Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis

Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.

In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line" column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line" banner.

Sunday, November 25, 2007

Here Kitty, Kitty

The getaway main track feature is for state-bred fillies and mares at nine furlongs, the Montauk. Its trappy in that this full field appears as if possibly only three fillies can win; the strong favorite Ice Kool Kitty (5-2), Laurens Tizzy (5-1) and Borrowing Base (6-1).

The favorite is clearly the fastest filly in the group, and by a wide margin. Shes 2-for-2 on this surface and 1-for-2 at nine furlongs. What makes her dangerous is her high speed going a distance and its ratable speed. The hot riding Edgar Prado gets along with her very well and hes aboard for one of his main patrons, Rick Dutrow.

Laurens Tizzy has tactical speed, she can kick, and owns the rail with its short run to the first turn. Eibar Coa rides for Mark Hennig, a very productive team, and Hennig is having a quietly good meet. Like the choice, shes undefeated in two local starts and her best figures are alternately at Aqueduct and/or at nine furlongs. She will be the favorites main danger entering the lane.

Should these two fillies do themselves harm in the early going, late kicker Borrowing Base will be coming strong beneath underrated finisher Channing Hill. She owns a win and a second at nine furlongs and an excellent slate over the surface at (4) 1-2-1. Shell be playable odds and has a punchers chance to break through. But it wont be easy.

Ice Kool Kitty is the most probable winner and is playable at 7-5 or greater. Well also make an exacta box with Laurens Tizzy and a trifecta part wheel using those two fillies first, second and third with Borrowing Base second and third.

Running Totals: (136) 47-30-15. Total Dollar Return: $278.50 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci

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Saturday, November 24, 2007

A Special Race, A Special Horse

Horseplayers will look at todays Cigar Mile as the final leg of an all stakes Pick 4. Fans see it as the final Grade 1 of the New York season.

Either way, its a two horse race on paper, probably a one-horse race to be totally objective. But this is horse racing where anything can happen and often does.

If this were the third race on a Wednesday, Midnight Lute (3-5) has the kind of form you might want to take a chance against. His last two performance figures were simply off the normal scale, he returns on relatively short rest, gives weight to his major contender, has never won at a mile and drew the rail post out of the one-mile chute. Five reasons to bet against. But one not to do that: This is an exceptional animal.

Not even good racehorses can do what he did in the Sprint, coming from far, far back with a rally reminiscent of the great Turkoman of two decades ago. To think he would get up, then win going away, was unthinkable as you watched the race live. Now, when you look at his figures, you know theres a bounce forthcoming. One cant sustain that level indefinitely. Then he works six furlongs in 1:10 2/5, like breaking so many sticks, and with the performance gap between he and his rivals, you can absolutely regress and still win.

However, the three-year-old Daaher (3-1) could be anything. Hes fast, fit, fresh and very dangerous. Hes proven at the distance, is in receipt of seven pounds (including the weight allowance), is nicely drawn, and his speed gives him a tactical advantage. Hes been very impressive, too, from a visual frame. Hes been working very well for his first start since winning the key race Jerome early last month.

However, we must take Midnight Lute to win with no price restrictions although, in the real world, we would forgo a win wager, box the exacta. and root for the upset.

Running Totals: (135) 47-29-15. Total Dollar Return: $278.50 [win selections only] {Fridays results not included}

Written by John Pricci

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Friday, November 23, 2007

Everybody In The Pool

Todays feature this holiday weekend is the Grade 2 Top Flight for fillies and mares going a flat mile on what projects a drying-out Big A surface. Our charter, of course, is to seek out vulnerable favorites. Sorry, not today.

Pool Land (5-2) figures to be a very tough out. Making her second start off a lengthy layup, she owns considerable advantages on pace and final performance figures, has proven class and is nicely positioned outside starting from the chute. Tom Albertrani has taken over her training on won off the freshening from for a barn profitable for a career and is particularly adept saddling potential repeaters. One-for-one on this track, shes 58 days fresh and has found a very likely spot here.

Altesse (5-1) is a distance specialist for Shug McGaughey, winning three of five at eight furlongs. Of greater consequence is the fact her best performance figure came at 1-1/16 miles at Belmont, a similar dynamic to todays conditions. Her trainer has been on a roll of late and hes been 3-for-8 when using Joe Bravo.

Golden Velvet (3-1) is interesting. Seasoned in stakes company in Europe and Dubai, she debutted for Kairan McLaughlin with a comprehensive, open lengths victory in quick time. Dropping a significant six pounds off that effort, she will attempt her second straight for a top repeater outfit thats a profitable 27 percent efficient with second-Lasix starters. Her most recent work was the fourth fastest of 74 older fillies to work that week in New York. The only knock is the short early line odds, in light of the class hike.

Taking Pool Land to win at 7-5 or greater, and an exacta key first and second with her major rivals.

Running Totals: (134) 46-29-15. Total Dollar Return: $272.10 [win selections only] {Thursdays results not included}

Written by John Pricci

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