http://www.horseraceinsider.com/blog.php en jpricci@nycap.rr.com Copyright 2013 2013-06-19T05:43:00-05:00 http://www.horseraceinsider.com/john-pricci-blog/06172013-blazing-the-way/ http://www.horseraceinsider.com/john-pricci-blog/06172013-blazing-the-way/#When:05:43:00Z Don't need a roadmap to find the favorite in today's featured third race at Belmont. In fact, it's hard to believe that, as classy, as he has been, Doubles Partner (7-5) is still eligible for "non-winner of 3 allowances." But here he is going a mile on the Belmont turf course. Nevertheless, we'll treat his recent slump as emblematic of having lost a step and we'll opt for Joe's Blazing Aaron (3-1) as a viable alternative reuniting with Johnny. Owning tactical speed and kick, a good trip seems assured and gelded 5YO will appreciate any cut in the ground, winning his lone Belmont start on yielding turf. Taking Joe's Blazing Aaron at early line odds or greater [turf only] and key-boxing in exactas with the favorite and Admiral Perry (4-1). Number of Selections: 1337 Number of Win-Place-Show Finishers: 409-252-205 Amount Wagered: $2,674 [to win only] Total Dollar Return on Investment: $2,808.30 Profit to Date: $134.30 2013-06-19T05:43:00-05:00 http://www.horseraceinsider.com/john-pricci-blog/06142013-a-viable-alternative/ http://www.horseraceinsider.com/john-pricci-blog/06142013-a-viable-alternative/#When:06:28:00Z Today's Belmont Park feature is the restricted Bit O Whimsy for 3YO fillies going 9 furlongs on turf and for a relatively small field is competitive from end to end. The entire group is in various stages of development but an early line of 15-1 on Alternative Meds seems inappropriate. While she is a New York bred facing open fillies, she's won both grass starts, including one over the course, has handled disparate course conditions and is strongly bred for added distance on dam's side. Young Jose Ortiz was aboard for both scores. Taking Alternative Meds to win at 8-1 or greater and key boxing her in money positions with Caroline Thomas (7-2) and Maximova (2-1). Number of Selections: 1335 Number of Win-Place-Show Finishers: 408-252-205 Amount Wagered: $2,670 [to win only] Total Dollar Return on Investment: $2,796.50 Profit to Date: $126.50 [Saturday results not included] 2013-06-16T06:28:00-05:00 http://www.horseraceinsider.com/john-pricci-blog/06142013-notachalkbutfairvalue/ http://www.horseraceinsider.com/john-pricci-blog/06142013-notachalkbutfairvalue/#When:05:45:00Z It's not very often there's an opportunity to find value on a Pletcher-trained runner, but today's Belmont feature, the G3 Hill Prince for 3YO on turf, offers that chance with Notacatbutallama (6-1). Between the contentiousness of the field and the outside draw, the elements are there for a good price should he show up with his 'A' game. The colt rallied from uncharacteristically far back at Pimlico, his momentum carrying him wide into the lane and was ultimately beaten by a good trip winner. Taking Notacatbutallama to win at 5-1 or greater and keying him in multiples with strong finisher Infinite Magic (7-2), graded-stakes toughened Joha (8-1) and uncoupled Pletcher Red Rifle (6-1). Number of Selections: 1335 Number of Win-Place-Show Finishers: 408-252-205 Amount Wagered: $2,670 [to win only] Total Dollar Return on Investment: $2,796.50 Profit to Date: $126.50 2013-06-15T05:45:00-05:00 http://www.horseraceinsider.com/john-pricci-blog/06142013-different-day-same-result/ http://www.horseraceinsider.com/john-pricci-blog/06142013-different-day-same-result/#When:13:13:00Z Not much to choose between in either of today's features; the Criminal Type is a two-horse race in a five-horse field and if Mucho Macho Man (4-5) is on his game it's over. If not, Hymn Book (2-1) is the most probable winner. The second feature, meanwhile, the Three Coins Up, has been rained off the grass and again there's not much of interest remaining. On dirt, Jaguar Paw (2-1) is the most likely suspect. He's won 2 of 3 since entering the Chad Brown shed and was a big figure winner last out. Given that he's "fastest" on dirt recently, and that Brown is 31% effective with repeaters, there's little left to offer from the others. Taking Jaguar Paw to win, no price restrictions, and completing the exacta with Joan's Choice (4-1) and Love To Run (5-2). Number of Selections: 1334 Number of Win-Place-Show Finishers: 407-252-205 Amount Wagered: $2,668 [to win only] Total Dollar Return on Investment: $2,792.20 Profit to Date: $124.20 2013-06-14T13:13:00-05:00 http://www.horseraceinsider.com/john-pricci-blog/06122013-happy-face-chad/ http://www.horseraceinsider.com/john-pricci-blog/06122013-happy-face-chad/#When:06:59:00Z Today's Belmont Park feature is the Lotka Stakes for fillies going a mile and this one will turn out to be a trainer's race. Danny Gargan has two in here and if he believes he's going to use one as a pacesetter/prompter to set up the other, he likely will get the same result Kenny McPeek got from Frac Daddy in the Belmont. He, and Gargan's two fillies, didn't/don't really have enough classy speed to challenge confirmed, proven classy frontrunners. Then there's Diva's Spirit (15-1) from a barn, Oussama Abougazale's, that upset plenty of apple-carts in Florida this winter. After showing improved speed with blinkers last out, she goes with first-Lasix here and the blinkers are off again. Palace Malice, anyone? But we're taking a very, classy and fast speedster, My Happy Face (1-1), who goes first time for Chad Brown. Her company lines give this one away. Taking My Happy Face to win. no price restrictions, and an exacta box with Diva's Spirit. Number of Selections: 1333 Number of Win-Place-Show Finishers: 406-252-205 Amount Wagered: $2,666 [to win only] Total Dollar Return on Investment: $2,789.20 Profit to Date: $123.20 2013-06-13T06:59:00-05:00 http://www.horseraceinsider.com/john-pricci-blog/06112013-clean-eleven-to-stay-perfect/ http://www.horseraceinsider.com/john-pricci-blog/06112013-clean-eleven-to-stay-perfect/#When:06:45:00Z Today's featured 8th race from Belmont is a preliminary allowances/optional claimer for New York bred fillies and mares sprinting 6 furlongs. The race features two impressive enough recent maiden winners; early line favorite Irish Whisper (5-2) and Clean Eleven (9-2). We're giving the call to the latter because of her strong gallop out--even if Irish Whisper was a bit more dominant and throttled down in deep stretch. Taking Clean Eleven to win at 5-2 or greater, keying her first and second in multiples with the favorite and Make The Moment (8-1) which improved off a recent Baker claim, and adding Divadora (6-1), making her 4YO debut for Lawrence/Lezcano team off a series of good works at her Fair Hill base. Number of Selections: 1332 Number of Win-Place-Show Finishers: 406-252-205 Amount Wagered: $2,664 [to win only] Total Dollar Return on Investment: $2,789.20 Profit to Date: $125.20 2013-06-12T06:45:00-05:00 http://www.horseraceinsider.com/john-pricci-blog/06082013-making-the-most-of-belmont-145/ http://www.horseraceinsider.com/john-pricci-blog/06082013-making-the-most-of-belmont-145/#When:04:24:00Z We're making two different plays. First, we're keying Orb to finish first or second in superfectas with Freedom Child (8-1), Revolutionary (9-2), Palace Malice (15-1) and Unlimited Budget (8-1) in all money positions, sprinkling Overanalyze(12-1), Giant Finish (30-1), Incognito (20-1), and Will Take Charge (20-1) to complete the play, third and fourth. Also, we're making a win bet on Palace Malice at 12-1 or greater. For the record, however, the running totals in the next FRA will reflect the results of a $2 win bet on Orb. Number of Selections: 1331 Number of Win-Place-Show Finishers: 406-252-204 Amount Wagered: $2,662 [to win only] Total Dollar Return on Investment: $2,789.20 Profit to Date: $127.20 2013-06-08T04:24:00-05:00 http://www.horseraceinsider.com/john-pricci-blog/06042013-fast-falcon-to-take-flight-in-the-brooklyn/ http://www.horseraceinsider.com/john-pricci-blog/06042013-fast-falcon-to-take-flight-in-the-brooklyn/#When:06:39:00Z Unusual to see races with names run on a non-holiday Friday but today is an exception at Belmont Park with three such events; one an overnighter, the other two graded races including the G2 Brooklyn, forme third leg of the New York handicap triple series but now the first half of the Brooklyn-Belmont double. Both events are at, what else, a mile and a half. As with the 3-year-olds, it's a question of who will stay the trip. There are several candiates: Calidoscopio (5-2), winner of the 14-furlong Breeders' Cup Marathon, Birdrun (12-1), who won this race in 2011, and Ruler On Ice (8-1), winner of that year's Belmont Stakes, to name three. But our nod goes to Fast Falcon (7-2), the 4-year-old that almost upset last year's Travers, who's bred for this kind of race, has done his best racing on this surface, given excellent figures here and three exacta finishes in four starts. It's a slate that easily could have read (4) 1-2-0 had the head bob gone his way in the recent Albert The Great overnighter. He chased the loose-leading favorite, Percussion (3-1), who is back in the entries here and was unlucky at the wire. It appears Fast Falcon has been clearly pointed to this and likely will improve in his second start off the layup for Nick Zito, who owns good stats in that scenario. Given the cot's penchant for finishing second, the wise guys should be off in this spot and the price fair. Taking Fast Falcon to win at 3-1 or greater and boxing him in mutiples with Quick Casablanca (4-1), a Group 1 winner on turf and dirt in South America making his second U.S. start for the Clement/Rosario team, very sharp price shot Keep Me Informed (20-1), wet track loving Ruler On Ice (8-1) and the aforementioned Percussion (3-1). Number of Selections: 1330 Number of Win-Place-Show Finishers: 406-252-203 Amount Wagered: $2,660 [to win only] Total Dollar Return on Investment: $2,789.20 Profit to Date: $129.20 2013-06-07T06:39:00-05:00 http://www.horseraceinsider.com/john-pricci-blog/06042013-dawg-gone-it/ http://www.horseraceinsider.com/john-pricci-blog/06042013-dawg-gone-it/#When:06:15:00Z Today's Belmont Park feature is a secondary allowance-optional claimer for older New York-breds sprinting six furlongs. Even with six entrants, the race is more interesting that it might appear at first blush. Half the field can win to our count: the returning Jeter (7-5), making his first start as a 4-year-old and for a new barn, Kelly Breen's; Driven by Solar (5-2), likely to get his preferred dry track for Jamie Ness, batting 33% second time off the claim, and Marsh Dawg (5-1), very impressive winning last out at Finger Lakes for Chris Englehardt, returning from a year's absence to do it. So then why won't he regress here? He could, obviously, but we're banking on a trainer who's shipping into Gotham, hiking the 7-year-old gelding up from the $10,000 claiming level and, most significantly, is 29% efficient with repeaters and 26% second time off the layup. The presence of Castellano is another plus, as are the early line odds. Taking Marsh Dawg to win at 4-1 or greater and key-boxing him in multiples with his two rivals here. Number of Selections: 1330 Number of Win-Place-Show Finishers: 406-252-203 Amount Wagered: $2,660 [to win only] Total Dollar Return on Investment: $2,789.20 Profit to Date: $129.20 2013-06-06T06:15:00-05:00 http://www.horseraceinsider.com/john-pricci-blog/06042013-taking-arc-above-all/ http://www.horseraceinsider.com/john-pricci-blog/06042013-taking-arc-above-all/#When:06:01:00Z Today's Belmont Park feature is a preliminary allowance-optional claiming for 3-year-olds and up racing a mile and a quarter on turf. Arc Above (3-1). from the Clement barn, appears to hold an edge in a fairly wide open affair. Gelded 4-year-old showed improved interest after adding blinkers for his last on Keeneland Poly, but now returns to his preferred surface under optimal conditions: His lone lifetime score came on this course, at today's trip, Rosario gets along nicely with him, and a recent blowout will have him sharp for today's test. Taking Arc Above to win at early line odds or greater, key boxing in exactas with Forever Thing (4-1) and Citizen Wells (7-2), and adding Punctual Jeff (8-1) to the exotics mix. Number of Selections: 1329 Number of Win-Place-Show Finishers: 405-252-203 Amount Wagered: $2,658 [to win only] Total Dollar Return on Investment: $2,783.10 Profit to Date: $125.10 2013-06-05T06:01:00-05:00