New Pace Tops - North and South

Sunday, August 09, 2009

1. David G says:
   10 Aug 2009  at  04:56 pm | #

   Nice call Cary on PRINCE JOSHUA.

   Questions and observations:

   Did he look like a 12/1 shot in the PP’s?

   Did the morning line oddsmaker underestimate his chances?

   PRINCE JOSHUA opened up at 3/1 and remained there the entire time the windows were open until the running of the race when he drifted up a notch for a $9.20 payout.

   The WPS mutuel pool, the largest of all the types of wagering that was available on the race was $120,000+. (Exacta pool was $89,700)

   Even so, was there so much smart money bet on this race on a typical Sunday at Monmouth?

   If this sought of trend continues, how is the keen handicapper going to continue to have an edge on this game, especially when we expect the PRINCE JOSHUAS to lose three out of every four times he runs?

2. Cary Fotias says:
   12 Aug 2009  at  07:44 am | #

   Hi David -

   There were several strong contenders in the race but, given the class drop from a Grade II, I would have expected the morning line maker to peg Prince Joshua at around 6/1.

   Also, quite a few people follow my plays.  That is why my recent blog on “Racing’s Liquidity Crisis” is so pertinent.

   You mention there was roughly $120,000 in the win pool.  So, let’s conduct a little parimutuel mathematics and see how my flock could affect the pool.  The win take at Monmouth is 17% - thus, .83 (120000) = 99600 and 99600/4.6 (final win odds plus one) = 21652 for the amount bet on Prince Joshua (PJ).  If we assume that 100 people who wouldn’t have bet PJ without my selecting him, each bet $100 to win, we get the following.

   The win pool would be $110,000 without those $10,000 in wagers ( I bet $600 myself), and there would only be $11652 bet on PJ. Now, let’s do THAT math. .83 (110000)= 91300 and 91300/11652 = 7.835 which yields a win payoff of $15.60 (after breakage - of course), which is aprroximately what I would have expected. Even just an extra $5000 would reduce the payoff to $11.40.

   Thus, the way to continue to have an edge in this game is to find value and not share it with anybody.  That is why we only do our EQUIFORM Tele-Clinics on big event event days where the gigantic pools can absorb the Equiform $$ without such an impact on price.

   So why do I give out these plays every Sunday when I know it’s going to hurt my prices when they win?  Beacause I want to show people that I can TEACH them how to be WINNERS so they will purchase more of my products. Then,I won’t have to depend primarily on gambling (which, for me, takes 8-10 hours of handicapping and betting a day, in addition to another 4-6 hours making numbers)for the bulk of my income. This will free me up to work on my new book and spend more than just Sunday afternnons with my wife.

   In the next month or so, I will be announcing a new and unique Equiform product that will be launched in October.

   Best Wishes

   CARY..

3. Tom Nichols says:
   19 Aug 2009  at  11:29 am | #

   enjoyed your appearance on Trackfacts Cary...could you give me an address so I might get your book Blinkers Off, and continued good handicapping.

   regards,
   Tom Nichols

4. CARY FOTIAS says:
   20 Aug 2009  at  12:27 am | #

   Hi Tom --

   Thank You—

   Just call my office manager, George Brice, toll free at 866 374 3676 and he will happy to assist you.

   Best Wishes

   CARY..

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