Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis

Whenever his daily work schedule permits, HorseRaceInsider executive editor John Pricci will analyze that day's feature race from a major thoroughbred-racing jurisdiction.



Monday, August 20, 2012


Rachel, We Choose Sarah


Today's Union Avenue Stakes present a possible opportunity to beat the heavy favorite, Risky Rachel (6-5). Superior Sarah (6-1) has been pointed carefully to this spot, she's improved since adding bllinkers and her outside draw could produce the perfect setup.

Running Totals: (1146) 352-220-173 Total Dollar Return: $2,415.80 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci



 
 

Sunday, August 19, 2012


Stephanie’s Kitten, Hear Me Roar


Everything you need to know about today's feature race can be found at a replay center near you.

That's because today's featured Grade 2 Lake Placid Stakes for 3-year-old fillies going 9 furlongs on Saratoga's Inner Turf course is a virtual re-run of last month G2 Lake George. Five of the six fillies here come out of that event and the other from the Coaching Club American Oaks.

That filly, Disposablepleasure (8-1), has been keeping Grade 1 company on the dirt this season and finally gets back on the grass, where she made her racing debut here at 2, finishing gamely for fourth after losing much ground into the stretch.

Her recent turf breeze for her grass return was 3rd fastest that week among 40 in her peer group; she's interesting, if only for her early line odds.

However, the replay will indicate that it's Stephanie's Kitten (9-5) that looms the one to beat, considering she never, ever had a chance in the Lake George.

If it were a harness race, the comment might be "raging with pace." She was raging for sure. Johnny Velazquez kept looking for openings and wherever he went, so went the leaders.

Finally, Johnny steered her throught the needle's eye, the filly got to running, but too late. She never was was able to match the momentum of Centre Court and Better Lucky. With today's added sixteenth, the softer pace will allow him to position his filly at bit closer and she should secure running room given normal conditions.

Taking Stephanie's Kitten to win, no price restrictions, and keying her in multiples with Centre Court (2-1) and Medolina (4-1).

Running Totals: (1145) 351-220-173 Total Dollar Return: $2,411.60 [win selections only]



Written by John Pricci



 
 

Saturday, August 18, 2012


Grade 1 Question: Who Shall Lead Them?


Another Saturday and where else but at the Spa can you plan on making a play on a Grade 1 Double. That’s the plan here as the Sword Dancer for older turf males leads up to the storied Alabama which is, of course, for sophomore fillies going a mile and quarter on the main.

Race 9 will go 12 furlongs on the inner turf and of the nine entered, four have the best chances to succeed; Point of Entry (5-2), Newsdad (12-1), Brilliant Speed (6-1) and Turbo Compressor (2-1).

When last seen, the early line favorite, Turbo Compressor, was winning the G1 United Nations at 11 furlongs. His trainer wasn't sure he could get 1-3/8 miles.

What do you suppose Todd Pletcher thinks about his chances this Saturday? If he shakes loose beneath Bravo again, his chances are excellent. But at early line odds and shouldering 123 vs. a tougher group, we’ll look elsewhere.

Brilliant Speed was the victim of circumstances all winter and early speed then just was flat out disappointing. However, he’s 1-for-1 on this course, earned his best figure at this trip when third in the BC Turf and gets a switch to Castellano. He could put it all together.

Newsdad is tempting, entering this off a Turf Decline Line and earned a lifetime best figure winning the G2 Pan American at this distance at Gulfstream this past winter. At once you need to put him in the race but must carefully handle the lines, too; the switch to Rosario is very interesting, as is the 12-1 quote.

But Point Of Entry looks like the most probable winner as he’s 2-for-2 at 12 furlongs and is 4-for-6, including the G1 Man o’ War since adding blinkers. An inside draw and Johnny will make him a very tough out.

Would love to beat Grace Hall (7-5) in the Alabama but I’d be lying if I said I knew how. Zo Impressive (5-1) and In Lingerie (6-1), the 2-3 finishers in the CCAO behind Questing, the 5-2 second favorite here, should benefit most by the added distance.

But Grace Hall’s last was off-the-charts fast, she’s had five weeks recovery, is bred very stoutly on the dam’s side, and was a G1 winner of the Spinaway here at 2. She’s just got too much going for her in this spot.

We’ll take doubles with Point of Entry and Newsdad, trying to get alive to Grace Hall. We’ll bet Point of Entry and Newsdad to win and key them with their rivals here in exotics.

In the Alabama, we’ll key Grace Hall first and second in exactas with her rivals above, and will add Questing and late developing Sea Island (12-1) to the super-exotic mix.

For purposes of the running total, we're on record with Point Of Entry in the Sword Dancer and Grace Hall in the Alabama to win.


Running Totals: (1143) 350-220-173 Total Dollar Return: $2,406.80 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci



 
 

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