Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis

Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.

In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line" column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line" banner.



Saturday, March 21, 2015


Interesting Battle Looms in Gulf’s G2 Sabin


1) 12-1 96 Swinger’s Party
2) 5-1 91 Tiz Windy
3) 7-2 98 Sheer Drama
4) 15-1 84 Oasis At Midnight
5) 10-1 88 Flores Island
6) 9-5 98 House Rules
7) 3-1 85 Molly Morgan

A closer look at the Pricci Performance Ratings [bold type]--a speed figure that includes an energy component and a statistical measure of traditional handicapping tenets, yielding a predicted performance level for today's race--indicates there are two mares tied at the top with Total Energy Ratings of 98 each. What to do?

In this case it's clear cut: House Rules is 9-5; Sheer Drama is 7-2. Part of the statistical data includes the fact that House Rules gave a peak effort in last--and might again--but that Sheer Drama has more room to improve.

Thus, we're taking Sheer Drama to win at 5-2 or greater, boxing the exacta with House Rules, and we're adding Swinger's Party (12-1) with her competitive 96 rating and Tiz Windy (5-1), who also figures to move forward, to exacta boxes and the super-exotics mix.

The possible value lies in getting the classy, albeit figure-lacking, Molly Moran (3-1) out of the number. She has shown no indication that she's at tops in her first start following a layup and the rest of her PPs indicates that this just might be a bridge race to Kentucky.

Number of Selections since 2008: 1710

Number of Win and Place Finishes: 515-330

Amount Wagered: $3,420 [to win only]

Total Dollar Return on Investment: $3,526.80

Profit to Date: $106.80

For a complete Pricci Ratings breakdown of today's feature race and more, click on the blog section at http://www.123bet.com





Written by John Pricci

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Wednesday, March 18, 2015


Outside Fillies Top Wednesday Turf Sprint Gulf Feature


Race dynamics and make this a tough call. The top fillies, early line favorites, #s 11 and 12, are tied at 91 Pricci Ratings points. Since these dead-even faves break from outside posts, exacta boxes that include value horses, #s 5 and 8, makes sense.

Of the top two fillies we’re siding with better early odds and recency and making a win play on Fascinante. We'll also use Free as a Bird as a super-exotics key with the 5 and 8, adding #s 2 and 10 to the mix given their competitive ratings and early odds of 10-1 and 8-1, respectively.

Some races are cut and dry, making wagering decisions easy. Others, like this one, require final-minutes adjustments. Taking Fascinante to win at 7-2 or greater.

Number of Selections since 2008: 1709

Number of Win and Place Finishes: 515-330

Amount Wagered: $3,418 [to win only]

Total Dollar Return on Investment: $3,526.80

Profit to Date: $108.80

For a complete Pricci Ratings breakdown of today's feature race, click on the blog section at http://www.123bet.com

We will be on assignment for the balance of the week. The FRA will resume with Saturday's racing

Written by John Pricci

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Tuesday, March 17, 2015


Twist ‘n Shout Gimme the 2!


Today’s GP feature is pretty cut and dry from a betting perspective: Twist ‘n Bake (77) owns a clear 3-point spread over the group, with 15-1 Tumminia at 74. The better news is that two others, Anita Partner (10-1) and Jewelisa (9-2), at 73 on the TER scale, are clustered immediately below. These four fillies have a clear edge on the remainder of these turf routers and so the bet path seems clear.

Making a 4-horse exacta box of 2, 3, 4 and 9. Obviously, a win play on Twist ‘n Bake is in order since she figures to be close to her early line odds in this open grass event for 3YO fillies. Optimizing, we’re keying Twist n’ Bake first and second in super-exotics with the three fillies clustered below, and will make moderate win bets on Tumminia (15-1) and Anita Partner (10-1), especially the former, at any price near their early line odds.

Number of Selections since 2008: 1708

Number of Win and Place Finishes: 515-330

Amount Wagered: $3,416 [to win only]

Total Dollar Return on Investment: $3,526.80

Profit to Date: $110.80

For a complete Pricci Ratings breakdown of today's feature race, click on the blog section at http://www.123bet.com

Written by John Pricci

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