No Limit Plays for July 26
DEL MAR (1ST): Great Raid (4-1) is first off the claim for Kitchingham and is boss pace, coming off a New Pace Top, and getting weight. Bet to win plus an exacta box with Box Office Star.
DEL MAR (4TH): Costa Marta (8-1) established that he was as fast as these as a two year old of 2008. Also is in receipt of weight and turning back to his best distance. Bet to win and key Costa Marta in exactas and trifectas with #s 3, 6, 9.
July 26 Results: (2) 0-0-0 Current Running Totals: (46) 15-3-5 Total Dollar Return: $204.70 [win selections only]
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Cary Fotias
Cary Fotias is the Founder and President of Equiform, a New York City firm that produces The XTRAS and The SHORTS, handicapping products for evaluating current condition and form cycles. He is also the author of the critically acclaimed handicapping book, Blinkers Off, which describes an innovative numerical approach to form-cycle analysis.
After spending eight years as a currency trader on Wall Street, Fotias has spent the last 16 years as professional handicapper. He is a member of the NTRA Players Panel and was chosen to give a presentation to the Ad Hoc Committee on the Future of New York Racing on behalf of New York horseplayers.
Fotias is a vocal proponent of lower takeouts. He also has a strong interest in the cutting-edge concept of betting exchanges and how they might be developed in the U.S. He feels the game would prosper if it would only adapt to the economic and technological realities of the information age.
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27 Jul 2009 at 10:01 pm | #
Cary, I just wanted to thank you for the picks anyway. Did you think the track played a little more to early speed then the first three days ? I did not pay real close but it did seem to be kinder to speed.
28 Jul 2009 at 06:29 am | #
Hi Brian -
I take Sundays off (unless there is a big P6 carryover somewhere) so did not see the races.
However, I couldn’t believe Box Office Star (who I said to use in exacta) paid $14.80. On the morning line, he was 5/2 and Great Raid 4/1, so I suggested Great Raid as the play. At the actual post time prices (Great Raid was 5/2), Box Office Star was much better value.
That’s why being decision oriented rather selection oriented is the key to making profits.
CARY..
28 Jul 2009 at 06:31 am | #
Cary
As I was placing my bets Sunday I thought about placing a win bet in the first on Box Office Star if the odds were good. Since you had suggested an exacta box, would that have been a good saver bet, as the exacta box was, or is that spreading too thin?
I am one of those who sometimes has confidence in my handicapping, and yours, but have less confidence in my bet structuring. It hurts to have the right picks and still not win.
What determines when you decide to use the vertical exotics and when not to?
Tim