Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis
Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks
. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.
In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line"
column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line"
Friday, June 08, 2007
Mott, Prado and Marcavelly Winning Team in Belmont Feature
The Friday Belmont Week card is topped by the Grade 3 Hill Prince for three-year-old grass runners going a mile on the Widener turf course. What it lacks in quantity it offers in quality, a two-horse battle between Storm In May and Marcavelly.
When last seen, Storm In May was looking at the hindquarters of Street Sense, among others, in the Kentucky Derby. The start before that it was Curlin, while finishing second in the Arkansas Derby. Back to reality, and turf, today.
Storm In May never has finished off the board on grass in six lifetime starts, including two victories. He worked a bullet for this at his Calder base, trainer Kaplan is profitable with this kind of freshening, and regular rider Juan Leyva is up from Florida for the ride.
Hopefully, he will attract a lot of play on company lines because Marcavelly is the most probable winner. He’s faster on performance figures, is a Grade 3 winner on grass, and broke his maiden on Belmont turf at 2. Edgar Prado, his regular rider, gets a leg up from Bill Mott. He won’t make you rich.
We’re taking Marcavelly to win, no price restrictions, and a cold exacta with Storm in May.
Running Totals: (35) 15-9-7 Dollar Return $82.30 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Thursday, June 07, 2007
Potential Over Proven Class At Fair Odds
Thursday’s Belmont Week feature is a "non-winners of 3 other-than…optional claiming $75,000" for older turf runners going nine furlongs over what figures again to be "good" Belmont turf.
There is no disputing that Dave (3-1) and Golden Commander (7-2) deserve their first and second choice status. Dave, arguably the class, is consistently fastest, and makes his second start off a layup following a tough-trip return. Johnny Velazquez rides him back hoping to atone for helping that tough trip along. Golden Commander is a nine furlong grass specialist and has proven back class and speed.
Cosmic Kris is a longshot (12-1) with a chance. His last was good, losing ground on the turn while in the midst of a strong move. His figures are fairly competitive, he’s drawn inside, and worked a strong 5/8ths while under restraint recently. Whether his peak try is good enough to beat these is another matter. It might pay to guess if he’s anything near early line odds.
But Mystic Ruler (8-1) looks like a comer. He continues his incremental improvement, has four-year-old upside potential, is 50 days fresh, and attracts Prado off the second choice. He, too, is working well for Rick Violette. Further improvement today puts him in the photograph at playable odds.
Taking Mystic Ruler to win at 5-1 or greater, and keying him first and second in trifectas with the three contenders named.
One of Two Suggested Win Bets Won Yesterday But Did Not Meet Price Requirements
Written by John Pricci
Wednesday, June 06, 2007
Interesting Betting Race Begins Belmont Week
Wednesday’s feature to begin Belmont Stakes week is a good betting race, “a non-winners of two other than…optional claiming” at six furlongs on the inner turf course, attracting a full field. From the inside out, any one of six could win, although one from the also eligible list is unlikely to start.
Ferocious Won (4-1) has the best performance figures, the right connections and a promising turf pedigree, but it’s hard to spot experience to so many proven turf horses. Not a good percentage win play, but easily could prove us wrong.
Redefined (9-2) is razor sharp coming off a win, the spacing is good, and trainer John Parisella continues to overachieve given limited opportunities.
Theconfidenceman (6-1) is very interesting. He makes his second start off a layup for Leo O’Brien, who’s twice as effective coming off a prep race than when he is when not. The turf pro has good back figures and fits the conditions nicely at fair early line odds.
Metro Meteor (8-1) is the other interesting entrant. He was scratched recently from a recent stakes going longer now returns in a more favorable spot for Gary Contessa, a profitable 18 percent with new acquisitions. The horse is fast, can finish, and likes this course. His late run could be very effective in this spot.
No Parole (3-1) is a six-furlong turf specialist at Belmont Park but, at early line odds and with a wide draw, looms a poor percentage win play.
I almost don’t want to see Mr Sam I Am (8-1) draw in. He’s 2-for-3 on Belmont turf and 1-for-1 at the distance. On performance figures, he broke through in his recent four-year-old debut, and is dangerous on the turn-back for Todd and Johnny. His early line odds offer value but he is unlikely to be anything near that price at post time.
We are betting two horses to win here: Theconfidenceman at 5-1 or better, and Metro Meteor at 6-1 or more. Both will be counted in running totals but only if they satisfy odds requirements. (That’s only fair when suggesting two win plays in the same race. Selections are for turf only).
We will also key Theconfidenceman and Metro Meteor first and second with the other horses named in the trifecta, giving us a chance to cash twice if it breaks the right way.
Running Totals: (35) 15-9-7 Dollar Return: $82.30 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci