Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis

Whenever his daily work schedule permits, HorseRaceInsider executive editor John Pricci will analyze that day's feature race from a major thoroughbred-racing jurisdiction.

Wednesday, April 14, 2010

A Positive Position on Affirmatif

Today’s feature at Keeneland is a secondary allowances at 5-½ furlongs on turf, which appears a two horse affair between the top two choices.

Evacuation Route (7-2) ships in sharp from Fair Grounds with turf ace James Graham in the boot. He loves this sprint distance--both of his lifetime wins--and hails from a race that already has produced a subsequent winner from two starters. He can come from the clouds or take a tactical position.

But the time to get Affirmatif (8-5) is when he’s fresh, as his debut win at 3 attests. Entered in Saturday’s Shakertown, he was scratched in favor of this softer spot. He’s been training up a storm at Palm Meadows, presumably with the blinkers removed, attracts Garrett Gomez, and Todd Pletcher has been winning turf sprints by the bunches recently.

Taking Affirmatif to win with no price restrictions and an exacta box with Evacuation Route.

Running Totals: (629) 198-126-88 Total Dollar Return: $1,377.30 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


Tuesday, April 13, 2010

Bert’s Too Kinky for the Devil

Today’s featured starter allowances at Philadelphia Park offers an opportunity to beat a favorite and that’s what we’ll try to achieve.

As far as I can tell, the best thing Black Tie Only (2-1) has going for him is the barn, Guadalupe Preciado’s. He’s been competing at this level for a lengthy period and only broke through last race with a win on a sloppy track.

His record and pedigree indicates he indeed likes a wet racetrack and there‘s a 50% chance of showers this afternoon. At the price, we‘ll roll the dice.

We’ll take either of two horses coming out of the same sprint which are stretching to a more optimal distance, and either is faster than the choice and both figure to rebound in this spot.

Dapper Devil (7-2) happens to be bred for wet and comes off a sharp, too-late rally in that sprint. He has the best figures in the race by a narrow margin and reunites with Kendrick Carmouche. He might even go favored at post time.

Meanwhile, Bert’s Too Kinky (9-2) owns a wet track win under similar conditions on this track, has won at the distance, switches to Frankie Pennington and goes for a barn that’s profitable with its stretch-outs and has won with this horse thrice off the barn switch, a DQ notwithstanding.

Taking Bert’s Too Kinky to win at 3-1 or greater and an exacta box with his rivals here, an extra ticket with Dapper Devil.

Running Totals: (628) 197-126-88 Total Dollar Return: $1,370.90 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


Saturday, April 10, 2010

It’s a Beautiful Thing

Today’s G3 Comely Stakes at Aqueduct is not the most compelling edition ever but one that could offer exceptional value. Checking the late odds absolutely will be critical in this spot.

Clearly, She’ll Be Doggone (5-2) is the fastest three-year-old filly and she is versatile. But accepting a short price at a longer distance while coming off a huge top effort, even with the recovery time, is a poor percentage play.

Touching Beauty (3-1), making her second start off a layup with the proper style, a favorable outside draw and a pedigree suited to the stretch out, should insure a good trip, the winning tack being a strong turn-rally. Her performance figure looks potentially explosive in this scenario.

Taking Touching Beauty to win at 3-1 or greater and key boxing her in exactas with steadily improving Speightful Affair (5-1) and the favorite. Trifecta players can add price shot Roman Chestnut (15-1) to their mix.

Running Totals: (627) 196-126-88 Total Dollar Return: $1,358.90 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


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