Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis

Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.

In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line" column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line" banner.

Wednesday, December 10, 2014

Hopefully, I’ve Learned My Lesson by Now

The Gulfstream race week begins with the overnight Golden Beach Stakes for 3YO fillies going a flat mile and, typical of this meet, a highly competitive event.

We left about six of these open on our first pass but settled a filly that is every horseplayer's lament from the time time: You Never Learn (6-1)

What we did learn is to respect a horse for a course and this filly has won all of her career starts, five, in Hallandale Beach. Further, she was an excellent second in her Sprint finale at GPW earning a good Energy Rating with excellent pace distribution and is also a two-time winner at the distance from as many starts.

An inside slip and Paco certainly doesn't hurt the cause. Taking You Never Learn to win at 3-1 or greater and key-boxing exactas with super sharp Flutterby (10-1) and U.S.S. O'Brien, exiting a GP event that has produced three subsequent next-out winners.

Number of Selections since 2007: 1655

Number of Win and Place Finishes: 498-323

Amount Wagered: $3,310 [to win only]

Total Dollar Return on Investment: $3,451.00

Profit to Date: $141.00

Written by John Pricci

Comments (3)


Sunday, December 07, 2014

Easy As Parx

HRI has entered into a promotional relationship with in which each Sunday we analyze the six races that comprise their unique Pick 6 contest wager; the current featured track is Parx Racing. The following is a profile of races 4 through 9. For the purposes of the Feature Race Analysis, in today's 8th race we're taking Persuasive Gal (2-1) to win, no price restrictions, and key-boxing the exacta with Temper Too (12-1) and Landry Jack (9-2).

FOURTH: 7-LOVESHACKLED (3-1) has been very consistent since the Lake claim, just missing with game effort under identical conditions last out. 3-THE CAT’S EYE (2-1) takes huge drop for Aristone, a profitable 27% scenario; logical favorite. 8-HE’S SO EVIL (10-1) makes third start off long layup for Pino/Sanchez team; wakeup potential here.

FIFTH: 7-SHE’S HOLY (3-1) earned lifetime best Energy Rating when third vs. tougher last out; drop and added trip can make the difference, as might switch to Alvarado. 3-STOLEN DANCE (4-1) comes off top Energy Rating for LeBarron, taking confident class rise here; dangerous rival. 1-SIDNEY ANNE (5-1) moved way up on wet track last out.

SIXTH: 8-TEXAS RED (5-2) meets significantly weaker going from beaten claimers to restricted company, Lake being 26% effective with two-class droppers; clearly best if fit. 3-PINE RED CAT (8-1) is also meeting weaker and turn-back makes sense here; picks up Pennington.

SEVENTH: 3-MAJOR IN TIME (5-2) comes off lengthy maiden score, cycling back to lifetime best Energy Rating; properly placed with non-winner of 2 lifers and Vega 24% profitable coming off the maiden win. SOCIAL NETWORK (4-1) has not taken a backward step with this kind of dynamic since barn change now returns to Allard barn that’s 22% with its beaten favorites.

EIGHTH: 4-PERSUASIVE GIRL (2-1) is on a bounce-rebound pattern now stretches back out to her most effective trip reuniting with Pennington. 2-TEMPER TOO (12-1) returned from layup in top form to break maiden vs. open rivals now returns to state-bred ranks stretching out with a suitable distance pedigree; excellent value on early line. 6-LANDRY JACK (9-2) earned competitive figures two and three starts back and ships into Parx for crafty ship-in outfit; better than generally rated.

NINTH: 5-BELLSFORSAMANTHA (1-1) returns from freshening for barn that’s 2-for-5 dropping down in first start off the claim and is also profitable with 90-days + returnees; earned Energy Ratings in last two starts that lay over this group.

SUGGESTED 123 P6 PLAY: 3.7 with 3.7 with 8 with 3 with 2.4.6 with 5---$24

Number of Selections since 2007: 1654

Number of Win and Place Finishes: 497-323

Amount Wagered: $3,308 [to win only]

Total Dollar Return on Investment: $3,446.40

Profit to Date: $138.40

Written by John Pricci

Comments (7)


Saturday, December 06, 2014

Ride’m Luis!

Welcome to the start of what Gulfstream calls its championship meet and given its history, the Hallandale track is entitled to some bragging rights, hence the branding.

Oddly, the championship meet begins with a celebration of many of this country's hardest hitting claimers, the Claiming Crown, the Platers Breeders' Cup, and it's the Claiming Crown Jewel that's the biggest bauble of the six added money events.

Like many of today's events it feature a large competitive field--did we mention competitive?! We're interested in a price shot that has been pointed for this since the leaves began to turn. Besides, we can't take a short price in this group.

Catholic Cowboy (15-1) has a modest three-win record but one of those came in his maiden breaker over the surface beneath Luis Saez. He was a perfect trip winner at Saratoga this summer making a good rally up the fence, conditions that are likely to prevail here with his inside draw, coming from sprints, and with Saez who's proven adept in this kind of scenario. His recent blowout was the fastest of 22 peers last week at Palm Meadows.

Taking first-time gelding Catholic Cowboy to win at 9-1 or greater and key-boxing in money positions with sharp ship-in Page McKenney (9-2), Kobiskie-improved speedster Cerro (4-1) from the pole, and late running Dawly (3-1), who's been competitive with better throughout his career.

Number of Selections since 2007: 1653

Number of Win and Place Finishes: 496-323

Amount Wagered: $3,306 [to win only]

Total Dollar Return on Investment: $3,408.60

Profit to Date: $102.60

Written by John Pricci

Comments (3)


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