Friday, May 11, 2007

Looking for Texas-Sized Value

The Kentucky Derby is history, but several minor derbies remain to be contested, beginning with Saturday’s renewal of the $300,000 Lone Star Derby. This Grade III event has drawn several interesting 3-year-olds who are currently a cut below the best of the division. It looks like a good betting race, so let’s take a look at the field.

Reporting For Duty is an improving sort who ran a lifetime best Equiform final number in the Illinois Derby. He is one of three Steve Asmussen contenders in the race and should be respected.

Forty Grams, the next Asmussen horse, has shown nice development and rates to sit just off the early pace of Slew’s Tizzy and Mr. Nightliner. If he doesn’t get involved in the early pace battle, he should be in the mix at the finish.

Moyer’s Pond is my longshot special if he is near his 15/1 morning line. This Tony Reinstedler charge has done nothing wrong in his first three starts. Out of 2001 Kentucky Derby winner Monarchos, he should give a good account of himself.

Takedown is the third horse from the Asmussen barn. He’ll be a bigger price than his stablemates, but isn’t that far behind in ability.

Slew’s Tizzy is the morning line fave off his front-running tally in the Lexington. Both his wins have come on the front end over polytrack. He will face a lot of early pressure in here from Nightliner and then will have to hold off the likes of pressers like Forty Grams and Harrow Land and finally closers Moyer’s Pond and Reporting for Duty – a tall order at a short price. I am throwing him out as he rates to be overbet. If we had betting exchanges here in the U.S., I would be shorting him ‘til the cows come home.

Mr Nightliner is a confirmed early speed type who will force the hand of Slew’s Tizzy. Little chance to last with these.

Reatta’s Rocket is a steady sort, but has only been two turns one time and doesn’t stack up on final numbers.

Harrow Land is another from Reinstedler and looks to have some talent. He’s learned to distribute his energy effectively going a route of ground and could surprise.

Taksent is too slow.

Slew by Slew is very unlikely to be in the top four.

The No-Limit Plays:

WIN

#8 Harrow Land to win at 6/1 or better
#3 Moyer’s Pond to win at 10/1 or better

EXACTAS

3/8 box for small
1,2,4/3,8 and 3,8/1,2,4

TRIFECTAS

1,2,4/1,2,4/3,8
1,2,4/3,8/1,2,4

Also, box 1,3,8, box 2,3,8 and box 3,4,8.

Remember, the name of the game is VALUE.



EQUIFORM.com Provides the Most Accurate Thoroughbred Handicapping Data.

Comments (0)

Thursday, May 03, 2007

The Jinx Stops Now

Can it get any wilder and wackier? This year’s 133rd edition of the Kentucky Derby is a vintage skull-buster. We’ve got major contenders off six and eight week layoffs, some more with just two three-year old prep races, and an unbeaten morning line favorite who didn’t race as a two-year old. I might need a two-gig cranial plug-in by 5:30 PM Saturday afternoon.

Barbaro’s unconventional road to the Derby last year and his subsequent victory have given trainers the impetus to challenge long-held precepts about how to prepare a horse for the Run for the Roses. Even so, what is unique about this year’s three-year old crop is that the first five finishers (along with Teuflesberg) from the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile are running in the Derby. This is unprecedented, and leads me to believe that two-year old form will hold up better than usual on Derby Day.

Street Sense is a magnificent animal and trained by a master horseman who knows how to point for a big race. Street Sense demolished the BC Juvenile field with an explosive performance, and I expect to him to reach new heights in the Derby. His two workouts over the Churchill strip have been nothing short of sensational, and he looks primed to be the first horse since Sunny’s Halo in 1983 to win the Derby off just two preps and the first BC Juvenile champion to annex the Derby. He is definitely the one to beat.

Curlin is the big mystery horse this year. He’s hitting over .400 against minor league pitching. Is he the reincarnation Ted Williams or just another spring phenom who can’t hit a major league slider? He has very smooth action, tractable speed and a knack for distributing his energy effectively. The raw talent is certainly there, but he better be ready for Koufax and Gibson on Saturday.

Circular Quay won his first two races at Churchill Downs last summer in impressive fashion. Trainer Todd Pletcher gave him two months off and shipped him to Saratoga to win the Grade I Hopeful. That eight-week layoff is significant as that’s the same time interval from his Louisiana Derby win to the Kentucky Derby. Pletcher has attempted the conventional route to the Derby many times. Some are sure to question the lengthy layoff, but I think Pletcher knows his horse. Also, his sire Thunder Gulch won the Derby and his jockey, John Velazquez, chose to stick with him over the other Pletcher horses. With a strong affinity for the Churchill oval, Circular Quay will look to avenge his second place finish last November.

Hard Spun is an exciting runner from the last crop of the great Danzig. Out of a Turkoman mare, he is bred to run all day. From an Equiform numbers perspective, he has never taken a backward step in his career. The 57.3 blowout the other day is of some concern, but maybe not. Lots of good horses work quickly before a major engagement and go on to win. Remember the 32.3 move by Risen Star before the Belmont? He only won by 15 lengths. Hard Spun carries the hopes of the Delaware Valley ala Smarty Jones, Afleet Alex and Barbaro.

Scat Daddy is a real professional and is moving in the right direction. He figures to run the best race of his life on Saturday and should be used in all gimmicks.

Great Hunter had a very nice two-year old campaign and made a scintillating move on the turn in the Robert Lewis at Santa Anita. He got bounced around good in the Bluegrass, and the public will downgrade him off that effort. By the AP Indy sire Aptitude (who was second in the 2000 Derby), Great Hunter should relish the distance and will be good value.

Under the tutelage of Barclay Tagg, No Biz Like Showbiz has traveled a traditional road to the Derby, contesting the Remsen, Fountain of Youth and Wood Memorial. His first race of his career at Belmont Park stamped him as something special, although he hasn’t yet lived up to his press clippings. He will need to step it up a notch to win on Saturday, but he just might do it.

Any Given Saturday – I didn’t like the regression in the Wood, but he might bounce back with a good one.


Minor Contenders

Cowtown Cat
Sedgefield
Tiago
Dominican
Zanjero
Stormello

THE VALUE BETS –

Street Sense to WIN

Box Street Sense in Exactas with
Circular Quay
Hard Spun
Great Hunter
Scat Daddy

LONGSHOT for Triples and Supers

Sedgefield



EQUIFORM.com Provides the Most Accurate Thoroughbred Handicapping Data.

Comments (0)