Friday, June 07, 2013

Making the Most of Belmont 145

We're making two different plays. First, we're keying Orb to finish first or second in superfectas with Freedom Child (8-1), Revolutionary (9-2), Palace Malice (15-1) and Unlimited Budget (8-1) in all money positions, sprinkling Overanalyze(12-1), Giant Finish (30-1), Incognito (20-1), and Will Take Charge (20-1) to complete the play, third and fourth.

Also, we're making a win bet on Palace Malice at 12-1 or greater.

For the record, however, the running totals in the next FRA will reflect the results of a $2 win bet on Orb.

Number of Selections: 1331

Number of Win-Place-Show Finishers: 406-252-204

Amount Wagered: $2,662 [to win only]

Total Dollar Return on Investment: $2,789.20

Profit to Date: $127.20

Comments (7)

Fast Falcon to Take Flight in the Brooklyn

Unusual to see races with names run on a non-holiday Friday but today is an exception at Belmont Park with three such events; one an overnighter, the other two graded races including the G2 Brooklyn, forme third leg of the New York handicap triple series but now the first half of the Brooklyn-Belmont double. Both events are at, what else, a mile and a half.

As with the 3-year-olds, it's a question of who will stay the trip. There are several candiates: Calidoscopio (5-2), winner of the 14-furlong Breeders' Cup Marathon, Birdrun (12-1), who won this race in 2011, and Ruler On Ice (8-1), winner of that year's Belmont Stakes, to name three.

But our nod goes to Fast Falcon (7-2), the 4-year-old that almost upset last year's Travers, who's bred for this kind of race, has done his best racing on this surface, given excellent figures here and three exacta finishes in four starts.

It's a slate that easily could have read (4) 1-2-0 had the head bob gone his way in the recent Albert The Great overnighter. He chased the loose-leading favorite, Percussion (3-1), who is back in the entries here and was unlucky at the wire. It appears Fast Falcon has been clearly pointed to this and likely will improve in his second start off the layup for Nick Zito, who owns good stats in that scenario.

Given the cot's penchant for finishing second, the wise guys should be off in this spot and the price fair.

Taking Fast Falcon to win at 3-1 or greater and boxing him in mutiples with Quick Casablanca (4-1), a Group 1 winner on turf and dirt in South America making his second U.S. start for the Clement/Rosario team, very sharp price shot Keep Me Informed (20-1), wet track loving Ruler On Ice (8-1) and the aforementioned Percussion (3-1).

Number of Selections: 1330

Number of Win-Place-Show Finishers: 406-252-203

Amount Wagered: $2,660 [to win only]

Total Dollar Return on Investment: $2,789.20

Profit to Date: $129.20

Comments (1)

Thursday, June 06, 2013

Dawg Gone It

Today's Belmont Park feature is a secondary allowance-optional claimer for older New York-breds sprinting six furlongs. Even with six entrants, the race is more interesting that it might appear at first blush.

Half the field can win to our count: the returning Jeter (7-5), making his first start as a 4-year-old and for a new barn, Kelly Breen's; Driven by Solar (5-2), likely to get his preferred dry track for Jamie Ness, batting 33% second time off the claim, and Marsh Dawg (5-1), very impressive winning last out at Finger Lakes for Chris Englehardt, returning from a year's absence to do it. So then why won't he regress here?

He could, obviously, but we're banking on a trainer who's shipping into Gotham, hiking the 7-year-old gelding up from the $10,000 claiming level and, most significantly, is 29% efficient with repeaters and 26% second time off the layup. The presence of Castellano is another plus, as are the early line odds.

Taking Marsh Dawg to win at 4-1 or greater and key-boxing him in multiples with his two rivals here.

Number of Selections: 1330

Number of Win-Place-Show Finishers: 406-252-203

Amount Wagered: $2,660 [to win only]

Total Dollar Return on Investment: $2,789.20

Profit to Date: $129.20

Comments (1)