Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis

Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.

In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line" column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line" banner.

Sunday, May 24, 2009

Fresh, Fit and Hopefully Dangerous

The time when you want to get a Carlos Martin trainee is when they are fresh, the longer the layup the better. In today’s all feature for state-bred fillies and mares going a mile and a sixteenth on the turf has drawn field. Meaning there’s a good chance that Sax In the City (5-1) will be bettable odds at or near the early line quote.

Her last win came at this trip, on this course, and Martin, a profitable 29 percent efficient in this scenario, will have her set for her best go. The main danger will come from Our Golden Dream (4-1), second off the layoff for Tom Bush following a promising return, and Paraiba (3-1), saddled by turf ace David Donk and ridden by Johnny Velazquez, a winner of two stakes in Chicago Saturday.

Taking Sax In the City to win at 4-1 or greater, keying her in exactas with her two rivals above. Trifecta players can add price shots Who Is Lady (15-1) and Debbie’s Fast Girl (20-1) to their mix.

Running Totals: (430) 129-88-58 Total Dollar Return: $876.00 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


Saturday, May 23, 2009

Does Shirreffs Know SOmething We Don’t?

After writing about Zenyatta’s season’s debut earlier today, I decided to await the Equiform figures to see how John Shirreffs fillies compared and you know what? Life Is Sweet has more than a puncher’s chance.

Except for one thing: Does this move make sense? Zenyatta, due to her inactivity, is beatable unless she comes with her ‘A’ race. Do I expect her to be wound as tightly as possible for her first start as a five-year-old? Come on.

Life Is Sweet’s performance figures have been marching forward since she turned 4, earning a 76-½ last time out. Off a 2-½ month freshening, it’s not impossible that she’ll improve again. And even if she doesn’t, she’s getting four pounds in weight.

As a 4-year-old last year, Zenyatta earned a better figure that Life Is Sweet’s last race on four occasions. Given today’s scenario and what both camps expect from their fillies, trained by the same man, their figures should be very close, given “Life’s” ‘A’ game and Zenyatta’s ‘A-’.

Taking Life Is Sweet to win at 5-2 or greater and an exacta box with Zenyatta in today’s Milady Handicap at Hollywood Park.

Running Totals: (429) 129-87-58 Total Dollar Return: $876.00 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


Friday, May 22, 2009

Wishful Thinking

Today’s Belmont Park feature is a state-bred stakes for older horses that has attracted some worthy speedsters and hard hitters going 8.5 furlongs. And just because Wishful Tomcat (7-5) looks almost impossible to beat on paper doesn’t mean money won’t be available in the multiple pools.

No question that the Rick Dutrow trained favorite will be a tough out. Racing in excellent form, the late developing 4-year-old ridgling broke through his career best effort last out by the kind of incremental that suggests another forward move is forthcoming.

Consistently among the fastest horses in the race, he is drawn outside for the run out of the chute in a short field and retains Ramon Dominguez who should have little problem riding this race as it comes up. While it’s true that the returning Stud Muffin is just as fast on performance figures, neither the horse nor the trainer seem to do their best when fresh, making the 5-2 second favorite a bet-against.

We’re taking Wishful Tomcat to win, no price restrictions and keying him in exactas and trifectas with South Fourth St. (10-1), 6-for-10 at the distance; Dr. V’s Magic (5-1), a course lover working well for his return and the favorite's most formidable rival, and Tommasi (6-1), who blew out smartly at Saratoga for his second start following a layup, a 23-percent efficient and profitable category for 007 Bond.

Running Totals: (428) 128-87-58 Total Dollar Return: $872.80 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


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