Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis

Whenever his daily work schedule permits, HorseRaceInsider executive editor John Pricci will analyze that day's feature race from a major thoroughbred-racing jurisdiction.

Tuesday, April 06, 2010

Missbauer Regrets She Must Beat the Favorite Today

This one’s for Wendell because turf writers can’t live on stakes races alone. (Actually, that’s not true and neither is it because he deserves humoring. It’s because Philly Park is the only Equiform data to have arrived in my mailbox yesterday).

But the feature ninth route, fillies and mares, 3 & Up, starter allowances is quite contentious. We give four out of seven a chance. (It really was five but I was too embarrassed to admit it).

Octomon (3-1) is a strong contender. She’s not taken a step back on performance figures in four lifetime starts and goes for the Preciado barn, 29 percent with second-start-for-barn entrants. Syllogism, however is a worthy (2-1) favorite.

Claimed from O’Neill two back which qualified her for the $12,500 level, she was second and won in two starts since haltered and goes fro a barn that’s a profitable 27 percent with horses attempting repeats.

But it’s Missbauer (6-1) which provides the value here. The three-year-old filly has raced her way into top form and finally was stretched out to a route of ground, something for which she’s bred both sides of the pedigree.

Coming off a competitive-figure career best effort, she’s been given sufficient recovery time, has worked smartly, gets in with 107 pounds and actually defeated the favorite last time out.

Taking Missbauer to win at 9-2 or greater, keying her first and second in exactas with her rivals here. Trifecta players should add value laden Minor Issues (10-1) to their mix.

Running Totals: (624) 194-126-88 Total Dollar Return: $1,348.30 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


Saturday, April 03, 2010

Like a Hurricane

With a bevy of stakes to choose from, we’ll take the one that we believe gives us the best chance to beat the favorite ad be successful. And that would be in the Bay Shore on the Wood Memorial undercard.

Eightyfiveinafifty (4-5) has still has best speed figure earned this year sprinting no matter who’s figures who look at. Off that maiden win he was rushed into a two-turn stakes debut but bolted on the first turn and was eliminated; lucky that he didn’t sustain a serious injury.

Subsequently, he’s trained well and returns in a sprint, but it’s a 7-furlong graded sprint in which he has drawn the rail--no bargain at this trip. Yes, he picks up the great Ramon but his considerable speed notwithstanding, he’s got something to prove.

Not so Hurricane Ike (7-2). He might be 1-for-6 but comes off a series off fast sprints on the Pro Ride, beaten a neck in an overnight stakes that went in 1:08.8. Two of his defeats--including one at today’s distance in which he was beaten 2 ¾ in the G1 Del Mar Futurity--came when he lined up against Lookin At Lucky.

He worked rapidly at his West Coast base before shipping East, picks up Calvin Borel, and is nicely drawn in mid-pack. The G3 Bay Shore is the perfect spot.

Taking Hurricane Ike to win at 5-2 or greater and keying him first and second in trifectas with the favorite and price shots Noah’s Dreams (20-1) and Remand (15-1).

Running Totals: (623) 194-125-88 Total Dollar Return: $1,348.30 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


Friday, April 02, 2010

Castaneda, not the rider, the horse!

Today’s Aqueduct feature, a secondary allowances-optional claimer for state-breds three-year-olds and up is one of those sprints fraught with questions where you can make cases for half the field--not strong cases, but cases nonetheless.

But rather than guess, we’ll take the horse with the best recent race, a three-year-old that obviously still has upside, and one scratched out of tomorrow’s G2 open Bay Shore at 7 furlongs for a New York bred spot at three-quarters, the distance of his most recent win.

Castaneda (3-1) is the most likely winner, especially with a repeat of his most recent effort. Perhaps the money to be made, if any, will come in the multiple pools.

Taking sharp working Castaneda to win at 2-1 or greater and keying him first and second in multiple pools with Tellmefirst (20-1), Goodandacceptable (20-1) and Regal Prince (6-1).

Running Totals: (622) 193-125-88 Total Dollar Return: $1,344.60 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


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