Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis

Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.

In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line" column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line" banner.

Saturday, June 26, 2010

Biofuel Provides Value in Five Filly Mother Goose

You'll note that three of the five entrants in today's Grade 1 Mother Goose at Belmont Park are trained by Todd Pletcher. Heading this uncoupled tandem is Devil May Care, the filly last seen in the Kentucky Derby. She's a worthy favorite (6-5) given those company lines, her most impressive three-year-old debut score in the Bonnie Miss, and her G1 winner over this surface at 2. But we're going for the gusto with Canadian shipper Biofuel, making her first start on God's dirt.

When it comes to company lines, however, she has nothing to apologize for. She was a G3 winner at 2, beating Bay To Bay comfortably, that filly being the 5-2 early line favorite for today's Boiling Springs at Monmouth Park. She finished her season finishing fourth, beaten 1-1/2 lengths, in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile after coming from the clouds after significant troubles at the start. This year, she's 2-for-2 and has been pointed carefully to this. It won't be easy, but the reward should be commensurate with the risk.

Taking Biofuel to win at 6-1 or greater and keying her in multiples with the Pletcher fillies; Devil May Care, the improving Ailalea (3-1) and the late developing speedster, Katy Now (8-1), an extra ticket with the favorite.

Running Totals: (677) 217-137-94 Total Dollar Return: $1,525.20 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


Friday, June 25, 2010

Affirmatif? That’s Affirmative

An interesting feature at Belmont Park, a non-winners of 3-optional claiming allowances for older horses sprinting six furlongs on the turf. Four or five of the eight horses wouldn’t surprise here but the most probable winner is the Todd Pletcher-trained Affirmatif (5-2).

In his last start at Monmouth he was in with a chance but was forced to steady between horses while sprinting 5-½ on the turf. When your horse encounters trouble in midstretch in such a short turf sprint, fuhgedaboudit!

Stretching out a sixteenth with a probable pace advantage from an outside post, this four-year-old’s ability to kick on will suit today’s task very well. With only nine career starts at 4, there obviously have been issues. But he has immense ability, switches to the resurgent Javier Castellano and comes from a live race.

Taking Affirmatif to win at 9-5 or greater and keying him first and second in trifectas with Congor Bay (3-1) making his second start and third off a layup for Tom Albertrani, Our Friend Harvey (9-2), from the same race as the choice and also with trouble, course loving Karakorum Electra (6-1) and price shot Yield Bogey (15-1), who’s had his moments on the this course.

Running Totals: (676) 217-136-94 Total Dollar Return: $1,525.20 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


Thursday, June 24, 2010

From Indiana Downs to Churchill Winner’s Circle

Since no race could possibly qualify as a feature event, we’re leaving town again, this time to Churchill Downs for a preliminary allowances on the turf at 5 furlongs for fillies 3-year-olds and up.

On performance figures, and the nature of turf sprints, this field is fairly closely matched, making it impossible to accept short odds no matter what the virtues of a particular contender.

One of four fillies we considered closely is Kyriana (10-1), who figures are not only competitive but figures to offer bettable odds since her last race was at Indiana Downs, making it likely for her to fall between the parimutuel cracks.

There very little not to like. Overcoming a very slow pace and off ground to win her debut at one mile, her connections showed confidence running her back at the allowance level following that claiming debut but that race was washed off the grass.

After a 2-½ month break she reappeared in Indiana sprinting and acquitted her self well, sitting 4 lengths off a stronger, sprint pace and finished well for the place but subsequently was placed third after stretch interference. The switch to strong finishing apprentice Freddie Lenclud should help the filly’s chances.

Taking Kyriana to win at 6-1 or greater and keying her first and second in exactas with the very quick Barton Springs (3-1), making her turf debut with a suitable pedigree, and turf-sprint proven Greek Girl (4-1).

Running Totals: (675) 216-136-94 Total Dollar Return: $1,497.60 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


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