Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis
Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks
. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.
In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line"
column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line"
Thursday, December 04, 2008
An Attractive Play
Today’s feature is fairly inscrutable, unless you adhere blindly to performance figures. The six furlong sprint for preliminary allowance/optional claiming two-year-olds features one of the fast maiden breakers of the juvenile season, Pop Artist (3-1).
But there are questions: For one, why did this $275 yearling debut for $100,000 for the powerful Darley Stable? Further, he was reluctant to load into the gate. Will that be the case again vs. stiffer company, and why no gate work coming into this, although hopefully he was schooled.
Trainer Tom Albertrani in any case gave him 54 days of recovery time to bring his back and he has worked steadily since debut. The fact that none were of the bullet variety suggest he might be more than simply a precocious speed-crazy youngster. Should he run back to his debut, the competition is racing for minor honors.
Other horses of major interest are Jess Not Jesse (8-1), Taqarub (5-1) , Fellow Crasher (4-1) and Prince Charming (9-2).
Taqarub was another impressive maiden breaker in fast time, albeit not as fast as Pop Artist, but it was a visually impressive win over tougher rivals.
Jess Not Jesse is interesting because he will offer value at 8-1 or more. But his first two races were on turf, including a Canadian G3, then made his dirt debut showing good early speed--a change of pace effort--before finishing third. Ramon Dominguez, winning everything in sight recently, takes the ride.
Fellow Crasher ships in with experience and fast figures. The problem is knowing how to translate his good 5-½ furlong efforts into six furlongs here. But the drop into a claimer for the first time augurs well, as Tony Dutrow is a profitable 27 percent with that angle.
Prince Charming was ambitiously placed behind Back Water Edison in the G3 Nashua Stakes, getting bogged down on the inside in that mile contest. But he switches outside here, enjoys a pace edge with his tactical speed and kick, benefits from a switch to an outside position while reuniting with Javier Castellano. His half-mile breeze in :48 on 11/26 was 14th fastest of 170 two-year-olds to work out that week.
Taking Prince Charming to win at 4-1 or greater, keying him first and second in exactas with Pop Artist and Fellow Crasher, and in trifecta and superfecta money positions with all horses here, plus sharp-working price shot Fotographia (15-1).
Running Totals: (322) 97-66-44. Total Dollar Return: $680.80 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Wednesday, December 03, 2008
Ravel Hits a Winning Note
An interesting way to begin the winter track season, with the listed Coyote Lakes Stakes for older horses at 13 furlongs.
Of course, tactics and trips will dictate the outcome but suffice it to know that three horses have an excellent chance to win the first feature on the inner track: Lorrcan, Delosvientos and Ravel.
On performance figures, it would be Grade 2 winner Delosvientos (7-5) with no other competitor close. A proven classy marathoner, his early speed always makes him formidable in spots like these. Two-for-two beneath Eibar Coa, trainer Giuseppe Iadisernia is 34 percent with horses seeking repeat wins and he trained steadily for this since October. The one concern is that he appears better in his second start following a layup.
Ravel (3-1), meanwhile, is as classy. A G3 winner who has tasted G1 company, his career has disappointed his high profile connections but this looks like the proper spot and will vie for favoritism with Delosvientos. With a moderate pace that promises to be contested, however, Ravel fits the race shape well and few riders can match Johnny Velazquez’s positional skills. He’s never been the distance but has an extremely long pedigree.
What Lorrcan (8-1) apparently lacks in class he makes up for in sharpness, position, tactical speed and kick. He’s won at 12 furlongs, comes up to today’s route nicely and goes very well for Jeffrey Sanchez, a dual winner on the colt. Trainer Jimmy Ferraro is profitable with stakes runners at the non-graded level and the late developer really has come to hand in his 4-year-old season.
But we'll err on the side of a potential trip a nd take Ravel at 5-2 or greater and key him first and second in exactas and trifectas with his rivals here.
Running Totals: (321) 97-66-44. Total Dollar Return: $680.80 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Sunday, November 30, 2008
Nothing Could Be Finah…
The final stakes of the Aqueduct main track season is the Montauk at nine furlongs for state-bred fillies and mares looks like it will be a pretty formful affair among My Dinah (5-2), Point Me To It (3-1) and Here Comes Rita (8-1).
My Dinah is marching forward incrementally and should continue to go well here. While she prefers a target, she might hold a pace edge in this two-turner and certainly has enough pedigree for the added ground, as most John Hettinger-bred horses do. Regular rider Jose Espinosa rides her back for Kathleen Feron.
Point Me To It has improved off the recent Gary Contessa claim and this might be the spot he had in mind when he haltered her on October 9. While the top half of the pedigree is challenged in the routing department, Contessa is profitable when he goes long off two prior sprints. The rail and tactical speed at this trip won’t hurt.
If only Here Comes Rita were a bit quicker on performance figures and was better positioned than the outside slip at this distance. The good news, however, is that she has come into her own as she’s won three of her last four, is bred both sides for the distance and is poised to make a forward move. That and her early line odds.
But we’re taking My Dinah to win, no price restrictions, and keying her first and second in exactas and trifectas with her rivals here.
Running Totals: (320) 97-66-43. Total Dollar Return: $680.80 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci