Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis

Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.

In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line" column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line" banner.



Thursday, February 26, 2015


Getting Risque in Gulf Feature


What jumps out at first glance when you look at our Energy Ratings is that Angel Code and Sloane Square are underlays--even if Todd is taking blinkers off the latter.

Quiet Honor is a worthy favorite, a very fair 4-1 in today's Gulf feature.

At 10-1 on the early line, Risque Reality is very interesting as potential, and West Coast Chick as exotics filler at the same early-line quote.

The two we’re considering for the top spot; the worthy 4-1 fave and value-laden Risque Reality.

Taking Risqué Reality to win at 8-1 or greater, an exacta box with Quiet Honor and Bird Maker (8-1), adding the underlays above and West Coast Chick as super-exotics filler.

Number of Selections since 2008: 1697

Number of Win and Place Finishes: 510-329

Amount Wagered: $3,394 [to win only]

Total Dollar Return on Investment: $3,505.20

Profit to Date: $111.20

For more on today's Gulf feature, click the blog section at http://www.123bet.com

Written by John Pricci

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Sunday, February 22, 2015


Go Southwest Young Man


PRICCI PERFORMANCE RATINGS


EARLY ODDS BOARD

1: 5-1 Bayerd 81-- 2-- 83
2: 30-1 Majestico 61-- 1-- 62
3: 7-2 Hillbilly Royalty 75-- 4-- 79
4: 12-1 Private Prospect 77-- 2-- 79
5: 10-1 Bold Conquest 73-- 6-- 79
6: 5-2 Far Right 80-- 2-- 82
7 30-1 Phenomenal Phoenix 70-- 4-- 74
8: 20-1 The Truth Or Else 70-- 4-- 74
9: 12-1 Kantune 75-- 5-- 80
10: 30-1 Bold Animaux NA-- 2-- NA
11: 3-1 Mr. Z 80-- 4-- 84

First # following horse's name E A R: ENERGY ABILITY RATING (Demonstrated Speed + Energy Distribution)
Second # following horse's name V H R: VARIABLE HANDICAP RATING (Statistical Strength of Traditional Handicapping Data)
Third # following horse's name in bold P E P: PROJECTED ENERGY PERFORMANCE (Today’s Expected Total Performance Figure)


For those not handicapping the race themselves, the third number in bold, the PEP, can be used as a stand-alone figure, a predictor of how the horse will run today. For both types of uses, the PEPs must be viewed in relation to the odds, at first the early line, and finally, the live odds before placing a wager


HANDICAPPING/BETTING NOTES: As PEPs suggest, Mr. Z, Bayerd and Far Right are clustered at the top. Wayne says he has Mr. Z “straightened” out, we shall see if he can or cannot keep a straight course today. Will Far Right enjoy another perfect trip? He sure has a big late engine, obviously likes the track and Smith fits him well. But it’s Bayerd that offers value at early line odds, he sizzled in most recent work and figures to be placed nicely from his rail post assuming a good break.

Just beneath those, and well clustered, are: Kantune, Hillbilly Royalty, Private Prospect and Bold Conquest; the former is interesting at 12-1. Per usual, note the tote, especially in this open scramble.

For FRA daily running total purposes, taking Bayerd to win at 7-2 or greater, keying exacta boxes with Far Right and Kantune, and using all other clustered horses above to fill out super-exotics.


INSIDE THE BOXES: In our beta-tests, i.e., actual betting, we discovered that a five-point margin in the PEP gives that runner a significant edge over the competition. Horses within two points are viewed as virtually equal contenders; three points is where separation commences. The study was done going forward from the July, 2014 Saratoga race meet to the present. My personal wagering menu invariably consists of turf and maiden races of any class-maiden allowances preferred; most allowance races, and any stakes event, from listed to graded levels. Our point of emphasis--and where we’ve enjoyed the most success--is maiden allowances and stakes. I expect that the strike rate will level off but, to date, the win rate is 57%. Invariably, the winners are favored, a surprising number offering betting value, even as strong favorites, with relatively few at odds-on. Of course, I cannot blame anyone who regard that figure with a healthy amount of skepticism. Bettors will have to judge for themselves on the merits.

OUTSIDE THE LINES: The best use of the PEPs comes in highly random events where competitive-figure horses at huge prices makes putting up with the chaos worthwhile—if you have the mental fortitude to survive the long droughts that surely will come. Obviously, betting within your means, whatever that is, will keep bettors liquid enough until that illusive score comes. Scores occur infrequently and the empirical evidence informs that no one knows when it will be; invariably, however, one can bet that it will. Thus, a long-term mindset is a horseplayer’s best friend. This may seem obvious but one should never lose sight of the fact that the majority of longshots finish in-the-money, rather than win. And so, bet accordingly, matching up the Projected Energy Performance figure with the early-line and final odds. As Cary Fotias always said: "in the end, it's about price, not about horse."

Number of Selections since 2008: 1696

Number of Win and Place Finishes: 510-329

Amount Wagered: $3,392 [to win only]

Total Dollar Return on Investment: $3,505.20

Profit to Date: $113.20

The format is a work in progress as coding is not my strong suit. In that regard, the author has no clothes. But we're working on it and I just wanted to get this out there. Already have tweaks in mind for next weekend. Two more races found at http://www.123bet.com, a contentious turf allowances from GP and the Evening Attire Stakes from New York

Written by John Pricci

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Saturday, February 21, 2015


No Longer an Upstart


GP Race 11 G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes

Early Odds Board EAR VHR P E P

1: 20-1 Juan and Bina 75 0 75
2: 8-1 Bluegrass Singer 82 2 84<
3: 30-1 Frammento 79 1 80
4: 6-1 Gorgeous Bird 75 6 81>
5: 4-1 Itsaknockout 90 3 93
6: 5-2 Frosted 84 6 90>
7: 8-5 Upstart 92 4 96
8: 15-1 Danny Boy 73 5 78

First Column of Figures Following Odds Board: E A R: ENERGY ABILITY RATING (Demonstrated Speed + Energy Distribution)

Second Column of Figures Following Odds Board: V H R: VARIABLE HANDICAP RATING (Statistical Strength of Traditional Handicapping Data)

Third Column of Figures Following Odds Board: P E P: PROJECTED ENERGY PERFORMANCE (Today’s Expected Total Performance Figure)

***

HANDICAPPING/BETTING NOTES Note the 84<, 81> and 90> on the #2, #4 and #6 horses, respectively. These are top-class 3YOs that improve day to day, mentally and physically, making forecasting their performance more art than science. Bluegrass Singer has earned his rating but very likely has peaked, hence the 84 with less-than sign following. Will Gorgeous Bird to move forward or back? Forward is the more likely development. Frosted may move way up with his new blinkers, but PEPs indicate he has to and is an underlay at early line odds.

In our beta-tests, i.e., actual betting, we discovered that a five-point margin in the PEP gives that runner a significant edge over the competition. Horses within two points are viewed as virtually equal contenders; three points is where separation commences. The study was done going forward from the July, 2014 Saratoga race meet to the present. My personal wagering menu invariably consists of turf and maiden races of any class-maiden allowances preferred; most allowance races, and any stakes event, from listed to graded levels. Our point of emphasis--and where we’ve enjoyed the most success--is maiden allowances and stakes. I expect that the strike rate may level off but, to date, the win rate is 57%. Invariably, the winners are favored, a surprising number offering betting value, even as strong favorites, with relatively few at odds-on. Of course, I cannot blame anyone who regards that figure with a healthy amount of skepticism. Bettors will have to judge for themselves on the merits.

The best use of the PEPs comes in highly random events where competitive-figure horses at huge prices makes putting up with the chaos worthwhile—if you have the mental fortitude to survive the long droughts that surely will come. Obviously, betting within your means, whatever that is, will keep bettors liquid enough until that illusive score comes. Scores occur infrequently and the empirical evidence informs us that no one knows when it will be. Invariably, however, one can bet that it will. Thus, a long-term mindset is a horseplayer’s best friend. This may seem obvious but one should never lose sight of the fact that the majority of longshots finish in-the-money rather than win. And so, bet accordingly, matching up the Projected Energy Performance figure with the early-line and final odds. I always hear the counsel of my late, great friend, Cary Fotias: “In the end, it’s about price, not about horse.”

***

Taking Upstart to win, no price restrictions, making exacta key boxes with Itsaknockout and Frosted, and adding Frammento to the super-exotics mix.

Number of Selections since 2008: 1695

Number of Win and Place Finishes: 510-328

Amount Wagered: $3,390 [to win only]

Total Dollar Return on Investment: $3,505.20

Profit to Date: $115.20

The format as this is a work in progress and coding is not my strong suit. In that regard, actually, the author has no clothes. But we're working on it and I just wanted to get this out there. There are examples of two more races, the Canadian Turf and Gulfstream Park Sprint, which can be found at http://www.123bet.com.

Written by John Pricci

Comments (2)


 
 

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