HRI's Triple Crown Power Rankings

The HRI Triple Crown Power Rankings is a consensus opinion of HorseRaceInsider's editorial staff compiled and written by executive editor John Pricci. It is an amalgam of achievement and opinion relative to the merits of the 2013 Triple Crown. The HRI Triple Crown Power Rankings will be adjusted each week following significant prep race developments.


HRI’s Kentucky Derby Power Rankings 04-14-2008


HRI Derby Power Rankings
Rk.
Horse
HRI
Rating
Equiform:
Last Figure/Top

Next Start

 
1.
Big Brown
139
79½T
Kentucky Derby 5/3

Commentary: The consensus favorite. Decision has been made to keep Big Brown at Palm Meadows training facility, where he’s been all winter, until he ships to Churchill Downs April 28th. Meanwhile, colt had his usual five furlong maintenance breeze last week (1:00.60). It will be interesting to see his future training schedule. The Derby is Capital-D demanding. Don’t know if Rick Dutrow can afford to stay out of his way for this rodeo.

2.
Colonel John
133
75½T
Kentucky Derby 5/3

Commentary:
Consensus second choice. With the exception of undefeated Big Brown, Eoin Harty’s long-striding colt moves up a notch from last week due to his laudable consistency, an excellent compliment to his talent and versatility. The fact that California shippers into the Arkansas Derby finished first, third and fourth, the synthetic surface transition issue may not be no bugaboo at all. Churchill works will be illuminating.

3.
Pyro
130
70/77T
Kentucky Derby 5/3

Commentary:
What was that? Won’t know for sure until May’s first Saturday but clearly that wasn’t the winner of the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby on display. Blue Grass non-effort means that Steve Asmussen will have to train him rigorously for the big dance; can’t imagine him getting anything out of Saturday’s race. No comparisons can be made to Street Sense who, at least, ran his race.

4.
Tale Of Ekati
123
74½/75*T
Kentucky Derby 5/3

Commentary:
With his Louisiana Derby a throw-out, he won the Wood off limited conditioning except for his training regimen. In terms of continued development, he has a good deal of upside still. Edgar Prado has a tough decision to make, having a choice of this colt, Blue Grass winner Monba and talented late developer Adriano. Graham Motion, who trains the latter, gave him 24 hours to decide following Sunday’s Churchill Downs workout.

5.
Monba
122
75¼T
Kentucky Derby 5/3

Commentary:
With his back to the wall, Todd Pletcher made the right call, sending the Keeneland maiden breaker and strong recent surface worker to the Blue Grass. His cuts, bruises and breathing problems no longer an issue, he was very good in Lexington this past weekend. He’s won at Churchill, too, and likes the battle: two photos; two victories. He’s the “now horse.” If Edgar opts off, look for Rene Douglas; 2-for-2 on the colt.

6.
War Pass
119
74¼/79¼T
Kentucky Derby 5/3

Commentary:
Following his Tampa non-effort, Nick Zito speedster should get a whole lot out of the Wood Memorial after getting rabbitized in fast fractions over a tiring, drying-out Aqueduct strip. In addition to making the race at all, and staying 10 furlongs, the victory of pace pressing Gayego in Hot Springs adds another quality speed type to the Derby fray. His future may be better served by waiting for the Preakness or Metropolitan Mile.

7.
Gayego
115
74½/76½*T
Kentucky Derby 5/3

Commentary:
Despite short odds, ran better than expected to win Arkansas Derby. His lifetime best performance figure was earned sprinting, no surprise for a speedy son of Gilded Time. What was surprising was the fairly kind way he rated in Hot Springs and went on about his business. Jockey Mike Smith thinks he’ll go 10 furlongs. Won’t find too many riders to say otherwise after winning a million-dollar race.

8.
Recapturetheglory
112
77½T
Kentucky Derby 5/3

Commentary:
Took advantage of a speedy surface and favorable pace and race-shape scenario to win Illinois Derby but he did it with style and in very fast time, earning the second fastest performance figure by a three-year-old going long this year. Whether he’ll be able to handle the expected hot Derby pace is another matter entirely, especially now with Gayego added to the Churchill mix.

9.
Cowboy Cal
111
75¼/75½T[turf]
Kentucky Derby 5/3

Commentary:
As expected, made a fairly seamless transition from turf to Polytrack and did everything right except win the Blue Grass. Saturday’s Keeneland surface was a little quicker than usual, but frontrunning to victory is still very difficult at this venue. By Giant’s Causeway, there’s no reason why he won’t take to dirt, but the Derby is not your usual dirt race. He’s fast and certainly is consistent enough. Derby race shape won’t favor his style.

10.
Adriano
110
75
Kentucky Derby 5/3

Commentary:
His connections still think he’s better on grass, and perhaps Polytrack, too, but following Sunday’s promising workout over a cuppy Churchill Downs surface, trainer Graham Motion is convinced his colt belongs in the Derby. We felt the same way the instant he crossed the finish line in full stride while winning the G2 Lane’s End. Bred to run up the side of a mountain, Derby shape suits his late punch very well.


*=Equiform sprint figure
T=Equiform Lifetime Top
/=Most Recent Equiform Figure/Lifetime Top


Written by John Pricci - Comments (1)

 
 

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