having a quietly good meet.

Number of Selections since 2007: 1663

Number of Win and Place Finishes: 500-324

Amount Wagered: $3,326 [to win only]

Total Dollar Return on Investment: $3,461.20

Profit to Date: $135.20



Written by John Pricci

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