Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis
Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks
. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.
In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line"
column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line"
Thursday, April 16, 2009
Better Than All the Rest
A wide open interesting feature at Keeneland this afternoon, the G3 Appalachian Stakes for three-year-old fillies going one mile on the turf. A chance to get bettable odds on jockey Garrett Gomez?
Well, More Of The Best is 8-1 on the early line from an advantageous from an inside slip, has never taken a backward step on the Equiform scale in three lifetime starts on turf, is coming off a pace low, attracts the aforementioned Gomez, is 2-for-3 at the distance with a placing and has worked well for her Keeneland course debut.
Of note is the fact that trainer Bernie Flint is profitable for a career on grass and is saving an excellent season, batting a profitable 21 percent. Worth a mention here is that this is one horse Gomez need not take back to last. She has good early foot at her best distance with a inside post a and it would be wise for Gomez to take advantage of those conditions.
Her toughest rival is logical favorite Habaya (3-1). Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin is relevant in all statistical categories, she a G3 winner at the distance and switches to stable rider and turf ace Alan Garcia.
Taking More Of the Best at 5-1 or greater and an exacta box with Habaya.
Running Totals: (405) 124-86-53 Total Dollar Return: $849.00 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
I’ve Got the Fever
Today’s feature as we approach the home stretch of the Keeneland spring meet is a money allowances/optional claiming for fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs. Three interesting fillies here are two of the favorites; Sly Storm (5-2), Rising Fever (3-1) and the price shot Adrhythm (10-1).
Sly Storm is a deserving favorite owing to her 5-for-7 lifetime mark. While she clearly owns bigger victories, her biggest with respect to today was her maiden breaker on this track, at this distance at 3. Training strongly for her 4-year-old debut, she returns for Tom Proctor, who certainly can come out firing off the bench, and attracts Rene Douglas, who’s awakened following a disappointing Gulfstream meet.
Rising Fever makes her Keeneland debut for Christophe Clement who’s come out firing at this meeting with a 2-2-0 slate in seven starts. This filly is having a good winter, just missing behind the talented Dream Rush at today’s distance before winning the 7 furlong Manatee next out. With tactical speed and an outside slip in a relatively small field, she’s not only well positioned but attracts Garrett Gomez.
Adrhythm probably prefers more ground, as her record attests, but clearly is a horse for the course. She won her only start on this track last season at 7 furlongs, earning a lifetime best figure. With a return to Keeneland and reuniting with Kent Desormeaux, aboard fro her most recent victory, she likely will work out a decent trip behind what figures to be a live and contested pace. She has an excellent puncher's chance to outrun odds.
But we'll take the New Pace Top, Rising Fever, at 2-1 or greater, and keying her first and second in exactas with her rivals here.
Running Totals: (404) 124-85-53 Total Dollar Return: $849.00 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Saturday, April 11, 2009
Getting the Lay of the Land in the Bluegrass
If it’s Saturday and if it's…oh, you get the idea…
But today is the centerpiece of the Keeneland meet, the Grade 1 Blue Grass, a pivotal Kentucky Derby prep. Pre-Poly, anyway.
Even though he’s automatically in, Euro shipper Mafaaz is prepping again for the Derby, John Gosden electing for two preps instead of one. However, why no Lasix today? Saving it for Louisville?
And how about this spot for a 3-year-old debut? That’s what Kiaran McLaughlin is doing with Charitable Man (4-1), an undefeated Grade 2 winner as a juvenile and working lights out for this. One certainly can leg up on Polytrack, it’s three weeks from the dance, and he’s 2-for-2 on dirt. McLaughlin is first rate off lengthy layups, this colt is fast, and attracts stable rider Alan Garcia.
Favorite Hold Me Back (3-1) was very impressive winning the Lane’s End in his season’s debut and is now 3-for-4 on three different synthetic surfaces. To come from far back on the cupping out Turfway Polytrack is not easy. He is, however, likely to regress off a big lifetime top Equiform figure, although 3-year-olds are known to pair tops in the spring. But at the price and wide draw, we’ll play against.
Theregoesjojo (7-2) has been terrific this season and is the only colt to finish ahead of Quality Road. Interestingly, if he wants a Derby run, his earnings are on the bubble. He doesn’t have to win this, but needs a healthy slice. He’s worked well for his synthetic debut.
Terrain (6-1) is second off the layup for Al Stall, a good percentage move in and of itself. He finished very well late when third in the G2 Louisiana Derby behind the streaking Friesan Fire, was second in a G1 on this track at 2 and was beaten less than three lengths after a tough first turn in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile on Pro-Ride. He has two sharp works over the surface and attracts Keeneland’s hottest rider not named Johnny Velazquez in Julien Leparoux.
Betting Terrain to win at 5-1 or greater and keying him in exacta and trifecta money positions with Charitable Man, Hold Me Back and Theregoesjojo, adding General Quarters (15-1), on the bounce-rebound and switching to Eibar Coa with a sharp recent work, to the trifecta mix.
Running Totals: (403) 124-85-53 Total Dollar Return: $849.00 [win selections only]
There will be no selections in this space tomorrow. Happy Easter, Happy Passover to all our loyal readers
Written by John Pricci