Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis

Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.

In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line" column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line" banner.

Wednesday, June 11, 2008

Taking the Value Is Just Right

The post Belmont 140 era begins with a preliminary allowances for three-year-olds and up at 7 furlongs on the Widener turf course, and if you’re looking for a horse to single in the $1 million-plus carryover, look elsewhere.

The speed of the speed, Forest of Dreams (3-1), has never run on turf but trainer Jimmy Jerkens is profitable in all relevant categories. Neither has a well bred mid-race mover, Papa Bear (6-1), but he has run very well on the synthetics and trainer Mike Hushion has been 31 percent efficient over the last three months.

Then there’s Pennington (5-1), a 4-year-old gelding with a good-figure win over the course, is 3-for-3 beneath Eibar Coa, but is turning back with quicker and potentially better sprinters. Betelo (9-2), a recent maiden winner who’s developing nicely, is fresh, well drawn and suited by the prevailing conditions. Raynicks Fan (6-1), a course lover coming off a sharp spring season debut and is six weeks fresh for Steve Asmussen and Cornelio Velasquez. Like we said, it’s open.

The favorite has a huge pace edge, a capable turf sire and 29 percent turf-debut trainer. Papa Bear, the fastest here on performance figures, has excellent synthetic figures which should translate to grass. Forest Of Dreams is the most likely but Papa Bear the likely value.

Taking Papa Bear at 6-1 or greater and keying him first and second with his main rivals here.

Running Totals: (216) 69-46-24. Total Dollar Return: $427.30 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


Tuesday, June 03, 2008

Handicappus Interruptus

The NYRA Feature Race Analysis WIll Resume Next Week, Upon the Completion of the Belmont Stakes

Written by John Pricci


Sunday, June 01, 2008

Taking Price Shot in Beautiful Pleasure

Today’s feature is the Beautiful Pleasure Stakes for fillies and mares, three-year-olds and up, which have not won a stakes this year, at a mile and a sixteenth, on what likely will be a Widener course rated good.

The most accomplished and fastest females in here are either all long on early pace or returning from lengthy layups. Unlike yesterday’s feature, it is unlikely that any of the better fillies will shake loose on an uncontested lead the way Tom Albertrani’s filly did yesterday beneath Alan Garcia, who has this knack of stealing paceless grass stakes.

Rather than try to guess how the pace scenario will shake out, we’ll take a price filly in here who could sit a good ground-saving trip behind the speed and then kick, as she’s shown no need to carry a preferred surface around with her. She acts on any ground.

Chances are that Latitude Forty is 12-1 on the early line because she seems a poor match on class lines--but not on performance figures. Further, she loves today’s conditions, having won three of her four lifetime scores on Belmont grass and half her four starts at today’s distance. Trainer John Hertler is coming alive at the current meet and is a profitable 15 percent in his career in non-graded stakes. Second off a layup, she never had a chance in her season’s debut, trapped on the fence at every critical stage.

Taking Latitude Forty to win and place at 10-1 or greater.

Running Totals: (215) 69-46-24. Total Dollar Return: $427.30 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


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