HALLANDALE BEACH, FLA., April 4, 2011--Anyone serious about their craft in this business probably wrestled with their Kentucky Derby Poll rankings order before casting a ballot.
Uncle Mo or Dialed In? Dialed In or Uncle Mo?
Somewhat surprisingly, Uncle Mo remained the consensus top choice in the HRI Derby Power 10, Week 8 edition.
We’ve mentioned before how these Thoroughbred polls can be tricky. Horse racing wouldn’t exist without the fans being at odds with each other. And so, that’s the issue with polling.
Achievement or ability? Ability or achievement?
As difficult a question as that is, in our view it’s a little bit of both, walking the line between opinion and fact.
What made this week’s three-year-old poll so interesting is that clearly, based on three-year-old form, Dialed In owns victories in two graded stakes, the Holy Bull and Grade 1 Florida Derby, easily the deepest field of the 2011 prep season.
For his part, Dialed In won the ungraded Timely Writer, a race whose distance was changed to accommodate the juvenile champion needing a place to begin his three-year-old season.
What ultimately won out is the fact that Uncle Mo never has been beaten and is a defending champion. But then Dialed In never has been beaten within his own age group.
How should one evaluate the slow running time? But then how many times do horses come from the next county to win at Gulfstream Park?
Polling, like handicapping the races, is more art than science, so we guess it‘s a case of beauty resting in the beholder‘s eye.
Significantly, this week, anyway, the gap between the top four and the bottom six is widening. Interesting, too, the way the power numbers turn out, there is a two-horse and four-horse dead heat for third and sixth, respectively.
But there’s no sense in getting tied up in knots over this, not with the Wood Memorial, Santa Anita Derby and Illinois Derby coming up this weekend and the Arkansas Derby the next.
That’s when the scores can really change.
HRI KENTUCKY DERBY POWER 10, Week 8:
1. Uncle Mo (36) All the chatter now centers around two questions: Will another easy victory in the Wood Memorial have him combat ready for the Derby rodeo? How does the presence of The Factor effect his strategy? Answer: Let’s see what happens on Saturday first.
2. Dialed In (27) There will be a lot of quotes from Nick Zito saying something like “all we need now is another good five weeks,” etc., etc. This colt probably does have six races worth of experience. “That’s what I loved about his allowance race. He was between horses and he was no trouble, said Julien Leparoux.
3. Premier Pegasus (21) The chatter around him centers on will how show that same explosive mid-race move with more reasonable fractions? His San Felipe was a freaky effort, but under freaky circumstances. SA Derby should be instructive.
3. The Factor (21) Hard to believe but here’s a colt who’s just as fast as Uncle Mo and like the champ, distributes his energy late as well as early. We know he really likes Oaklawn Park. The ninth furlong is the next interesting variable.
5. Anthony’s Cross (11) Moved up in the rankings by virtue of his recent inactivity. On Saturday, this game speedster needs to show that he owns an extra dimension and the ability to handle strong rivals at a meaningful distance.
6. Jaycito (9) Don’t understand the change of heart, remaining at home instead of shipping East for the Wood. In a Kentucky Derby context, what would have been wrong with a strong-finish second or third behind Uncle Mo? Connections probably looking for a more contentious pace battle expected in the SA Derby.
6. Mucho Macho Man (9) His right fore which he grabbed while pulling off a shoe in the Louisiana Derby is all heeled. No decision on what’s next will be made until he gets back into his regular training routine. It could be a race; it could be a public workout between races. Stay tuned.
6. Soldat (9) As stated previously, horses are allowed to throw in a bad one every once in a while. The Florida Derby was easily the worst effort of his career; baffling considering how he was coming up to the race. Simply not the way you draw up your final Derby prep.
6. To Honor And Serve (9) It’s hard to know how much is there but this seems clear. His Florida Derby was much better than his Fountain of Youth. In terms of conditioning, the brief-rally effort followed by a hard speed prep is the way you get fit, physically and mentally. If he has a good five weeks…
10. Shackleford (5) Simply have to acknowledge his effort in the Florida Derby in which he came up a head short. He took pressure from To Honor and Serve throughout, held firm when Flashpoint attempted a three-path sweep, understandably tiring late. Getting good at the right time.



06 Apr 2011 at 07:22 am | #
For me, as of today, 6 April 2011, my speculative opinions regarding Uncle Mo, The Factor, and even Flashpoint, and the unknowns, outweigh anything all the others have accomplished on the racetrack. I’m not smart enough to understand who Dialed In is, and he remains an enigma. Is he Zenyatta all over again, just doing what he has to? Did he show us all he had? Is Shackleford a bona fide monster, or was he at the right place, at the right time, in the right shape in the Florida Derby, facing a group of Derby also rans, who when faced with the cavalier speed of The Factor, will say farewell after 6 furlongs on the first Saturday in May. That has to be my belief, and with that belief, brings me back to who Dialed In is? Reserving any kind of judgment on Premier Pegasus until he runs on Saturday. Will the battle for a position in the gate, force certain horses to go against their trainer’s preferred schedule, and will anybody run in the Derby Trial, in order to get to the promised land. Contrary to what almost everybody believes, think it is a great positive to run in that race just one week before, and don’t know anything about the past statistics, but feel whatever the statistics say, they probably reflect the fact that horses that ran in that race, did so, not because of a planned strategy, but to try and gain enough funds for a spot. Would like to see The Factor run in the Derby Trial, rather than being raced in the early a.m. Give it a try Bob.
TTT
06 Apr 2011 at 09:01 am | #
Teddy,
The race close to the Derby that I like as a prep is The Lexington. Obviously, since Keeneland went to Polytrack it hasn’t had much of an impact on the Derby, but I don’t think that is inherent to the surface or the transition to Churchill. I just don’t think trainers understand who and how to prep there. Nafzger did it right with Street Sense and plenty of horses have gone Keeneland to Churchill in the two Breeders Cups of the sunthetic era. The horse I’d like to see get an additional prep over poly is To Honor and Serve. I don’t think Gulfstream was to his liking and I think he’ll improve coming North but you can’t expect him to contend in Louisville off that mediocre effort in the Florida Derby.
06 Apr 2011 at 02:11 pm | #
I cannot for the life of me understand how the above commentators, along with numerous others, can get so involved with one horse race, the Kentucky Derby, unless they are the owner, trainer, or jockey, or related to them. Gentlemen, it is one horse race out of well over 55,000 other races held during a year; unless you guys are getting a ‘cut’ of the purse then I fail to understand your enthusiasm.
Isn’t this ‘game’ about making money, or have I been led astray for fifty-two years?
The thing that has me totally flummoxed is how this race differs from any other race on that day’s race card or any race at any other racetrack any day of the year; they are all virtually identical!
I can understand the turf writers writing about the Derby and other stake races throughout the year, as these races give them something to write about. But, common, you guys/gals are caught up in one race that is absolutely like no other the entire year.
If anyone out there can convince me that wagering on the Derby is more of a sure thing than the first race at Philly, Pimlico, or Penn Nat’l, I am all ears.
06 Apr 2011 at 04:09 pm | #
Gamblers are fans too! It’s ok for horseplayers to be emotionally invested in a horse.
06 Apr 2011 at 04:46 pm | #
Dear wmcorrow:
Can only speak for myself, but I have always loved the Kentucky Derby more than any other horse race, and it is one of the few days over the course of my life, that it was socially acceptable to be a horseplayer. It is Americana. It is wholesome, it is sexy, it is exciting, and I look forward to it each and every year. Every American should attend at least once in their lifetime; what an experience.
Sincerely,
Teddy