Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis

Whenever his daily work schedule permits, HorseRaceInsider executive editor John Pricci will analyze that day's feature race from a major thoroughbred-racing jurisdiction.

Friday, March 26, 2010

Mambo, Cajun Style

Metarie, La.--Today’s feature in the Crescent City is the G2 Fair Grounds Oaks that has drawn a full field and should provide bettable odds no matter the choice. This one’s wide open.

At first blush, we give four fillies the best chance, the four top choices on the early line; Quiet Temper (7-2), Mambo Fever (6-1), Jody Slew (5-1) and Ailalea (3-1).

Quiet Temper and Jody Slew finished noses apart in the recent G3 Silverbulletday over the track, with the latter nailing the former in the last jump. This makes Jody 2-for-2 at the Fair Grounds and a winner at today’s distance.

Quiet Temper, meanwhile, found herself on the lead--probably not her best game. Today she’s likely to sit a good trip from the pole position beneath Albarado and she’s worked well subsequently.

The favorite, meanwhile, showed the most promise at 2 given her excellent Equiform performance figures as a juvenile and her trainer, Todd Pletcher, is 2-for-2 with his Florida-based shippers into New Orleans this meet. The spacing seems perfect, the extreme outside post not so much.

When you look at Mambo Fever’s figures and past performances you notice that she finished close behind the early line favorite in last year’s Tempted Stakes. But her pace and final figure-relationship indicates that she’s getting stronger.

Mambo’s pedigree is screaming out for today’s second turn, she reunites with David Cohen, her Tempted Stakes partner and note, too, that Tony Dutrow is a profitable 29 percent efficient when adding blinkers. She worked well with the hood at her Palm Meadows base for this.

Taking Mambo Fever to win at 9-2 or greater, an exacta box with Quiet Temper, and adding Jody Slew and Ailalea to the trifecta mix. Superfecta players could do worse than to add a pair of longshots to their underneath mix, The Rumor’s True (30-1) and Shezacrazygirl (15-1).

Running Totals: (618) 191-125-87 Total Dollar Return: $1,323.30 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


Thursday, March 25, 2010

Bad News and Good News

Today’s Aqueduct feature, a second allowances optional claimer is trappy--a five horse field at a mile with its short run to the first turn. But with an opportunity to good-trip sit in here, the good news is that we believe by post time there will be sufficient value on McVictory (5-1) to make a play.

Clearly, there’s enough early speed--what with the favorite, Ampart Ridge (8-5), and Sneaky Girl (3-1), coming from sprints--to set the table for this sharp working, potential trip sitter, a filly that has shown the kind of development you like to see from a newly turned four year old.

The thought here is that with Ampart Ridge picking up five pounds and coming back quickly, she’s vulnerable as is Sneaky Girl, who’s unproven at the distance. This leaves the improved Zaphyra (9-5) to beat.

Taking McVictory to win at 4-1 or greater and boxing her in the exacta with Zaphyra.

Running Totals: (618) 191-125-86 Total Dollar Return: $1,323.30 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


Wednesday, March 24, 2010

Slim Pickin’s

Today’s pickings are slim. Just how slim? So slim so that we rejected Aqueduct for a short field of formless stock at an inappropriate distance and we rejected Gulfstream for its small field and lack of recent top form.

How slim? So slim that we’re going to the AE list in Tampa’s 9th race, a 5-furlong turf sprint that is long on early speed, poor form, and quality ralliers. Although we think we found one of the latter in Peaceful Slewtion (8-1).

When last seen sprinting, the five year old gelding was going best of all in deep stretch after finding a seam earlier in the lane. His performance figures are highly competitive, he fits the race shape and gets a positive rider switch to Junior Alvarado.

Providing he draws in, of course, taking Peaceful Slewtion at 8-1 or greater and key boxing him first and second in the multiple pools with Sammytheredrocker (2-1) who narrowly beat him last out and Winthrop House (5-2), making his second off the layup for Linda Rice and attracting Centeno.

Running Totals: (617) 191-125-86 Total Dollar Return: $1,323.30 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


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