Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis

Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.

In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line" column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line" banner.



Wednesday, November 05, 2014


Flamingo In the Sky With Diamonds


Today's Big A featured 7th race is a preliminary allowances on the turf and the best horse is anchored on the AE list: Sky Painter (2-1)--was competitive with better, faster rivals.

In her absence, we would side with Flamingo Lane (3-1) who earns good figures consistently and finishes very well; switch to Irad won't hurt.

Taking Flamingo Lane to win--in the absence of Sky Painter--with no price restrictions, keying her first and second in exactas with Lil Honey Badger (20-1) and Indian Starlight (10-1).

Number of Selections since 2007: 1635

Number of Win-Place-Show Finishers: 494-317-252

Amount Wagered: $3,270 [to win only]

Total Dollar Return on Investment: $3,384.80

Profit to Date: $114.80


Written by John Pricci

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Saturday, November 01, 2014


Triple Crown Redemption


The race of the year for the Horse of the Year. Sounds just about right.

Watched a lot of video this week; workouts and gallops, and IMO this is the best California Chrome has looked physically all season.

The most likely sceneraio, if things go formfully, is that Chrome tracks the hot pace of Bayern, or Moreno, or both, and gets first run on the closers. Post 13 at that long run to the first turn will offer the dual Classics winner no excuses. We're not kidding ourselves; at 10 furlongs, his run will have to be his best of the year.

Taking California Chrome to win, no price restrictions, an exacta box with Tonalist, and adding Zivo and Candy Boy to the super-exotics mix.

Number of Selections since 2007: 1634

Number of Win-Place-Show Finishers: 494-317-251

Amount Wagered: $3,268 [to win only]

Total Dollar Return on Investment: $3,384.80

Profit to Date: $116.80


Written by John Pricci

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Thursday, October 30, 2014


2014 Distaff + 2013 SCOREcard Results


On Friday, will Close Hatches be the filly we've watched successfully all year, or the one that didn't bother to "show up" at Keeneland. We're betting on the former.

Bill Mott's filly has looked great on video this week, appearing full of energy, this after Mott tightened any remaining screws before leaving Belmont. Her half-mile, termed breezing, was the fastest of 80 workers on the day and the fastest move by a female at Belmont all week.

Tough draw? Yes. But like the man once said: "But mama, that's where the value is.

Taking Close Hatches to win at 5-2 or greater, an exacta box with America's best 3YO filly, Untapable (5-2), who also looks great after having worked extremely well at SA. Add Ria Antonia (15-1) to the exotics mix and stir. .

Number of Selections since 2007: 1633

Number of Win-Place-Show Finishers: 494-317-251

Amount Wagered: $3,266 [to win only]

Total Dollar Return on Investment: $3,384.80

Profit to Date: $118.80

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Results of 2013 SCOREcard


VALUE Plays: (20) 6-2-3 Investment $40 ROI: $96.80

FAVORITES: (23) 6-3-2 Investment $46 ROI: $40.60

EXOTIC TOTE BUSTERS: (32) 1-4-3-3 [winner Ria Antonia, placed 1st at $66.60]

EXACTAS: Key-boxing Value(s) and Favorite(s) with each other--INV: $70 ROI $253.60

TRIFECTAS: Boxing Value(s) and Favorite(s) with each other---INV: $150 ROI $387.90


The 2013 SCORECARD for each day in their entirety below:


SANTA ANITA PARK NOVEMBER 2, 2013

True Value horses are automatic plays at anything approximating fair odds. The hope is that closing odds will approximate the morning line quote.

Worthy Favorite horses are those we believe will be--or should be—the public’s choice(s). When more than one horse is indicated in any category, they are listed in graded order.

All Exotic Tote-Busters are primarily meant to fill out exotic and super-exotic wagers. But if closing odds appear well above the morning line, a smaller win wager may be in order.

Carefully manage your bankroll before crafting tickets. Please check all program numbers before wagering.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE FILLIES 1-1/16 Miles

TRUE VALUE: 8-SCANDALOUS ACT (8-1), 10-SHE’S A TIGER (6-1)

WORTHY FAVORITE: 1-ARTEMIS ARGROTERA (3-1), 7-UNTAPABLE (5-1)

EXOTIC TOTE-BUSTERS: 2-ROSALIND (8-1), 3-RIA ANTONIA (30-1)

PLAYING the PERCENTAGES: Speed horses and pressers are the preferred styles. Recent well-meant winning prep form is paramount; repeaters excel. Seldom are seen inscrutable longshots. This edition has money potential, however.

SKINNY: #8 seen CRC surprises before; #10 post only knock; #1 very classy speedster; #7 passed acid test; #2 CD work, Joel on



BREEDERS’ CUP FILLY & MARE TURF 3 & UP 1-1/4 Miles

TRUE VALUE: 2-ROMANTICA (6-1)

WORTHY FAVORITE: 1-DANK (5-2), 3-TIZ FLIRTATIOUS (7-2)

EXOTIC TOTE-BUSTER: NONE

PLAYING THE PERCENTAGES: Routine late-run dynamics of turf racing apply here; only Intercontinental won wire-to-wire. BRIS turf-pedigree data extremely telling. Upsets have been commonplace; not so much this time.

SKINNY: #2 Euros regard highly; #1 The Fugue ducking her? #3 extreme turn of foot



BREEDERS’ CUP FILLY & MARE SPRINT 3 & UP 7 Furlongs

TRUE VALUE: 4-DANCE CARD (8-1), 2-BOOK REVIEW (6-1)

WORTHY FAVORITE: 11-GROUPIE DOLL (5-2), 8-DANCE TO BRISTOL (5-1)

EXOTIC TOTE-BUSTERS: 6-ISMENE (20-1), 7-SUMMER APPLAUSE (12-1), 12-SWEET LULU (8-1)

PLAYING THE PERCENTAGES: It’s somewhat counter-intuitive but closers generally hold sway in this sprint contest, owing to usually strong contested early pace and the 7-furlong trip.

SKINNY: #4 short & vs. bias BEL prep; #2 trip and dynamics aid; #11 loves SA dirt; #8 classy, consistent, vs. bias BEL; #6 Spawr 7-14 turf > dirt; #7 beware the turn-back; #12 classy, game speedster


BREEDERS’ CUP TURF SPRINT 3 & UP 6-1/2 Furlongs

TRUE VALUE: 5-CORACORTADO (8-1), 14-UNBRIDLED’S NOTE (8-1)

WORTHY FAVORITE: 3-CHIPS ALL IN (5-1), 12-MIZDIRECTION (4-1)

EXOTIC TOTE-BUSTER: 2-ROCK ME BABY (30-1)

PLAYING THE PERCENTAGES: Because of the unusual configuration of downhill, course-altering turf sprints at Santa Anita, distance specialists—especially those with success on this course, is paramount. Preferred running styles are mid-race movers and closers.


SKINNY: #5 back at tops; #14 course specialist; #3 brilliant worker; #12 course goddess; #2 no chance in last



BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE 1-1/16 Miles

TRUE VALUE: 3-MEXIKOMA (12-1), 10-WE MISS ARTIE (8-1), 4-NEW YEAR’S DAY (8-1)

WORTHY FAVORITE: #13 HAVANA (5-2)

EXOTIC TOTE-BUSTERS: 1-SMARTY’S ECHO (20-1), 2-DANCE WITH FATE (8-1), 14-STRONG MANDATE (6-1)

PLAYING THE PERCENTAGES: Speedy and tactical youngsters enjoy a natural advantage around two turns, given an overall lack of experience. Winning recent-prep is a shortcut to success in this event.

SKINNY: #3 ready for acid test; 10-training star; 4-another brilliant worker; #13 post a killer; #1 tactical, pole, E.T.; #2 moving forward; #14 gets mulligan, Rosario


BREEDERS’ CUP TURF 3 & UP 1-1/2 Miles

TRUE VALUE: 9-INDY POINT (9-2), 11-MAGICIAN (8-1), 4-LITTLE MIKE

WORTHY FAVORITE: 7-THE FUGUE (3-1)

EXOTIC TOTE-BUSTERS: 3-TWILIGHT ECLIPSE, 12-REAL SOLUTION (8-1), 10-BIG BLUE KITTEN (6-1)

PLAYING THE PERCENTAGES: A three-turn race going 12 furlongs requires stamina above all else. Classy speed types can win this but clearly must be a classy individual. Generally, however, there are no easy leads in Southern California.

SKINNY: #9 insiders on-site love; #11 classy Euro 3YO; #4 Little Rodney Dangerfield; #7 OK, now do it; #3 rattling feet a +; #12 very strong worker; #10 best spot in Turf Classic?


BREEDERS’ CUP SPRINT 3 & UP 6 Furlongs

TRUE VALUE: 9-SECRET CIRCLE (4-1)

WORTHY FAVORITE: 1-JUSTIN PHILLIP (4-1)

EXOTIC TOTE-BUSTERS: 2-THE LUMBER GUY (12-1), 3-GENTLEMEN’S BET (8-1), 6-BAHAMIAN SQUALL (10-1)

PLAYING THE PERCENTAGES: As stated, there’s lots of pace pressure on the SA front end, especially when the fastest horses in the country gather in the same gate. Early and tactical speedsters have dominated past Sprints. Recent well-meant prepsters have enjoyed uncommon success.

SKINNY: #9 classy comebacker brilliant a.m.; #1 better as 5YO; #2 will bring ‘A’ game; #3 speedster gets tested; #6 always fires.


BREEDERS’ CUP MILE 3 & UP 1 Mile Turf

TRUE VALUE: 1-NO JET LAG (8-1)

WORTHY FAVORITE: 8-WISE DAN (even)

EXOTIC TOTE-BUSTERS: 10-ZA APPROVAL (10-1), 4-OBVIOUSLY (10-1)

PLAYING THE PERCENTAGES: Strong Pace + Turf Racing = Winning Closers. Horses need to run fast all out for a mile; high class runners usually dominate.

SKINNY: #1 wise guys aboard; #8 no excuses; #10 uber consistent; #4 rebounding?



BREEDERS’ CUP CLASSIC 3 & UP 1-1/4 Miles

TRUE VALUE: 6-MUCHO MACHO MAN (5-1)

WORTHY FAVORITE: 9-GAME ON DUDE (8-5)

EXOTIC TOTE-BUSTERS: 8-PALACE MALICE (10-1), 10-WILL TAKE CHARGE (12-1), 1-LAST GUNFIGHTER (20-1), 12-FLAT OUT (12-1)

PLAYING THE PERCENTAGES: Unlike the Kentucky Derby at the same trip, deep closers have an extremely hard time winning America’s richest race. Horses entering this off a poor effort seldom, if ever, rebound. Speed and pressers are preferred and it takes an exceptional 3-year-old to beat elders in this event.

SKINNY: #6 all grown up; #9 toughest test of year; #8 remarkable developer; #10 better and better; #1 ignore at peril; #12 brings ‘A’ game.



SANTA ANITA PARK FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 1, 2013

Morning Line Odds in parenthesis. If betting to win, strive for two odds levels above quoted early odds.

True Value horses are automatic plays at anything approximating fair odds. The hope is that closing odds will approximate the morning line quote.

Worthy Favorite horses are those we believe will be--or should be—the public’s choice(s). When more than one horse is indicated in any category, they are listed in graded order of preference.

All Exotic Tote-Busters are primarily meant to fill out exotic and super-exotic wagers. But if closing odds appear well above the morning line, a smaller win wager may be in order.

Carefully manage your bankroll before crafting tickets. Please check all program numbers before wagering.


* * *

BREEDERS’ CUP MARATHON 3 & UP 1-3/4 Miles

TRUE VALUE: 6-INDIAN JONES (5-1)

WORTHY FAVORITE: 10-WORLDLY (6-1)

EXOTIC TOTE-BUSTER(S): 5-SUNS OUT GUNS OUT (10-1)

PLAYING THE PERCENTAGES: Inherent class is not nearly as important and stamina in a race where the jockey is much more a pilot than passenger. Premature moves can beat the best horse in this event. Tread very carefully in what generally is a dubious contest:

Top Contenders: #6 best fits race dynamics; #10 fastest figures; #5 blinkers helped.

THE SKINNY: In general, the Marathon is an inscrutable affair. Tread carefully.


BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE TURF 1 Mile

TRUE VALUE: 4-OUTSTRIP (4-1)

WORTHY FAVORITE: 5-BOBBY’S KITTEN (5-2), 2-GIOVANNI BOLDINI (7-2)

EXOTIC TOTE-BUSTERS: 12-SHAMSHON (12-1), 9-WILSHIRE BOULEVARD (8-1), 11-POKER PLAYER (12-1), 8-BON ACCORD (20-1)

PLAYING THE PERCENTAGES: Given the propensity of young horses to run off a bit due to lack of experience, and the natural order of all things turf, closers generally hold serve here. Despite strength of today’s favorites, race could be a moneymaker.

SKINNY: #4 insider reports on site; #5 very talented, over-hyped; #2 “lads” like; #12 good mover; #9 uncoupled O’Brien; #11 KY. Horse to Watch; #8 Bourbon key race.



BREEDERS’ CUP DIRT MILE 3 & UP 1 Mile

TRUE VALUE: 5-FED BIZ (6-1), 4-BRUJO DE OILEROS (8-1)

WORTHY FAVORITE: 12-GOLDENCENTS (4-1), 11-PANTS ON FIRE (6-1)

EXOTIC TOTE-BUSTER: 2-GOLDEN TICKET (12-1)

PLAYING THE PERCENTAGES: Even IF dirt miles are contested around two turns at SA, there’s little time for conventional rating tactics, making wire scores very difficult. Positive form reversals more common in this race than almost any other BC event.

SKINNY: #5 style, strong works; #4 peaking now; #12 “fastest,’ SA lover; #11 extremely honest; #2 short horse Awesome Again.


BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE FILLIES TURF 1 Mile

TRUE VALUE: 8-CHRISELLIAM (6-1)

WORTHY FAVORITE: 6-VORDA (4-1), #14 MY CONQUESTADORY (9-2)

EXOTIC TOTE-BUSTER: 12-TESTA ROSSI (8-1), 13-SKY PAINTER (15-1), 10-CLENOR (8-1), 4-KITTEN KABOODLE (20-1)

PLAYING THE PERCENTAGES: It is generally accepted that young fillies develop sooner than colts. With a grassy surface, it’s easy to understand that late runners have a natural advantage. Classy turf pedigree lends strength to the individual surface.

SKINNY: #8 very professional; #6 esteemed Euro; #14 bad post, scratch contemplated; #12 replay star; #13 ditto; #10 preferred local; #4 price, position, Johnny.


BREEDERS’ CUP DISTAFF F & M 3 & UP 1-1/8 Miles

TRUE VALUE: NONE

WORTHY FAVORITE: 4-ROYAL DELTA (8-5), 5-BEHOLDER (5-2), 6-PRINCESS OF SYLMAR (9-5)

EXOTIC TOTE-BUSTER: 1-STREET GIRL (30-1)

PLAYING THE PERCENTAGES: The history of this event is cut and dry: Class, speed and favorites dominate. In Distaff 30, how the speed shakes out among major contenders will determine the outcome. Need not bet to enjoy Distaff 30.

SKINNY: #4 older champion pacesetter; #5 extremely ready; #6 perfect-trip potential; #1 potential score-maker better than rated.

The 2014 Pricci SCOREcard is available at brisnet.com, $15 for each day or $25 for the SCOREcard package

Written by John Pricci

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