Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis
Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks
. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.
In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line"
column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line"
Friday, November 07, 2008
Highly Competitive Mile at Aqueduct
A skull buster of a feature today, a money allowances/optional claimer at a mile--only a six-horse field but with infinite possibilities.
For instance: The sharp Mister Triester was recently claimed by Gary Contessa from Steve Asmussen, Contessa, of course, profitable for a career first time off the claim. What to do? He will improve upon Asmussen on relatively short rest?
Then there’s stakes winning Sir Whimsey, who seemingly prefers to ran farther but comes off a freshening first-time Steve Asmussen. Why shouldn’t he improve in his first start for a barn that wins at a 22 percent rate with new acquisitions.
Classy? When last seen, Sir Whimsey finished third in the Grade 1 Pimlico Special. And he’s won at this distance and over today’s surface.
And how about Timber Reserve, from the hot John Kimmel shed, who set strong fractions and held well for third in the G2 Meadowlands Cup last time out?
But, instead, we’ll go in another direction--Bribon--who freaked while winning at the distance two starts back, earning the race’s best recent performance figure, has won over the surface, has a worthy (3) 1-2-0 slate at the trip and reunites with Alan Garcia, who rode him to victory at this meet last year.
Bribon’s freaky performance came in his second start off the layup, today’s scenario, and that’s no accident. Trainer Bobby Ribaudo is a profitable 18 percent with second-off-the-layup starters, and is also profitable on the stretch-out and with beaten favorites. His recent return at six furlongs looked like a good race to build on. We shall see.
Taking Bribon to win at 5-2 or greater, keying him first and second in exactas and trifectas with Mister Triester and Sir Whimsey.
Running Totals: (306) 93-63-39 Total Dollar Return: $617.00 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Thursday, November 06, 2008
Victory Would Be Grand
Today’s feature, a money allowances for older sprinters going six furlongs, is routinely impossible. Out of seven entered two are coming off extended layups and two are making their second starts off an extended layup. And everyone’s either got speed or wants to stalk from close range.
You’ve got to take a stand somewhere, so we’ll go against the returnees and the speed types and reluctantly take a horse returning from a layup with a barn that excels in that scenario, has a favorable draw, with tactical speed and a position conscious rider.
While it seems that Grand Champion has a lot going for him, plus a touch of back class, Jimmy Jerkens is adding blinkers, which seems not only counter intuitive but not a particularly good angle for this outfit. But Jerkens is good in second-off-the-layup scenario, the colt reunites with Eibar Coa, who gets along with the 5-year-old better than anyone else, and worked well recently, presumably in blinkers.
I think any of the others can not only beat him but finish on the board. Taking Grand Champion to win and place at 3-1 or greater.
Running Totals: (305) 92-63-39 Total Dollar Return: $608.80 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Wednesday, November 05, 2008
Namaste’s Finally Gets Her Wish
Interesting feature to start the NYRA week, the listed Rare Blend Stakes at 1-1/16 miles for fillies and mares which have not won a stakes race at a mile this year. And if there ever was a time for the disappointing Namaste’s Wish (7-2), coupled with the very sharp Remarkable Remy, to break through, today’s the day.
The three-year-old filly never really showed much development this year but has been caught up in a series of unfavorable pace scenarios or bad rides or both. The seven week freshening and switch to Johnny Velazquez should augur well, as she’s coming off a pace decline line with the promise of honest fractions today. Common interest mate Remarkable Remy is very sharp and also with excellent performance figures. The only knock on her is the tough draw.
This race might have some money making potential as there are others that can fill out exotic pool positions. We’re taking Namaste’s Wish to win at 3-1 or greater, keying her first and second in exactas and trifectas with the sharp, well drawn and improving Joyful (12-1), Polar Circle (6-1), our choice’s uncoupled mate who could shake irretrievably loose beneath turf ace Joe Bravo, the very sharp and logical early line favorite, Sea Chanter (3-1), and, in trifectas, underrated Senior Rita Lady (8-1).
Running Totals: (304) 92-62-39 Total Dollar Return: $608.80 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci