Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis

Whenever his daily work schedule permits, HorseRaceInsider executive editor John Pricci will analyze that day's feature race from a major thoroughbred-racing jurisdiction.

Sunday, July 01, 2012

Chance for Value in the Bed o’ Roses

The first impulse a handicapper has when he looks at today’s Grade 3 Bed O’ Roses Handicap is to try to beat the 8-5 early line favorite. Coming back relatively soon after a very hard fought G2 victory, it’s reasonable to think that a top effort might not be forthcoming, especially beneath high weight of 122 pounds.

But the race shape falls into her lap as chances are that the super sharp ship-in Catinatree (10-1) will take advantage of her draw and zip to the front, in receipt of nine pounds from the favorite.

Drawn right alongside in post 7, Junior Alvarado should enjoy a stalking trip on a 5-year-old mare that’s never been beaten on this surface. However, it doesn’t make sense to take a short price, likely somewhere around even money, for a mare coming off a significant lifetime best performance figure.

The filly in the best spot to make an aggressive inside-out turn move is Derwin’s Star (3-1) since, despite the class rise, she owns enough tactical speed, gets eight pounds from the choice, is 2-for-3 at the trip and attracts Ramon Dominguez. She has the back figures to compete and her spacing seems ideal. Further, she blew out sharply at her Parx base for this.

We’ll take Derwin’s Star to win, at a minimum of 3-1, box her in the exacta with the favorite, and add price shot Catinatree to the exotic mix.

Running Totals: (1107) 340-214-167 Total Dollar Return: $2,342.90 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


Saturday, June 30, 2012

Double Your Pleasure, Double Your Fun

For a complete analysis of today's Grade 2 stakes from Belmont Park, see Pricci Morning Line on the lead page

For the record, taking Banimpire to win the New York Stakes, no price restrictions.

For the record, taking Zetterholm to win the Dwyer at 5-2 or greater and an exacta box with Teeth Of The Dog.

Running Totals: (1105) 340-214-167 Total Dollar Return: $2,342.90 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


Friday, June 29, 2012

Rajiv on the Lead

Today’s featured fourth race at Belmont Park is a secondary allowances-optional offering few alternatives to the favorites Imagining (6-5) and second choice Tahoe Lake (2-1).

The favorite will be a very tough out. Shug McGaughey 4-year-old won his recent season’s debut and this is just a step up the class ladder before his return to the stakes ranks.

The last time he tried the division’s top turf runners, he finished second in the G1 Hollywood Derby at this 10-furlong trip. He retains his sharp recent form, given a half-mile breeze in :47, a bullet-best out of 45 runners. Ramon will ride.

Based on performance figures, however, Tahoe Lake deserves to be close second choice since he owns the fastest final figures, some by a fairly significant margin.

He’s been second twice and third in his three most recent starts in graded company including a close-up finish behind Simmard at Churchill Downs, that won coming back to win a Canadian graded event on the Queen’s Plate undercard last Sunday.

Trainer Ken McPeek is 24% effective with recent beaten favorites and turns the ride over to Julien Leparoux.

But given that this race is on the speed-favoring inner course, we’re giving Grand Rapport (5-1) a puncher’s chance to upset the choices. He’s really come to hand this season, as geldings at 5 often do, and has earned fairly competitive figures all season.

In his only start at this distance, Grand Rapport was severely hindered by a dawdling pace over off ground. Given today’s dynamics, he can be the one sitting the slow pace beneath new rider Rajiv Maragh.

Taking Grand Rapport to win at early line odds or greater and key boxing him first and second in multiple pools with the two favorites.

Running Totals: (1104) 340-214-166 Total Dollar Return: $2,342.90 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


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