Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis

Whenever his daily work schedule permits, HorseRaceInsider executive editor John Pricci will analyze that day's feature race from a major thoroughbred-racing jurisdiction.

Sunday, February 26, 2012

A Model of Consistency

Today’s Gulfstream feature is the highly anticipated Fountain of Youth Stakes that is deservedly billed as a three horse race among two undefeated Todd Pletcher trained colts, Algorithms (8-5) and Discreet Dancer (3-1), and a colt many feel was the best juvenile to race last year.

On the Equiform scale, those in that camp may be right. Union Rags (2-1) ran as fast going long when second to Hansel in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile as Algorithms did while winning the Holy Bull. (The fastest final figure belongs to Discreet Dancer in his sprint debut.)

Union Rags will have two preps for the Kentucky Derby, so he figures to be pretty tight for today’s race. Matz has been handling him in that fashion while careful not to turn the screws too tightly. He might prove the “best horse” of the big three but how that translates today is little more than a guess.

Algorithms, based on a newly found ability to rate and the fact the trainer Pletcher owns a 25% strike rate with third-off-the-layoff starters. But what if Discreet Dancer gets away soft because rivals are too afraid to press him early? Or Union Rags indeed is the “best horse.” A fascinating puzzle to be sure.

We’re taking likely pocket-sitting finisher Algorithms to win with no price restrictions, key boxing him in exactas with his two main rivals and adding excuse-laden Casual Trick (8-1) to the exotics mix.

Running Totals: (1032) 319-203-148 Total Dollar Return: $2,199.80 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


Saturday, February 25, 2012

El Padrino is a Rising Star but Shared Property’s the Play.

El Padrino, IMHO, can't get beat, at least not on the Equiform scale, anyway. But I'm going to use him in a defensive position, because I'm committed to Shared Property (6-1) off tough, wide trip third in the LeComte.

He's developing beautifully and earned New Pace Top status in his surface debut. He's trained purposefully since and should go forward with Tampa's leading rider aloft for the very live Tom Amoss.

El Padrino (2-1) earned top figure score in 3-year-old debut at Gulfstream, handling the talented Take Charge Indy with authority; he's the most probable winner off a huge final-figure edge.

Taking Shared Property to win at 4-1 or greater, an exacta box with El Padrino, and adding Mr. Bowling and Optimizer to the exotics mix.

Running Totals: (1032) 319-203-148 Total Dollar Return: $2,199.80 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


Friday, February 24, 2012

That Clyde’s a Real Charmer

A really interesting secondary allowances/optional claimer in today’s ninth race turf feature at Tampa Bay Downs for older horses going one mile, an eclectic mix of surface and distance lovers and a few with some back class.

Give me Jamie Ness!

Not trying to be funny here but we like the scenario surrounding My Charming Clyde (4-1). Not known for his dirt to turf runners, this one makes sense.

All his turf wins have come on this ground where he’s earned competitive Equiform figures going longer and shorter than today’s route; 8 furlongs should suit ideally.

Late developing 5-year-old gelding gained needed conditioning from his last, a race that produced one winner from two subsequent starters. Stable rider Goncalves aloft.

Taking My Charming Clyde to win at 3-1 or greater, an exacta box with price shot Crimson Knight (10-1), adding sharp returnee Charging Home (5-1) and very classy veteran, Beckham’s Bend (3-1).

Running Totals: (1031) 319-203-148 Total Dollar Return: $2,199.80 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


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