Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis

Whenever his daily work schedule permits, HorseRaceInsider executive editor John Pricci will analyze that day's feature race from a major thoroughbred-racing jurisdiction.

Friday, July 30, 2010

Fortune Shines On Jerkens’ FIlly

To the tune of Horse With No Name: Well I’ve looked through the program for a race with a name, it felt good to get out of some pain… It’s been a tough short week. And now, today’s seventh race, the Fleet Indien overnight sprint stakes, qualifies as a feature. And it’s a skull buster, too.

There’s some talent in the group but it’s hard to know just where they are. Thought about waking up Weathered, “arguably the best horse,” who hasn’t been the same mare since that Grade 2 at Laurel this winter. Sweet Lorena has excellent performance figures, but mainly on synthetics. Ed Barker has done super work with Meese Rocks but seven furlongs is uncharted territory on dirt.

So, we’ll take Shine Upon (5-1) to rebound to her best form. Jimmy Jerkens trainee is nowhere near as fast as most of her rivals here but she did win three straight to start her career and showed there is a little class about her. She appeared in need of her last and the race didn’t set up for her, a four horse field in which the winner was pretty dominant. She’s won going longer and Jerkens’ horses are running very well of late.

Taking Shine Upon to win at 3-1 or more, keying her first and second in exactas with the Mike Ferraro entry (either or both halves) and Weathered.

Running Totals: (693) 222-141-97 Total Dollar Return: $1,551.10 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


Thursday, July 29, 2010

Back to Spa Is Best Case Scenario

Choice of two features today--a couple of $70,000 overnighters--and we opted for the race which, despite the shorter field, offers a great opportunity for value.

Not that in today’s 4th race, the Lucy Scribner for fillies and mares sprinting 7 furlongs, doesn’t have a worthy favorite in Devil By Design (2-1), who was eliminated by a rough start in the G3 Bed o’ Roses but now returns to her winning overnight level.

Making her thirds start off a layoff for Team Mott/Desormeaux, the filly is 1-2 at the Spa and 3-4 at the distance.

An interesting filly Perfect for You (8-1), coming out of a fast-paced sprint and now stretches out to her best distance with a switch to Garrett Gomez. She’s 3-18 lifetime in her career--all at 7 furlongs.

But the price filly that’s most intriguing here is Worstcasescenario (12-1), returning to the scene of her career best victory, winning the G2 Adirondack by open lengths. She’s been toughened in graded stakes since but now finds a winning level, reuniting with Alan Garcia, who was aboard for both lifetime victories.

Taking Worstcasescenario to win at 6-1 or greater, keying her first and second in exactas with her main rivals here.

Running Totals: (692) 222-141-96 Total Dollar Return: $1,551.10 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


Tuesday, July 27, 2010

From Canada to Lake George

If this is not the best edition of the G2 Lake George ever run, it’s certainly in the conversation. It’s a very deep, very contentious field that might just be laden with future grass stars. We find four of these fillies extremely interesting:

House Of Grace (8-1), pointed toward this and a course winner; Neon Light (9-2), a Group-winning German invader from winning connections; Dynazapper (12-1), a recent tough-tripper now turning back to her best distance, and Bay To Bay (4-1), compromised by a slow pace at Monmouth and working brilliantly for a top ship-in barn.

While all have merit, Bay To Bay looms the most probable winner. As a Grade 3 winner with multiple placings at that level, she’s a proven commodity that keeps improving. She had little chance vs. a soft pace from a wide slip at Monmouth and now reunites with Robby Albarado, 1-for-1 aboard the filly.

Her :48 3/5 work, 15th fastest of 107 three-year-old workers that week at her Woodbine base, is set to roll for a barn that’s a profitable 30% effective with its shippers. There’s no shortage of speed in this matchup and she’ll be rolling late.

Taking Bay To Bay to win at 4-1 or greater and keying her first and second in the multiples with her three rivals listed above.

Running Totals: (691) 222-141-96 Total Dollar Return: $1,551.10 [win selections only] {Sunday and Monday selections were unavailable due to technical difficulties}

Written by John Pricci


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