Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis
Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks
. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.
In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line"
column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line"
Friday, November 14, 2008
It’s Not Nice to Fooli Houli
Don’t Fooli Houli (3-1), Key Event (3-1), and Bontempi (5-2). The winner of today’s feature should come from that trio.
Key Event is fastest on performance figures, and by a significant margin. The six-year-old seems to be improving with age and keeps marching forward incrementally, meaning that there may not be a backward move in his immediate future. Any chinks in the armor might be his seeming preference for firm ground, unlikely here. He has handle good turf but his figures regress on yielding or soft.
Don’t Fooli Houli will like off ground, based on his last, and his prior was faster than anything in here other than Key Event. The problem is that he might be more sprint meant than middle-distance oriented. But he’s nicely drawn, in capable hands of low profile connections and is coming off a Turf Decline Line Equiform pattern owning tactical speed.
Bontempi is also on a pattern, a Pace Low, and any improvement over his prior figure, which was competitive, puts him in this off the freshening for the Tagg/Coa team. That competitive figure, incidentally, came on off ground. Rooting for this race to remain on turf.
Taking Don’t Fooli Houli to win at 5-2 or greater and keying him first and second in exactas and trifectas with his rivals here.
Running Totals: (310) 95-64-39. Total Dollar Return: $650.20 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Thursday, November 13, 2008
The Eagle Flies with City Bird
Extremely competitive feature, the listed Meadow Star for sprinting fillies 3 & up going the hybrid distance of 6-½ furlongs. Trips will be important here as many of the top contenders have the same speed/stalking style.
City Bird (5-2) owns a win at this tricky distance and comes back with strong and steady recent works off the six week layup for Rick Dutrow, who excels in this time frame. The filly, nicely drawn outside, owns the best late kick and would benefit from a pace meltdown beneath Edgar Prado. Her best Equiform figures have come at today’s trip.
Miss Blue Tye Dye (10-1) ships in very sharp for Robert Reid with Frankie Pennington, a profitable partner thus far this season, and you can expect Pennington to play this one off the break. The filly has speed when you want the lead and the gas to stay close to any filly that wants it. Four and a half weeks fresh, she has carried today’s 123-pound assignment successfully in the past. She’s not fast, just tough, and an interesting price shot.
Taking City Bird to win at 2-1 or greater, an exacta box with Miss Blue Tye Dye, and keying her first and second in trifectas with ‘Tye Dye,’ quick three-year-old Tar Heel Mom (9-5) and distance specialist Are We Dreamin (12-1).
[Running Totals Will be Updated Tomorrow]
Written by John Pricci
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
In the Mood for a Blues Cruise?
Today’s feature race, the listed Fairy Garden Stakes for older fillies and mares on the turf at a mile and a sixteenth “for horses that have not a graded stakes over a mile on turf in 2008,” fits plenty of horses in this country but none better than either the ironically named fillies, Blues for Sale (8-1) and Bsharpsonata (2-1).
The reasons why each fits the conditions so snugly is that the former never has run on turf, nor has she even started in a race this year, while the latter has won a Grade 2 on dirt going seven furlongs on a wet track, but never a graded turf event despite a pair of wins at that surface.
Bsharpsonata makes her first start for the Todd Pletcher barn off a lengthy layup. He has entered the filly Main Track Only, and she would be the choice on class lines alone should this race be rescheduled to the main track. She’d be an obvious choice, but not so Rick Dutrow’s filly.
Bred in Argentina, the filly has been training with supreme purpose. With the possible exception of one missed work, the IEAH five-year-old South American has worked every six days dating back to Sept. 1. She kept excellent company in her native land, too, having won a pair of Grade 3s and a G2. In addition to her terrific workline, she attracts turf ace Edgar Prado and is nicely bred on her paternal side for the surface.
Taking Blues for Sale to win at 5-1 or greater and exacta and trifectas key boxes first and second with Chestoria (12-1), who‘s getting some class relief, give in the ground and a switch to Alan Garcia, and Jade Queen (5-2), the solid solid turf-intended Pletcher trainee.
Running Totals: (309) 95-64-39 Total Dollar Return: $650.20 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci