Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis

Whenever his daily work schedule permits, HorseRaceInsider executive editor John Pricci will analyze that day's feature race from a major thoroughbred-racing jurisdiction.

Friday, April 27, 2012

Let’s Make Amends at Keeneland

A wise betting man once said “the place you lose it is the place you get it back.”

Well, it’s another graded mile and a half turf race for older horses at Keeneland, this one for males.

Yesterday, we might have been on to something with 6-1 chance Senada but believe Javier Castellano might have made a premature love to the lead.

Well, there may be some value available with Simmard (3-1) in today’s G2 Elkhorn at 12 furlongs.

You want need a road map to find the correct favorite in Newsdad (9-5) who beat Simmard under similar conditions at Gulfstream Park. He’s improving with every start and at 4 is just now developing.

But this is Keeneland, where Simmard has done some of his best racing and figure earning; Castellano gets a chance to make amends and of greatest significance, a 6-pound weight switch with the favorite making his course debut.

Taking Simmard to win at 3-1 or greater, an exacta box with Newsday, and adding uncoupled mate Musketier (4-1) to the mix.

Running Totals: (1068) 328-210-159 Total Dollar Return: $2,259.20 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


Thursday, April 26, 2012

Senada; It All Fits

Today’s Keeneland feature on the penultimate day of the spring meet is the Grade 3 Bewitch for older fillies and mares going a mile and a half on turf. These are, of course, “rider’s races.”

You need timing, and the trip, and the ability to get the trip and it never hurts, especially on the Lexington green, to have shown an affinity for the course.

Enter Senada (4-1) who not only fits all the parameters as detailed above but has been sent through her paces three times—13 furlongs--in the past 11 days, an indication that Barclay Tagg means business today.

Yes, she earned an excellent performance figure on the Equiform scale at the distance and over the course, and a switch to Castellano and an inside post and likely ground-saving run can seal this deal in an otherwise open spot.

Taking Senada to win at 3-1 or greater and keying her first and second in multiples with Here To Here (5-2), a G3 winner last out, and Woodford Belle (3-1), who draws the meet’s leading rider in Leparoux for the very live and productive Michelle Nihei.

Running Totals: (1067) 328-210-158 Total Dollar Return: $2,259.20 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


Wednesday, April 25, 2012

The One and Only Dos Lunas

Today’s Keeneland feature, a secondary allowances for older fillies and mares going a mile and a sixteenth on the Keeneland turf course, boasts an evenly matched group and the question for us is twofold:

Do we take the fastest horse by definition, the filly coming off a lengthy layoff for Chris Clement whose Equiform figures are clearly faster than the group on her best go, or one with recency who’s repeating a favorable stretchout pattern and has raced well on this course?

Clement’s Blue Maiden (2-1) with the meet’s leading rider, Julien Leparoux, was competitive in graded competition in California and owns a win at today’s trip. But we will side with Dos Lunas (5-2) who reunites with Jon Court whose patience suits this filly well.

The clincher, however, including her ground saving position is the fact that she earned an excellent performance figure on this ground when narrowly beaten here, a neck loss behind redoubtable Winter Memories. Court’s patience will be needed and hopefully will pay dividends in this spot.

Taking Dos Lunas to win at early line odds or greater and keying her in money positions with the favorite and sharp working Startling Beauty (7-2). Super exotic players can add Gorder-trained returnee Maid of Silver (7-2) to their mix.

Running Totals: (1066) 328-209-158 Total Dollar Return: $2,259.20 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


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