Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis
Whenever his daily work schedule permits, HorseRaceInsider executive editor John Pricci will analyze that day's feature race from a major thoroughbred-racing jurisdiction.
Tuesday, June 29, 2010
Want a Hot Horse? Try A Little Warm
You might not make a fortune betting on the most probable winner of today’s secondary allowances-optional claimer for three-year-olds and up in a Delaware Park mile and a sixteenth. Of course, the multiple pools could help in that regard if the fates are kind.
Clearly, A Little Warm (3-2), which it will be in the Delaware Valley this afternoon is the one they all must beat. When last seen, the Tony Dutrow trainee was setting the pace and holding gamely for second behind Mission Impazible in the Louisiana Derby, a race that was key, producing three next out winners.
And the thing about the effort was that it was his two turn debut and he fell out on the lead, setting the pace for the first time in his life. Many horses will not handle that kind of adversity but this colt seemed to thrive.
A Little Warm hasn’t started in three months but the workline indicates he didn’t miss too much training. Nicely positioned inside with a versatile style, he attracts Johnny Velazquez, shipping down from New York on a normal dark day. I’ll take that as a positive sign.
Contemporary Miner’s Reserve (4-1) is a high quality speedster breaking from the rail for Nick Zito and Jeremy Rose. However, he might be coming back a little quickly off an enervating effort.
Taking A Little Warm to win, no price restrictions, and keying him first and second with Miner’s Reward, Delaware River (15-1), an old pro recently claimed into a 38 percent barn with first-off-claim runners and owning 10 wins at the distance, and Strikewhileitshot (8-1), from the live barn of Michael Matz and a very willing third behind talented Laos Deo in his recent four year old debut, taking an extra exacta ticket with the latter.
Running Totals: (678) 217-137-95 Total Dollar Return: $1,525.20 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Saturday, June 26, 2010
Biofuel Provides Value in Five Filly Mother Goose
You'll note that three of the five entrants in today's Grade 1 Mother Goose at Belmont Park are trained by Todd Pletcher. Heading this uncoupled tandem is Devil May Care, the filly last seen in the Kentucky Derby. She's a worthy favorite (6-5) given those company lines, her most impressive three-year-old debut score in the Bonnie Miss, and her G1 winner over this surface at 2. But we're going for the gusto with Canadian shipper Biofuel, making her first start on God's dirt.
When it comes to company lines, however, she has nothing to apologize for. She was a G3 winner at 2, beating Bay To Bay comfortably, that filly being the 5-2 early line favorite for today's Boiling Springs at Monmouth Park. She finished her season finishing fourth, beaten 1-1/2 lengths, in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile after coming from the clouds after significant troubles at the start. This year, she's 2-for-2 and has been pointed carefully to this. It won't be easy, but the reward should be commensurate with the risk.
Taking Biofuel to win at 6-1 or greater and keying her in multiples with the Pletcher fillies; Devil May Care, the improving Ailalea (3-1) and the late developing speedster, Katy Now (8-1), an extra ticket with the favorite.
Running Totals: (677) 217-137-94 Total Dollar Return: $1,525.20 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Friday, June 25, 2010
Affirmatif? That’s Affirmative
An interesting feature at Belmont Park, a non-winners of 3-optional claiming allowances for older horses sprinting six furlongs on the turf. Four or five of the eight horses wouldn’t surprise here but the most probable winner is the Todd Pletcher-trained Affirmatif (5-2).
In his last start at Monmouth he was in with a chance but was forced to steady between horses while sprinting 5-½ on the turf. When your horse encounters trouble in midstretch in such a short turf sprint, fuhgedaboudit!
Stretching out a sixteenth with a probable pace advantage from an outside post, this four-year-old’s ability to kick on will suit today’s task very well. With only nine career starts at 4, there obviously have been issues. But he has immense ability, switches to the resurgent Javier Castellano and comes from a live race.
Taking Affirmatif to win at 9-5 or greater and keying him first and second in trifectas with Congor Bay (3-1) making his second start and third off a layup for Tom Albertrani, Our Friend Harvey (9-2), from the same race as the choice and also with trouble, course loving Karakorum Electra (6-1) and price shot Yield Bogey (15-1), who’s had his moments on the this course.
Running Totals: (676) 217-136-94 Total Dollar Return: $1,525.20 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci