Saturday, July 21, 2007

Pick-4 Math and Special Bonus

Pick Four Math and Special Bonus


Last Saturday, we got two of our four "keys" home and nailed the Ellis Park 4% Pick-4 for $798. This is a great bet (offered daily) and we should all play it as much as we can.

Here are today's keys and, after the slash (/), the secondary horses.

RACE 8 1/2,3,8,11,12

RACE 9 8/2,3,7

RACE 10 9/1,2,3,4,7

RACE 11 4/2,11,12

Once again, we will try and get at least two "keys" home. For information on how to structure my recommend play, go to http://www.equiform.com and click on the In The Press link to the article on the Pick-3 and Pick-4 . The first five people who e-mail me at with the correct cost of a 50-cent play (assuming no scratches) will receive a FREE COPY of my book, Blinkers Off. (Hint - there are eleven 50-cent tickets in total).




EQUIFORM.com Provides the Most Accurate Thoroughbred Handicapping Data.

Comments (1)

Saturday, July 14, 2007

Get On Board the Ellis Park 4% Pick-4 Rocket Ship

I guess some of you are listening.

The Ellis Park 4% Pick-4 has launched successfully. Handle continues to rise on this fantastic bet. After a season-high $36,000 on Wednesday, it went to $37,000 on Thursday, and a whopping $49,858 on Friday – and we haven’t even left the atmosphere yet.

As more money is bet into the Ellis Pick-4 pool, bigger bettors will increase their participation due the greater “liquidity”. What’s so great about this bet is that smaller bettors also have a chance for a five-figure score due to the minimum 50-cent wager. Friday’s Pick-4 winners paid $3.80, $20.20, $5.00 and $18.00. The $2 win parlay was $864 but the Pick-4 paid $4,060, over four times the parlay. See the wonders of a 4% take? On opening day, July 4th, the Pick-4 paid over EIGHT times the parlay.

Here is my “take” on Saturday’s Pick-4 at Ellis Park.

In each race, I list a key horse followed by secondary selections after the slash (/)
Mix and match as you like. My recommendation is to try to get two get at least two keys home. More on how to structure such tickets in a future column..

NO LIMIT PLAY –

RACE 8 4/1,6,7,10

RACE 9 1/2,4,8

RACE 10 4/1,2,7

RACE 11 1/3,4,8



EQUIFORM.com Provides the Most Accurate Thoroughbred Handicapping Data.

Comments (2)

Saturday, July 07, 2007

The Best Bet in Racing

Ellis Park is offering a Pick-4 with a 4% take out! Yes, that’s right, 4 percent. If
we horseplayers want to send a strong message to the industry at large that takeout rates DO matter to us, then now is the time to get in the starting gate.

Any horseplayer worth his or her salt should be participating in this pool as often as possible and for as much as possible. Not only does the Ellis Park Pick-4 offer fantastic value, it also provides an opportunity for players to show the powers that be that significantly lowering takeout rates is crucial in today's competitive gaming environment.

In an effort to encourage you to play this bet as often as possible, I will be making the XTRAS and SHORTS for Ellis Park available on the Equiform home page for free downloading for every Saturday of the Ellis Park meet. You can also download the legends for both products along with the Equiform Pattern Guide. The XTRAS and SHORTS will be posted by 1 PM EST on Friday. This a great opportunity to wager on the Best Bet in the game today while also learning about Equiform pace and final performance numbers.

I cannot stress strongly enough the importance of heavily supporting the Ellis Park Pick-4. As a member of the NTRA players panel, I have been fighting for lower takeouts for a long, long time. How serendipitous it was for me to finally meet a racetrack executive who not only shared my vision, but also has the connections and financial clout to make it a reality.

Please start spreadin' the word. On opening day, July 4th, the $2 win parlay on the Ellis Park Pick-4 was $1318. The Pick-4 returned $10,858 - eight times the parlay. Mathematically, the Ellis Park Pick-4 should return 28% more than a Pick-4 with the industry standard 25% takeout (.96/.75 = 1.28). Looking at it another way you are only paying 1% per race as this 4% take is only extracted once. You won't find a better gamble anywhere unless it's late in the blackjack shoe with a surfeit of face-cards remaining.

IT'S ONE STEP BY RON GEARY but a GIANT STEP for HORSEPLAYERS.


So there it is folks. A great bet that affords us the chance to speak with our pocketbooks. Lets SEND IT IN on the Ellis Park 4% Pick-4 and take this first step in turning this industry on its head. Maybe then, the game will receive the recognition for what it is - the best game on the planet.

Now, on to Saturday's Pick-4

In each race I will list my keys and then, after the slash, my secondary contenders. Mix and match as you like. I suggest setting up your tickets such that you hit it if you get any two keys home. More on how to structure such tickets in next week's column.

NO LIMIT PLAY FOR ELLIS PARK 4% PICK-4

Race 7 7/2,3,5,8

Lord Maybe is the fastest horse - Mightyhansum is a nice longshot off the New Pace Top (NPT)

Race 8 4/1,3,5,9

Liveinthepresnt may take 'em all the way - Wild UR is only 2-time winner over Ellis weeds - Doro's Don Juan is on a Turf Decline Line (TDL)

Race 9 4/1,2

Peace and Joy is a win machine (23 for 62) and can win on the front or sit off the pace - Best horse to single if you need to cut corners -

Race 10 1/4,5,6,7,9,11,12

The E Dubai(s) come out running - Sea of Fire on a Compression Line (COMP) which often portends a nice turf effort - This race is a real crapshoot, so spread if you can afford it.


Cary Fotias
President - Equiform



EQUIFORM.com Provides the Most Accurate Thoroughbred Handicapping Data.

Comments (0)