Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis
Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks
. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.
In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line"
column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line"
Saturday, July 14, 2007
Mile Specialists Battle On Belmont Turf
Today’s feature is a good, competitive one, the Grade 3 Poker Stakes at one mile for three-year-olds and older on the Widener turf course. Three horses of interest are mile specialists to varying degrees. From the inside out, they are: Art Master (7-2), Classic Campaign (4-1) and Host (5-2).
Art Master clearly has been pointed toward this, coming off a seven week layoff following his season’s debut on dirt for Bobby Frankel. Drawn inside with tactical speed, the six-year-old was third on this course in the Grade 2 Kelso last fall, has won half of his six starts at the distance, worked sharply for this and attracts Garrett Gomez for a trainer that is a profitable 25 percent going dirt to turf. Expect GG to try to work out a trip here.
Classic Campaign has been training up a storm for turf ace Billy Mott, and the improving five-year-old gelding boasts a (6) 2-2-0 slate at today’s distance. He seems to need no specific made-to-order conditions but does his best running--like most successful grass runners--from off the pace. Kent Desormeaux, the new stable rider, has owned both Belmont grass courses at this meet. Of the three, he is most likely to provide value.
Host, a Grade 1 winner at eight furlongs, is an obvious class play. The seven-year-old pro continues to hold his form very well for Todd Pletcher, who goes to one of his Gulfstream Park/Monmouth regulars, Chris De Carlo, who won aboard Host in the recent Elkwood at the shore track. Working every seventh day, Host will try to improve on his laudable (8) 4-2-0 mile record.
Opting for potential value, we’re taking Classic Campaign to win at 3-1 or more, keying him first and second in exactas with the two major contenders.
Running Totals: (60) 29-12-9 Dollar Return: $168.10 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Friday, July 13, 2007
Christmas In July
Today’s Belmont feature is at nine furlongs on the inner turf for four-year-olds and up, a secondary allowances with optional claiming price of $50,000. It’s an interesting race that has as many questions as possibilities. What you don’t want is a short price.
Four horses look the most interesting, from the inside, out: Centaurus, Prince Rahy, Santa’s Gold and Americaner.
Centaurus ran as if he needed his U.S. debut last out. He didn’t flash any speed until much too late but has come back to work well since for Saaed bin Suroor who’s a profitable 29 percent with his turf runners. Jean Luc Samyn rides him back from post 2.
Prince Rahy is arguably the fastest horse on performance figures and his last equaled his lifetime best effort. The problem is that he comes back on short rest with another rider, even if it is the turf-hot Kent Desormeaux. A repeat effort would win this but that’s a tough call.
Americaner boasts a bounce/rebound pattern and should move forward after being pitched high in a recent stakes. Trainer Bernardo Callejas is a profitable 15 percent for a career and is very effective with his allowance types. Cornelio Velasquez rides.
But we’re taking Santa’s Gold who poised for a top effort. The developing four-year-old never has taken a backward step on turf and in Stanley Hough has a trainer showing a lifetime profit at this track. Javier Castellano is four for his last 16 for this barn and is profitable for his career on grass.
Drawn in mid-pack, Santa’s Gold has enough tactical speed with kick to get home with a good trip.
Taking Santa’s Gold to win, no price restrictions, and keying him with the other three contenders in all trifecta positions.
Running Totals: (58) 29-12-9 Dollar Return: $168.10 [win selections only, does not include Thursday’s results]
Written by John Pricci
Thursday, July 12, 2007
Even On Turf, Early Speed Always Dangerous
As a matter of course, backing early speed on the grass over anything but a speed-favoring, hard surface is sheer folly. Color me reckless, especially since this speed type is disadvantageously drawn outside.
Today’s feature at Belmont is the restricted Naskra’s Breeze Stakes, limited to older state-breds going a mile and a sixteenth on the inner turf. We’ll concentrate on several performers; from the inside, out: Dave, Sabellina and Retribution.
Dave (5-2) is one of the logical favorites. He hails from a very live barn for owners that won Sunday’s finale on the turf. Dave has kick and a modicum of positional speed. Nicely drawn inside, he attracts JR Velazquez and trainer Barclay Tagg is profitable with returnees from a five-week layup. Classy, he fits this group very nicely.
Sabellina (10-1) is interesting because she is a female vs. males from a live, underrated turf barn and attracts turf ace Garrett Gomez, whose chilly grass style fits the mare perfectly. The six-year-old is a four-time winner on this course and finished well too late in a recent sprint prep for this. She’s now set for best.
Retribution (9-2) should provide excellent value relative to his chances for victory. A three-time Belmont winner and somewhat of a distance specialist with two wins at the route, he enters this off a two-sprint regimen, a profitable scenario for trainer John Hertler.
Hertler has an excellent record in non-graded stakes as well and reaches out for the aggressive Cornelio Velasquez. Retribution is the dominant speed who will control tempo here.
Taking Retribution to win at 4-1 or greater, an exacta key box first and second with Dave and Sabellina, and a trifecta key box, in all spots, adding Classic Pack (15-1) to the mix.
Running Totals: (58) 29-12-9 Dollar Return: $168.10 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci