SARATOGA SPRINGS, NY, May 16, 2011--The victory by Alternation in the Peter Pan Stakes, more of a Belmont Stakes harbinger than the Preakness barometer, of course, was so compelling that he has broken through to the bottom of HRI’s Triple Crown Power 10.
To reiterate, the Power 10 is a compilation combining past accomplishment with future promise and, despite all the dire words used to dismiss this 3-year-old class, the final chapter of any sophomore generation ultimately is written in the minutes after the completion of that year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic.
Besides, what if Animal Kingdom wins his next two starts? Proof positive that the rest of the group is terrible? Hardly. While it might be true that Secretariat had his Sham as a yardstick, and Affirmed his Alydar, Seattle Slew didn’t have a worthy contemporary measuring rod. Does that make Slew any less than?
The point is that while one swallow does not a flock make, it takes only one colt, when viewed through history’s prism, to define a generation. May is barely half over; there’s plenty of racing left.
Another question re: this crop. What if The Factor doesn’t lose a Grade 1 sprint race the rest of the year, or if Toby’s Corner comes back to defeat his Derby-winning stablemate? And here’s one last possibility.
Knowing there’s a chance that Uncle Mo might have been dealing with gastrointestinal issues even before his Wood Memorial defeat, what if Uncle Mo were to come back 100 percent?
The Classic is back at Churchill Downs this year and here’s some perspective regarding “the good” Uncle Mo. On the Equiform scale, Uncle Mo earned a final figure of 79-¾ winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile on that surface, compared to Animal Kingdom’s 78-¾ in the Derby.
Indeed, Uncle Mo was a special juvenile champion. But a handful of 2011 3-year-olds still can develop to the point where the group still might be considered special. There’s more than enough time for that.
At this moment, Animal Kingdom is considered by many to be a good horse with a chance to win it all. In April, many fans didn’t even know he existed. That’s all we’re saying.
The HRI Triple Crown Power 10 for Week 13:
1. Animal Kingdom - Graham Motion said last week that his colt could not be doing better considering he’s coming off a lifetime best effort. The colt’s best attributes going forward--an electric turn of foot notwithstanding--is his freshness and world class connections.
2. Toby’s Corner - On the same NTRA conference call, Motion indicated this guy responded very well to acupuncture treatment, the lameness he experienced after the Wood was gone and that might be back galloping this week. Good news for those connections; for his rivals, not so much.
3. Nehro - As stated previously, he’s super honest but has done an awful lot of developing in a short period of time. Owner Zayat said he’s 50-50 for the Preakness and 70-30 for the Belmont. Even though the owner’s pointing Jaycito that way, too, I’m thinking it’s more like 90-10.
4. Mucho Macho Man - The energizer rabbit of the group, this guy just keeps coming and coming, and growing and growing. June 15 foal has been thriving at Belmont Park since the Derby. Observers report he has lost none of his enthusiasm following the Derby.
5. Dialed In -His Derby was better than the eighth-place finish looks, finishing in faster final fractions than Animal Kingdom did. Nick Zito has 5-½ million reasons indicating that he’ll be better on Saturday than he was two weekends ago. Does the name Louis Quatorze strike a familiar note?
6. Uncle Mo -Getting R & R and treatment for his gastrointestinal problems at Winstar Farm. Mike Repole said this week that the Jim Dandy, Travers and Breeders’ Cup would be a great way to end the year. At the moment, Todd Pletcher said he still doesn’t know how to fix the problem. That’s the problem.
7. Midnight Interlude -The experience gained in Louisville will do him a world of good down the road. And they can never take away the favorable impression his talent, athleticism and determination made while winning the Santa Anita Derby. Like the Terminator, he’ll be back. Haskell, Bob?
8. Brilliant Speed - I still see the Secretariat Stakes in his future, or perhaps a Belmont Stakes. However, he doesn’t seem to have the same kind of license Animal Kingdom to make the same successful transition to dirt. But his Derby effort was first rate.
9. Alternation - Having no chance to win the Arkansas Derby with a far-too-late rally, he was more forwardly placed and relaxed in mid-pack beneath Ramon Dominguez on Saturday. Will attempt to become the seventh Peter Pan-Belmont repeater five weeks hence.
10. Shackleford - Just because he was helped by a soft Derby pace doesn’t mean he should be downgraded on Saturday as the surface wasn’t particularly kind to speed at Churchill Downs May 7. Dale Romans said this week he bounced out of the race better than he went in. No reason that he shouldn’t retain his good form this weekend.


17 May 2011 at 07:02 am | #
IMHO,
Don’t forget about Adios Charlie, who could be a player in the division.
Alternation has the pedigree and developing form to win the Belmont.
Toby’s Corner will probably not run against Animal Kingdom until the Breeders Cup.
17 May 2011 at 07:10 am | #
Tobasco Cat, with respect to Adios Charlie, his last was an extremely impressive performance, and if you put him in the gate again against Alternation, have to believe he is just as good, if not better.
TTT
17 May 2011 at 07:33 am | #
If anyone really believes Uncle Mo will race again, I have a bridge in Berryville I’ll sell them.
17 May 2011 at 07:35 am | #
T,
Charlie is a game customer but 1 1/8 might be his limit(Indian Charlie) against....
Alternation(Distorted Humor by a Seattle Slew dam) who is more suited to the Classic distances.
17 May 2011 at 07:45 am | #
Gents,
Couldn’t agree more re: Adios Charlie. Picked him as best value on a new product developed with Cary called the Equiform Betting Guide and cashed--think he was 6-1.
Anyway, was really surprised that at 9 furlongs he’d come back at Alternation like that. This is a real nicely colt who’s being well managed: No Belmont, they’re looking at the Jim Dandy or Haskell. Guess it depends on who shows up in the latter.
Glad TC and TTT you both apparently seem to agree that any class really cannot be judged until the fall. We shall see,
For the record, I’m dubious that Mo will ever race again but I’m invoking the Frank Whiteley rule: Never count a horse at until he’s dead at least 24 hours.
JP
17 May 2011 at 07:56 am | #
With regard to Uncle Mo, I heard that Pletcher is trying to arrange a mating with Life at Ten, as they both have the dominant “mysterious illness” gene.
TTT
17 May 2011 at 07:59 am | #
Ted,
The mysterious illness gene has an amazing way of showing up in certain barns. That sounds like the riskiest mating since Rosemary’s Baby.
17 May 2011 at 08:45 am | #
The former Pletcher runner I WOULD like to breed to is Octave. She’s one of the few to make it through unscathed. She must have had an iron constitution.
17 May 2011 at 09:21 am | #
Mr. Pricci (off topic) Although I look forward to your picks and insight to horse racing losing Mr. Christine is a HUGE loss to this site. I really looked forward to his columns twice a week and even would forward his articles to fellow horse players. This site will not be the same without him. Like somebody said the almighty dollar once again screws everything up. PLEASE I beg you kiss and make up.
17 May 2011 at 09:30 am | #
Anybody got any thoughts on the girlie race on blue Tuesday?
The Black Eyed Susan
May 20, 2011 - Pimlico
No. Horse TTT
4 Wyomia 3.29
2 Hot Summer 5.02
1 Royal Delta 7.39
3 Coax Liberty 7.47
17 May 2011 at 10:00 am | #
funny you should ask, TTT. I was just going over the card. and a very nice one it is. I really like Royal Delta. I have Hot Summer as the second fastest horse but that was off a sprint. Wyomia would round out my tri.
17 May 2011 at 10:05 am | #
T,
LOVE THEWAY YOUARE- Arch by TOBASCO CAT dam is my sentimental choice of course.
Royal Delta and Busters Ready look interesting.
Of course, we have to await THE PREACHERMAN’s pick first.
-------
As far as top 3 yr olds, FRANKEL the horse, might be the best horse on this planet!!!!
17 May 2011 at 11:42 am | #
Tobasco Cat, did not mean to jump the gun, just wanted to share my winner with y’allllll! Me oh myo, it’s Wyomia at the wire-ia.
TTT
17 May 2011 at 12:14 pm | #
Dear Oracle of the Oval,
Wyomia is the 9/5 ML fav and will probally go off at the can’t stay alive 6/5
I will need a price in the Black Eyed Susan to go with the second fastest horse on the planet Animal Kingdom to complete the Susan/Preakness Double.
No hard feelings here, strictly business. I still..
LOVE THEWAY YOUARE .....LOL
17 May 2011 at 12:31 pm | #
Tobasco Cat, hope you still feel that way after you hear rumors of me running naked over the top of portable toilets and chasing young blonde girls in a drunken stupor. Kegasus?
TTT
17 May 2011 at 01:01 pm | #
Off topic? Maybe. Maybe not. I suggest we hire professionals to schedule a round table to discuss it.
If, if, if, if, if, if… (><)infinity…
If this industry really gave a damn…
If frogs had wings…
What was the question again?
Horse racing may be described as the science of arresting the human intelligence long enough to get money from it.
Whenever I think of the past, it brings back so many memories…
How did a fool and his money get together to start with?
If man evolved from apes why do we still have apes?
What is the speed of dark?
If we aren’t supposed to eat animals, then why are they made out of meat?
Is it true that cannibals won’t eat clowns because they taste funny?
Why do they put Braille dots on the keypad of the drive up ATM?
Why is there always one in every crowd? If you took all the ones in every crowd and put them in another crowd, will there be one in that crowd, too?
If corn oil comes from corn, where does baby oil come from?
We owe a lot to Thomas Edison - if it wasn’t for him, we’d be watching television by candlelight.
Nothing is illegal if a hundred businessmen decide to do it, and that’s true anywhere in the world.
Now, back to the exciting wonderful world of horse racing and al those if’s.
17 May 2011 at 01:04 pm | #
Oracle,
You are talking to the STUD TOBASCO CAT who died in the breeding shed drinking Guiness.
I guess the infield on Saturday at Pimlico will be your MANIMAL KINGDOM?
17 May 2011 at 01:43 pm | #
I come to bury Irwin, “not to praise him.” What will the “dirt writer” say in the wake of a Preakness not run like a turf race and AK should be proven mortal? Can anyone say “One Hit Wonder” or Mine That Bird? Wasn’t Chip Wooley a “world-class connection” even if the owners weren’t?
The noble Irwin has told us trainers are suspicious. Pletcher should respond with, “Repole is my friend, faithful and just to me, but the brutal Baffert says he is suspicious, and Bobby is an honorable man (like all trainers and mushroom farmers).
Yon Zito “has a lean and hungry look,” but DI succumbed to Shakleford as well as AK. Perhaps the Derby was used as a Preakness prep the way Frank intended.
Zayat is fiddling with Nehro while burning his maiden-only winner’s chances at 9.5 furlongs which just might be his best distance (between 9.0 and 10.0). Is “seconditis” a symptom of the “mysterious illness gene?”