Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis

Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.

In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line" column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line" banner.

Wednesday, September 30, 2009

There’s a Good Moon On the Rise

Today’s overnight feature, the Mr. Right, is interesting, a field of good horses in various stages of their form cycle. The three major players are Honour Devil (7-2), Rising Moon (3-1) and Coal Play (2-1).

Because of the presence of the speedy Mint Lane, it’s worth trying to beat Coal Play at a short price. Even if their riders slow the early pace down, they still are likely to entertain each other through this mile and a sixteenth.

Honour Devil, a tough-read albeit classy absentee from top connections, is also likely to show some freshness in his return from a long layup and the pole draw probably will force his rider’s hand early on, which can add to the pace mix.

Which leaves us with Rising Moon, who might not be as good as some of his rivals here but looks well intended and suit’s the race shape well. The last time this horse went turf to dirt, it resulted in a victory.

That’s the tack here for a barn showing a huge ROI in this surface-switch scenario. His tactical speed helps, as does the presence of Ramon Dominguez, and the price should be fair.

Taking Rising Moon to win at 3-1 or greater, keying him first and second in trifectas with his rivals here.

Running Totals: (513) 152-105-72 Total Dollar Return: $1,031.20 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


Sunday, September 27, 2009

This New York-Bred’s a Real Trooper

A pair of juvenile stakes for New York-breds, one for the girls, one for the boys. Today, it’s gentlemen first. In the Bertram Bongard at 7 furlongs, it’s clear that early line favorite One Note Samba (9-5) will be the post time choice as well, and why not?

The fastest horse by definition, given his maiden score two back, Todd Pletcher gave him a chance to prove he was worthy of open rivals. The G1 Hopeful group proved much too salty, and after an early hot-paced duel, he tired. It’s back to reality here and his last should have toughened him sufficiently.

But in the George Weaver-trained City Trooper (3-1), we have a colt that’s almost as fast on performance figures, also has three races worth of experience, but it’s his proven ability to handle a wet track and overcome adversity that appeals most.

After showing good early speed in his debut, he came from well off the pace to finish second despite a tough trip in his second start, then proved that no fluke with a troubled-trip score to break his maiden on a wet Saratoga track last out. There appears to be sufficient early pace pressure to harass the favorite here.

Taking City Trooper to win and place at 3-1 or greater.

Running Totals: (512) 152-105-71 Total Dollar Return: $1,031.20 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


Saturday, September 26, 2009

Thunders Dove Down the Road

Divining the winner of today’s G2 Gallant Bloom Handicap at 6-½ furlongs largely depends on your read of Indian Blessing (8-5). Is she the same filly as the one we saw BEFORE she went to Dubai? We think not and must go against--even if she absolutely LOVES Belmont Park.

The hot, “now” horse is Sara Louise (7-5), who at 2 was keeping company and being competitive with a filly named Rachel Alexandra.

Her return to the races at Saratoga was just so impressive, and Saeed bin Suroor is 40% profitable in second-off-the-layoff scenarios. And did I mention she’s very fast?

But we need to take the value offered with Thunders Dove (6-1), who also made an impressive season’s debut at Saratoga.

Her work pattern since indicates improvement forthcoming from the effort, her figures are fairly competitive, she owns excellent position, picks up Rajiv Maragh and is getting seven pounds from Indian Blessing. So, we’re going for the gusto.

Taking Thunders Dove to win at 6-1 or greater, key boxing her first and second in trifectas with her two rivals here, and an exacta box with Sara Louise.

Running Totals: (511) 152-105-71 Total Dollar Return: $1,031.20 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


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