Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis
Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks
. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.
In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line"
column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line"
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
A Hint of Mint
Enjoy today’s featured presentation from New York: It might be the last one we see for a while.
It’s a nice little heat, a preliminary allowances/optional $75,000 claiming for three-year-olds at a mile and 70 yards. We’ll concentrate our analysis on, from the rail, out: Mint Lane (5-2), Holidaze (4-1) and Globalization (9-5).
Mint Lane was monstrous with the addition of Lasix last time out for Jimmy Jerkens. His energy distribution improved markedly, picking up the tempo while front running throughout. That’s pretty strong stuff, especially considering it was his third lifetime start, second rounding two turns, and he had trouble soon after the break. He’s had five weeks since that good-figure effort to recover, has worked purposefully, and his pedigree indicates that distance racing is his game. Norberto Arroyo Jr. takes the re-ride.
Holidaze looks extremely well meant. Reuniting with Ramon Dominguez, aboard for a strong but stretch-troubled third two starts back, he’s trying a route for the first time. As a son of Harlan’s Holiday, that shouldn’t be a problem, especially at this trip. His figures have improved over this surface since returning from a layup and the barn is especially good in this scenario. Note that the Pletcher outfit is 30% effective when stretching out off consecutive sprints and 32% with third-time starts off a layoff. Strong stats, those.
Globalization impressed as a promising juvenile last fall. When last seen he was beaten off in the Juvenile but he had been competitive with Tale of Akati and War Pass in his first two lifetime starts. Those colts need no introduction, obviously, and this colt looked good breaking his maiden by open lengths when stretched to a mile. He comes off a bullet work at Palm Meadows and ships north in what might be a prep for the Gotham later on. But we think he’s worth trying to beat in his return at a short price.
Taking Mint Lane to win at 5-2 or greater and keying him in exactas first and second with his two main rivals here.
Running Totals: (173) 62-37-19. Total Dollar Return: $387.20 [win selections only]
Ed. Note: In the event of a NYRA suspension of racing beginning Feb. 14, the feature race analysis will shift to Gulfstream Park in the interim.
Written by John Pricci
Saturday, February 09, 2008
Speed of the Speed Is Always Dangerous
Today’s featured Correction of filly sprinters has drawn a small field long on early speed. Not very interesting, it appears a two-horse affair between Mulligatawny and Beau Dare.
It appears Steve Asmussen doesn’t only win at the Fair Grounds. Mulligatawny is on a four race win streak, the two most recent victories over this track over which she seems to have a preference. The winter track is the scene of her two best performance figures and last out earned a new pace top, indicating there might be more in the tank. She looms the speed of the speed here.
Beau Dare’s last was a powerful effort over the surface for Bruce Levine, the meet’s second leading trainer and clicking on all cylinders most recently. She, too earned a new pace top in her last and with fast back-figures in tow she figures to keep going well. Following her last, she was wisely freshened six weeks by Levine. The incentive to find value here lies in the fact likely second choice Rite Moment is eligible to regress of a recent double-top effort and returning on short rest, a particularly tough scenario for fillies.
Taking Mulligatawny to win, no price restrictions, and an exacta box with Beau Dare.
Running Totals: (172) 62-37-19. Total Dollar Return: $387.20 [win selections only]
DUE TO SCHEDULING CONFLICTS, THERE WILL BE NO SELECTIONS FOR SUNDAY. FEATURE RACE ANALYSIS WILL RESUME ON WEDNESDAY
Written by John Pricci
Friday, February 08, 2008
Laurel Shipper Can Weather the Storm
Today’s feature is a preliminary allowances for state-bred three-year-old fillies going a mile and it’s an interesting heat. We’ll take a close look at three, from the inside, out: Doodlin (8-1) , Crane Bay (9-5) and Weathered (5-1).
Doodlin showed remarkable improvement in her second start for Guadalupe Preciado. While she beat lowly maiden claimers at Philadelphia Park, she did so by running off the screen. She completely dominated her 10 rivals in that two-turner and could easily win this with a repeat of that effort.
Crane Bay is a deserving favorite. She’s earned good performance figures in all three career starts and really moved forward going two turns on this surface last out, distributing her energy a bit more efficiently. She could not be in better hands with Team Albertrani/Garcia. The problem for her will be repeating that effort while returning on relatively short rest.
Weathered in very interesting. After working at Suffolk Downs for most of late-2007, she shipped to Laurel to make her debut in an open $40,000 maiden claimer and won by open lengths, earning a competitive figure at 7 furlongs. Now she shows up in New York for her state-bred debut sporting a two-sided pedigree for a barn that’s 30 percent first time going long? Too many coincidences for me.
Taking Weathered to win at 5-1 or greater and keying her in all trifecta money positions with the two aforementioned fillies plus the speedy Anlyn.
Running Totals: (172) 62-37-18. Total Dollar Return: $387.20 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci