Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis
Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks
. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.
In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line"
column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line"
Friday, November 21, 2008
Getting the Impression Shug Will Take NYRA Feature
If performance figures are the measure, and they are, five of these horses would fit neatly under one blanket in today’s featured seventh race, a secondary allowances/optional claimer for fillies and mares going a mile and a sixteenth on what figures to be “good” going.
Those having better than a puncher’s chance in here are the first three favorites: Shake The Moon (5-2), According To Plan (7-2) and Impressionism (4-1).
Shake The Moon raced one-paced while making her U. S. debut in a G3 Marathon on this course three weeks ago now goes first time for Chris Clement and also getting Lasix for the first time. Her figures are steady, highly competitive and moving forward incrementally, a positive sign. She draws the fence with Jose Lezcano on the re-ride.
Flibberjibit, an exotics contender, is attempting to win her sixth straight, her fourth since Oct. 5, while taking another step up. She’s 3-for-3 at this trip and 1-for-1 on this course. The problem is she’s been performing at a high level for such a long time and seems due for a dull performance. But that’s just a guess.
According To Plan is one of the fastest fillies in here, comes up to the added distance nicely off graduating distances with good, five-week- spacing. Her pedigree says no worries vis a vis the longer trip but she does have the look of a sprinter. Another guess.
Always For Love, another exotics filler, ships in sharp with good figure for longtime ship-in ace Guadalupe Preciado, who’s bringing along regular rider Angel Arroyo. She hits hard, has been laudably consistent and could prove a bargain if held at double-digit odds. Given the company and her outside draw, you’d want somewhere north of 10-1.
Impressionism seems the most likely suspect. A late developing four-year-old filly, she’s been improving incrementally for Shug McGaughey, has tactical speed and kick, assuring a good trip here despite her wide draw. Johnny Velazquez on the re-ride should put her in a position to win right from the jump. Trips, always the difference on turf, is particularly applicable in open races like this.
Taking Impressionism to win at 4-1 or greater, keying her in exactas with Shake The Moon and According To Plan, adding Flibberjibit, Always For Love and Mpensi to the trifecta mix.
Running Totals: (314) 95-64-42. Total Dollar Return: $650.20 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Thursday, November 20, 2008
There’s No Qualifier; Relatively Is Ready
Interesting feature as NYRA will try to stay on the grass for this preliminary allowances for two-year-olds going a mile and a sixteenths. As you might expect, many variables to weigh here. However, there is one colt with a decided experience edge over many of today’s rivals that has had his hooves held to the fire in strong company.
Relatively Ready has excellent form. He broke his maiden on turf in his first grass start at Saratoga, going two turns at this distance on off ground, the same conditions he will encounter today. Following that came a game third in the Grade 3 Pilgrim on yielding turf, then was stoutly restrained early while racing on that carpet of a Santa Anita grass course in the Juvenile Turf.
Despite that tough circumstance and while racing against better European stock that finished 1-2, he beat more than half the field and was beaten only five lengths for all of it after a strong late, while rally going shorter while the Europeans received easier inside trips, for the most part. Today, he draws inside with switch to stable turf rider, Johnny Velazquez.
But this is no walkover. Into My Soul broke his turf maiden at first asking then placed gamely in a Meadowlands stakes after being acquired by the IEAH group. Trainer Rick Dutrow is adding blinkers here, a move that’s been 21 percent effective.
Pegasus Tommy D. broke his maiden at first turf asking as well on good ground then lost all chance in his subsequent start, racing wide behind Into My Soul throughout in that same race on yielding ground. It was a difficult circumstance for both.
While I’d like to see another run from the Kiaran McLaughlin-trained Winthrop House, he was also a maiden turf breaker at first asking. What makes it a difficult read is the fact it came on firm Belmont turf going seven furlongs. But getting the trip in 1:21 2/5 in a visually impressive effort and retaining Alan Garcia certainly makes him an interesting prospect. But we’ll go with the devil we know.
Taking Relative Ready to win at 5-2 or greater and keying him first and second in exactas and trifectas with his rivals here.
Running Totals: (313) 95-64-42. Total Dollar Return: $650.20 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
Taking Longer Uncoupled Mate in Open Race a Sound Strategy
Today’s Four Bases Stakes for horses that have not won a stakes at a mile on turf this year might actually get to be run on the grass with good weather in the New York area recently--although snow showers were predicted for Tuesday.
Meanwhile, it appears that Christophe Clement has this surrounded with a strong uncoupled entry of Nergal (7-2) and Operation Red Dawn (3-1). His main contenders appear to be Al Basha (6-1) and Pick Six (6-1).
Nergal is a late developing five-year-old gelding whose performance figures have been forging forward incrementally, indicating further development is possible. He draws the fence, attracts Ramon Dominguez, and appears to class up nicely given his recent third in the Grade 3 Cliff Hanger at the Meadowlands. The 1-1/16th miles suits nicely.
Operation Red Dawn is the logical favorite and most probable winner. He has been highly competitive in recent graded stakes, including a very game third despite a wide trip over soft ground in the G2 Kelso Handicap. But it’s his versatility, an ability to act over any footing, that suits him very well here and does reuniting with Alan Garcia, aboard for this gelding’s most recent victory.
Al Basha has disappointed often this season but it’s not as if the 4-year-old hasn’t raced well on most occasions. His figures are competitive and consistent and the switch to Rajiv Maragh augurs well considering the success he’s enjoyed riding for Angel Penna Jr. this season. Interesting to note, too, that Penna is 38 percent profitable in these non-graded stakes events.
Pick Six, meanwhile, is very sharp, improving with competitive figures and has been going well recently with today’s partner Cornelio Velasquez. He must prove, however, whether he’s as effective at today’s trip as he is going a bit shorter.
We’ll opt for whatever value is offered on Nergal to win at 7-2 or greater, keying him first and second in exactas with Operation Red Dawn and Al Basha--extra ticket with the former--and in trifectas as well, adding Pick Six, and the fast strong-working absentee, Buddy's Humor (8-1), to that mix.
Running Totals: (312) 95-64-41. Total Dollar Return: $650.20 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci