Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis
Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks
. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.
In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line"
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Saturday, September 22, 2007
Pair of Three-Year-Olds in Classic Preps
Another week closer to the Breeders’ Cup World Championships. And another important prep weekend.
A pair of three-year-olds will be trying to advance to the Classic at tracks 1,500 miles away from each other. Both Any Given Saturday, in the Grade 2 Brooklyn Handicap at Belmont Park, and Grasshopper, entered in the Grade 2 Super Derby at Louisiana Downs, will be odds-on to win their preps.
Each will be a very tough out.
Todd Pletcher announced a month ago that he would run in the Brooklyn, and both the size of the field and level of competition are testimony to the level of respect his rivals have for Any Given Saturday.
And the state of the older horse division is apparently so sorry these days that only two of “Saturday’s” four rivals are older horses. Of them, the Pletcher colt has his fellow three-year-olds to beat.
As we wrote in our analysis, Any Given Saturday is sharp, fresh and simply too fast for this group. His tactical speed will allow Garrett Gomez to place him wherever he wishes. He’ll be ready when Sightseeing comes alive at headstretch.
Grasshopper has come a very long way this summer, which is both the good and bad news. He has raised his game considerably, so high, in fact that, on performance figures, none of his nine rivals are within six lengths if all nine rivals run their ‘A’ race.
It’s unlikely that Grasshopper can duplicate his excellent placing in Street Sense’s Travers. The dynamics here; from field size, to distance, to surface, to post position, are altogether different. But at this level, class tells. Grasshopper’s ‘B’ race likely will be good enough.
But that’s not the purpose of this drill. The purpose is to take another step forward, gain more experience, more seasoning, and get to the Jersey Shore with gas left in the equine tank.
If he gets beat, you could bet that trainer Neil Howard will be past the point of going ballistic.
You can’t say you haven’t been warned.
Written by John Pricci
Just when the going has gotten tough in the last fortnight, along comes Any Given Saturday, 2-5 to stop the bleeding in the Grade 2 Brooklyn Handicap at nine furlongs. The Todd Pletcher three-year-old has come to hand this summer and is in the conversation when it comes to viable Breeders’ Cup Classic contenders. He’s sharp, he’s fresh, and he’s much faster than the group. His high cruising speed will allow Garrett Gomez to do whatever he wants.
As the most probable winner, he’s unbettable. But we will make a cold exacta that will count as a win play in the dollar return totals. Sightseeing is much, much better than he showed in the Travers. Despite training better than he ever had in his life, he was inexplicably dull. Now he’s back at his favorite distance, on his favorite surface where he’s never finished out of the money in three starts, winning two. Hot riding Javier Castellano replaces the injured Edgar Prado.
Running Total: (107) 39-26-11. Dollar Return: $227.30 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Friday, September 21, 2007
Get Down on Down in Belmont Feature
Today’s feature is another interesting turf event, this one carded for preliminary allowance fillies, three-year-olds and up, at 1-1/16 miles on the Widener turf. We believe it comes down to two rivals, favorite Down (3-1) and outsider Wild Hoots (8-1).
The barn appears to be very up on Down. After breaking her maiden on this course in a quickly run special-weights at 7 furlongs, her next start came at the same distance on dirt--the Grade 1 Test Stakes. Clearly that was too ambitious, especially given the lack of seasoning.
Bobby Frankel entered her back on turf last time out and she returned with a good effort, finishing gamely late despite having no running room inside and off slow fractions. She figures to get a more favorable set up here, adds blinkers, and switches to a more aggressive Cornelio Velasquez.
Wild Hoots is interesting. After making a promising debut, she was hindered off a very slow pace last time out, compromising her late kick. Still, she mid-moved into the pace, opened a clear advantage and held well for a game victory. Given added maturity off a recent freshening, she figures to move forward for extremely live connections, Team McLaughlin/Garcia. She figures to be overlooked in the wagering.
On occasion when conditions demand, we suggest betting two horses. That’s the case here, with the main wager counting as a play in the running totals, with the saver wager recorded as a half-play. Taking most probable winner Down to win at 2-1 or greater, for $2, and Wild Hoots to win for $1, no price restriction. Also a two-horse exacta box.
Running Totals: (106) 39-26-11. Dollar Return: $227.30 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci