Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis
Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks
. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.
In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line"
column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line"
Friday, June 25, 2010
Affirmatif? That’s Affirmative
An interesting feature at Belmont Park, a non-winners of 3-optional claiming allowances for older horses sprinting six furlongs on the turf. Four or five of the eight horses wouldn’t surprise here but the most probable winner is the Todd Pletcher-trained Affirmatif (5-2).
In his last start at Monmouth he was in with a chance but was forced to steady between horses while sprinting 5-½ on the turf. When your horse encounters trouble in midstretch in such a short turf sprint, fuhgedaboudit!
Stretching out a sixteenth with a probable pace advantage from an outside post, this four-year-old’s ability to kick on will suit today’s task very well. With only nine career starts at 4, there obviously have been issues. But he has immense ability, switches to the resurgent Javier Castellano and comes from a live race.
Taking Affirmatif to win at 9-5 or greater and keying him first and second in trifectas with Congor Bay (3-1) making his second start and third off a layup for Tom Albertrani, Our Friend Harvey (9-2), from the same race as the choice and also with trouble, course loving Karakorum Electra (6-1) and price shot Yield Bogey (15-1), who’s had his moments on the this course.
Running Totals: (676) 217-136-94 Total Dollar Return: $1,525.20 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Thursday, June 24, 2010
From Indiana Downs to Churchill Winner’s Circle
Since no race could possibly qualify as a feature event, we’re leaving town again, this time to Churchill Downs for a preliminary allowances on the turf at 5 furlongs for fillies 3-year-olds and up.
On performance figures, and the nature of turf sprints, this field is fairly closely matched, making it impossible to accept short odds no matter what the virtues of a particular contender.
One of four fillies we considered closely is Kyriana (10-1), who figures are not only competitive but figures to offer bettable odds since her last race was at Indiana Downs, making it likely for her to fall between the parimutuel cracks.
There very little not to like. Overcoming a very slow pace and off ground to win her debut at one mile, her connections showed confidence running her back at the allowance level following that claiming debut but that race was washed off the grass.
After a 2-½ month break she reappeared in Indiana sprinting and acquitted her self well, sitting 4 lengths off a stronger, sprint pace and finished well for the place but subsequently was placed third after stretch interference. The switch to strong finishing apprentice Freddie Lenclud should help the filly’s chances.
Taking Kyriana to win at 6-1 or greater and keying her first and second in exactas with the very quick Barton Springs (3-1), making her turf debut with a suitable pedigree, and turf-sprint proven Greek Girl (4-1).
Running Totals: (675) 216-136-94 Total Dollar Return: $1,497.60 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Wednesday, June 23, 2010
Price Play at Presque Isle
Choosing to add to our handicapping education in the realization that horses last racing at Presque Isle Downs have a very high success rate when shipping elsewhere, were going back to the western Pennsylvania track for today’s featured analysis. Plus, given the later post times, more readers have an opportunity to possible involve themselves in some way.
Besides, I’ve just got to throw deep today as El Profeta (8-1) simply has too many angles to ignore and, while his performance figures don’t match up with some of the faster members of this preliminary allowance-optional claiming group, the line is positive and he appears to be heading in the right direction.
For openers, trainer Adolfo Exposito has made a living on the road, winning at a profitable 29 percent rate. What’s more is that El Profeta is shipping back to a surface over which he’s 5-for-6 in the money, including two victories.
And where many of his rivals lack experience or pedigree for today’s nine furlongs, he finished second in his only start at this trip. The one with the best record, favorite Rises the Phoenix, has no experience on synthetics.
This barn’s been hot the last few months, it has had success with jockey Luis Gonzalez and the five year old gelding is a war horse, winning 10 of his 49 lifetime starts. Today’s class rise should insure bettable odds.
Taking El Profeta to win and place at early odds of 8-1 or greater.
Running Totals: (674) 215-136-94 Total Dollar Return: $1,491.00 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci