Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis

Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.

In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line" column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line" banner.

Sunday, May 03, 2009

Another Helping, If You Please

The Bouwerie Stakes for New York-bred fillies at seven furlongs is always an interesting race featuring some fillies are generally wind up the best of their state-bred class.

Today’s favorite obviously is What A Pear (2-1), who was undefeated in New York before shipping to Keeneland for the Ashland; too much competition, not enough dirt. But she certainly belongs here, and will be a tough out.

But we’re going for the gusto with the improving More Oats Please (10-1), half of the uncoupled Tom Bush entry and on a good performance line.

Her early speed keeps getting better and she’s learning, too, if two recent pace tops followed by a reversal on the Equiform scale are the measure--and they are.

She has conditioning turning back off a mile at Aqueduct, a versatile style--speed or stalk--and gets a switch to Eibar Coa, who nicely positioned outside at this distance.

Taking More Oats Please to win at 8-1 or greater and an exacta box with What A Pear.

Running Totals: (418) 128-87-55 Total Dollar Return: $872.80 [win selections only]

NOTE: We included One Caroline as a loss even though the play was predicated on the presence of Zenyatta to make the price worthwhile. With the scratch, however, and now with One Caroline the odds on choice, we didn’t play. But on the record is on the record. Next time, however, now that you’re forewarned, I’m taking a mulligan.

What? You’ve got a problem with that?

Written by John Pricci


Friday, May 01, 2009

Rachel Alexandra Key to Exotic Payoffs

There is not about taking a base on balls with Rachel Alexandra (3-5) to win the storied G1 Kentucky Oaks. It’s about making money in the exotic pools as well as the Oaks-Derby Double.

Whoever you like in the Kentucky Derby--our Derby betting strategy to be published here Saturday from 1:01 AM forward--by using Rachel Alexandra to get you alive, that strategy could increase the odds on your Derby selection(s) by two points or even higher.

On performance figures, Rachel’s main rival is Justwhistlindixie (5-2). Beyond that, her victories have been visually impressive, most especially her latest at Gulfstream Park. Granted, however, that no three-year-old has been as visually impressive as Rachel Alexandra has been this year--and that includes the boys.

But Gabby’s Golden Girl (10-1) is sitting on a big one as well. Her performance figures have been improving incrementally and never has taken a backward step in her career. She’s been working lights out for Bob Baffert at Churchill and can easily make a multiple-pool ticket worth cashing.

Taking Rachel Alexandra to win, no price restrictions, and taking her on top only in exactas and trifectas with her two main rivals here, adding Flying Spur (8-1) to the trifecta mix.

Bonus Selection: Betting One Caroline to win the G2 Louisville Stakes (7th race) at 5-2 or greater

Running Totals: (416) 127-87-55 Total Dollar Return: $870.20 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


Thursday, April 30, 2009

Recent Maker Claim Future Prospect’s Are Bright

Not an inspiring feature at Belmont Park today, a state-bred starter allowances that “have started for a claiming price.” Any claiming price. As such, classifying this group can lead to only one conclusion: Be Bullish (2-1) is the best horse. And since he’s reuniting with Eibar Coa, who’s 2-for-2 on the Schwartz trainee, looms a logical favorite and most probable winner.

But the value lies elsewhere and it appears Future Prospect (7-2) has the most upside. He’s improved since Michael Maker’s claim and broke through with a new lifetime best performance figure.

What’s significant is that it was an incremental move, not one prone to regression, and quite often geldings don‘t come into their own until five years of age, the case here. A winner of 2 of 3 starts at this distance, Maker’s a profitable 29 percent with his routers.

Taking Future Prospect to win at 3-1 or greater and an exacta box with Be Bullish.

Running Totals: (415) 126-87-55 Total Dollar Return: $862.80 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


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