Friday, May 11, 2007
The Kentucky Derby is history, but several minor derbies remain to be contested, beginning with Saturday’s renewal of the $300,000 Lone Star Derby. This Grade III event has drawn several interesting 3-year-olds who are currently a cut below the best of the division. It looks like a good betting race, so let’s take a look at the field.
Reporting For Duty is an improving sort who ran a lifetime best Equiform final number in the Illinois Derby. He is one of three Steve Asmussen contenders in the race and should be respected.
Forty Grams, the next Asmussen horse, has shown nice development and rates to sit just off the early pace of Slew’s Tizzy and Mr. Nightliner. If he doesn’t get involved in the early pace battle, he should be in the mix at the finish.
Moyer’s Pond is my longshot special if he is near his 15/1 morning line. This Tony Reinstedler charge has done nothing wrong in his first three starts. Out of 2001 Kentucky Derby winner Monarchos, he should give a good account of himself.
Takedown is the third horse from the Asmussen barn. He’ll be a bigger price than his stablemates, but isn’t that far behind in ability.
Slew’s Tizzy is the morning line fave off his front-running tally in the Lexington. Both his wins have come on the front end over polytrack. He will face a lot of early pressure in here from Nightliner and then will have to hold off the likes of pressers like Forty Grams and Harrow Land and finally closers Moyer’s Pond and Reporting for Duty – a tall order at a short price. I am throwing him out as he rates to be overbet. If we had betting exchanges here in the U.S., I would be shorting him ‘til the cows come home.
Mr Nightliner is a confirmed early speed type who will force the hand of Slew’s Tizzy. Little chance to last with these.
Reatta’s Rocket is a steady sort, but has only been two turns one time and doesn’t stack up on final numbers.
Harrow Land is another from Reinstedler and looks to have some talent. He’s learned to distribute his energy effectively going a route of ground and could surprise.
Taksent is too slow.
Slew by Slew is very unlikely to be in the top four.
The No-Limit Plays:
#8 Harrow Land to win at 6/1 or better
#3 Moyer’s Pond to win at 10/1 or better
3/8 box for small
1,2,4/3,8 and 3,8/1,2,4
Also, box 1,3,8, box 2,3,8 and box 3,4,8.
Remember, the name of the game is VALUE.