![]() Photo by Mike Sekulic Hear the Ghost taking the G2 San Felipe Stakes |
But in 2013, when a newly conceived Derby Playoff system is working like a playoff system is supposed to work, horses are beginning to either raise their game or demonstrate that they indeed own one.
Such was the case this weekend as Hall of Famer Jerry Hollendorfer jumped into the fray with a long-striding late-runner named Hear the Ghost while the uber talented Verrazano underscored that a 16-length one-turn allowance win might only have been the tip of a giant iceberg.
Winning your first start at Tampa Bay Downs by overcoming adversity while making a two-turn debut is an impressive parlay. And for such a huge individual to show the kind of athleticism to jump over heels outside was a revelation. On Saturday, Verrazano's deal just got a little more real.
On the Left Coast, Hollendorfer, winning with just about everything he sends out lately, saw his gelding, which he owns in part with Halo Farms, run down the trip-compromised Bob Baffert-trainee Flashback in the final strides of the San Felipe Stakes.
Resultantly, Hear the Ghost debuts in the HRI Power 10 at #7; Verrazano moved up to second; Flashback dropped out, making room for another Baffert runner, Super Ninety Nine.
However, Orb held on to his opening week lead but by a smaller margin. Here’s how this week’s voting shook out:
1. ORB (37): All’s quiet in the Shug shed as the Phipps-Janney runner moves inexorably closer for the Florida Derby in three weeks. But the dinner talk at the Velazquez household where agent Angel Cordero Jr. often finds himself must have been pretty interesting last night. Johnny rides for both McGaughey (Point of Entry) and long-time client Todd Pletcher (Verrazano). Indulto doubts Johnny’s locked in anywhere yet; agreed. Can’t have too many live mounts on the Road to Louisville. It’s a very tough slog, just ask Keith Desormeaux.
2. VERRAZANO (32): At HRI, where action never sleeps, Jicha proposes a very interesting over-under proposition. If Verrazano can remain undefeated in his final prep, seemingly the Wood Memorial at this point, what will be higher on Derby day, Verrazano’s post-time odds or the Verrazano’s round-trip toll? Not only does the editor believe he has the answer but might win bar bets all the way back to Queens. If the guy you’re betting has EZ Pass, take Over the toll ($10.66); if he doesn’t, you’re on your own. At $15, Under is the right favorite-- but it might be thisclose.
3. ITSMYLUCKYDAY (26): Trainer Eddie Plesa alternating those long, slow gallops/breezes with speedy condition-maintaining 5-furlong breezes at his Calder base efforting to bring his fast and classy sophomore up to the Florida Derby the right way. The Gulfstream Derby winner and G3 Holy Bull repeater still owns the best back-to-back Equiform Energy Figures around two turns this year. Undefeated in two starts on the Gulfstream main track, his up-close stalking style fits the shape of the race and the Hallandale oval’s profile.
4-tie SHANGHAI BOBBY (23): If you watched any races at Fair Grounds this weekend, you probably noticed that Rosie Napravnik was very photogenic all weekend long. Yes, success is all about the quality of the mounts. But her talents suit the quirky surface and this country’s longest stretch perfectly, and since the Louisiana Derby is the same afternoon as Florida’s Derby, doesn’t it take a lot of confidence in the juvenile champion to abandon all those chicken dinners in Nawlins and ship to SoFla? It’s not like she won’t find any good rides here but it’s unlikely to be the favorite in most every race?
4-tie VYJACK (23): If I were the owner of this late runner with the big engine, I don’t know if I would be completely unhappy to learn that Verrazano is coming to Gotham for the Wood. The more speed, the merrier, right? True, there’s the undefeated mystique to protect, but if you happened to beat the other undefeated mystique? Makes you Big Colt on Campus, yes? There there’s this: With both having 50 points, with the real Big Dance to come, it doesn’t really make sense to have him at 100% anyway, right?
6. REVOLUTIONARY (19): This guy has only 10 points so, as opposed to Verrazano, he must run big or it’s Baltimore here we come. He already has demonstrated that he’s in the conversation for best broken field runner in the history of Kentucky Derby prep races. Now he must prove that he can get there faster. The new points system has eliminated the possibility of any no-chance speedy sprinters entering the Louisville starting gate. So while the Derby pace will probably be fast, per usual, I wouldn’t be suspecting any meltdowns.
7. HEAR THE GHOST (17): Jumped into HRI’s Derby Power 10 in a big way and just wish there were a hidden camera to see Corey Nakatani laughing his head off as he watched Kevin Krigger and Julien Leparoux commit equine suicide-by-pace in the San Felipe. So, yes, he had the right set up. After that, all he needed to do was outfinish an equally fresh rival on his right shoulder while trying to train his sights on Flashback who was still there are Goldencents said no mas. Looks like a promising runner but we must get validation at 9 furlongs.
8. UNCAPTURED (12): On last week’s NTRA conference call, Mark Casse was there to discuss the chances of Dramatic Sky vs. Verrazano et al in the Tampa Bay Derby. First, however, he was asked about his leading Derby contender that has yet to race this year: “Uncaptured worked as good as a horse can work and we’re very excited to get him started,” Casse said. Mark Casse doesn’t get excited often but the winner of six of seven juvenile starts including two at Churchill Downs would get most trainers excited. “I feel like he’s training better than ever.”
9-tie SUPER NINETY NINE (6): It is probably sophomoric to toss Flashback out off a very good placing after getting fried on the early pace like that but the romping winner of the G3 Southwest in the Hot Springs slop will get a chance to validate his first appearance in the Power 10 in Saturday’s talent-laden Rebel Stakes. He’ll be facing much better this time around a hopefully the surface will be dry. Sure does continue to train well, giving no indication of being a runoff as some of his speed efforts might suggest. Can’t wait for Saturday’s barn burner.
9-tie NORMANDY INVASION (6): There very little Chad Brown can do about the jackpot he’s in and play the hand he’s dealt, meaning that he might have to treat the Wood like it’s the Kentucky Derby. A second-place finish worth 40 points in the final round Grade 1 just might be enough for him to crack the bottom of the Derby 20. Like Vyjack, the presence of the speedy Verrazano helps with the pace scenario but makes the overall task a lot more difficult. The potential of a big field for this late runner is yet another concern.
And to think that the fun has only just begun.



11 Mar 2013 at 12:49 pm | #
Good list of wanna be’s...only one of them has the ability to get the derby distance...uncaptured...The Rebel will show you one of the one’s....
11 Mar 2013 at 03:20 pm | #
Flashback’s San Felipe was reminiscent of Silver Charm’s Santa Anita Derby. That’s not to say he should be ranked ahead of Hear the Ghost, but he belongs in the top 10.
The 32.40 final 5/16s of the race was slow, providing a fast/slow race shape which favored the 1st and 3rd finishers.
11 Mar 2013 at 11:17 pm | #
I hear you Nick, but his inability to switch off on the backside after Julien got the hurry-ups won’t help down the road. He doesn’t look like a runoff but I would like to see a sit and strike strategy in the next round.
So, no hints, Russ?
12 Mar 2013 at 07:58 am | #
How are ya? HRI Derby Power 10 Panel,
It’s a ghost? You mean Bobby Frankel was back at the Great Race Place last Saturday? Ghostzapper get it.
MEET THE NEW BOSS, SAME AS THE OLD BOSS? Orb #1 again on your list. You guys are real fart smellas, I mean smart fellas!
Orb had his first workout at Payson Park since the FOY yesterday. Second fastest at the distance behind elder GRI stablemate Data Link.
Is Randy Romero available? If the Cordero/Johhny V conclave pledges its allegiance to Pletcher does Ramon Dominguez take the Orb reins?
Commenter Russ, If the son of Malibu Moon out of an Unbridled mare, grandson of Seattle Slew and Secretariat can’t get the Derby distance I’ll eat my tickets. BTW do we have to see white smoke before we get your Derby pick?
Meanwhile… Is Joe Pepitone available? the Yankees are looking for a first base replacement.
The real beat goes on… not some regurgitated Corrow beat…
We’ll be fighting in the streets
With our children at our feet
And the morals that they worship will be gone
And the men who spurred us on
Sit in judgement of all wrong
They decide and the shotgun sings the song
I’ll tip my hat to the new constitution
Take a bow for the new revolution
Smile and grin at the change all around
Pick up my guitar and play
Just like yesterday
Then I’ll get on my knees and pray
We don’t get fooled again
The change, it had to come
We knew it all along
We were liberated from the fold, that’s all
And the world looks just the same
And history ain’t changed
‘Cause the banners, they are flown in the next war
I’ll tip my hat to the new constitution
Take a bow for the new revolution
Smile and grin at the change all around
Pick up my guitar and play
Just like yesterday
Then I’ll get on my knees and pray
We don’t get fooled again
No, no!
I’ll move myself and my family aside
If we happen to be left half alive
I’ll get all my papers and smile at the sky
Though I know that the hypnotized never lie
Do ya?
Yeaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah!
There’s nothing in the streets
Looks any different to me
And the slogans are replaced, by-the-bye
And the parting on the left
Are now parting on the right
And the beards have all grown longer overnight
I’ll tip my hat to the new constitution
Take a bow for the new revolution
Smile and grin at the change all around
Pick up my guitar and play
Just like yesterday
Then I’ll get on my knees and pray
We don’t get fooled again
Don’t get fooled again
No, no!
Yeaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah!
Meet the new boss
Same as the old boss
12 Mar 2013 at 09:25 am | #
The trainer will not run Orb in the Derby if he is not 100% satisfied with his works between now and then...even then he really has no desire to burn him out with the distance.Shug,will not enter a horse just to be there...would you like some fries with your tickets?How about a 16oz pepsi to wash them down?
I have noted I will give you my Derby pick when I return from Oaklawn…
When it comes to picking horses,most people listen to the BS from the trainers...big mistake,go out to the barns and talk to the workers,they know first hand how the horses are doing…
12 Mar 2013 at 10:07 am | #
All horses can get the Derby distance....some of them might take awhile, but they will get there...it’s the one that crosses the line first is the one you want....duh.....
12 Mar 2013 at 11:23 am | #
Mr. Russ,
WHO ARE YOU? The Arkansas horse whisperer?
The last prediction you made on the Carryover 2.0 you said that the Patriots would beat the Giants. How did that turn out? New York, New York!
Be a man! Have some balls! State your pick before the Rebel. The only contender from Arkansas will probably be another Baffert horse.
“no desire to burn him out with the distance” ???What in the name of: Bold Ruler, Ruffian, Buckpasser, Unbridled, Mr. Prospector, Big Red, The Slew, AP Indy, Damascus and Dr. Fager are you talking about? Do we need CSI Miami to figure this out?
Orb can travel both fast and far. A hundred years in the making for a family that has been to the pinnacle and abyss of thoroughbred horseracing. The only thing left is a Derby win. Dinny and Stuart can smell it. Gladys and Ogden are stirring. New York is buzzing. Of course the connections will only go if the horse is 100% sound, the horse always comes first. They already have the luxury of enough points for qualification. The horse won’t have to travel. The horse has shown closing ability while overcoming a speed bias GP track. If any horseman in the game can have a horse ready to peak it’s Shug. If any horseman deserves a “cherry on top” of a HOF career it’s Shug.
Win or lose it will be a 32oz of Guinness, tickets withstanding. The beat goes on…
Well, who are you? (Who are you? Who, who, who, who?)
I really wanna know (Who are you? Who, who, who, who?)
Tell me, who are you? (Who are you? Who, who, who, who?)
‘Cause I really wanna know (Who are you? Who, who, who, who?)
12 Mar 2013 at 11:52 am | #
did not want you to get your undies in a bind...so I missed one,hell I’ve missed a few over the years.at least I admit it...who said I was going to the Rebel? That’s a prep for the real race… oh, and yes I do have balls,real big ones...been around this game a long time......I’ll be here with my selection...you sleep good now..
12 Mar 2013 at 12:15 pm | #
OK, gents, please let’s dial it down. We all love spirited debate; the extraneous stuff, not so much.
Thanks!
jp
12 Mar 2013 at 12:23 pm | #
You ask who am I? I am one of many who have been to the track before dawn,so I get the chance to see the horses up close and talk to the workers.Go there just once,get some good fertlizer on your shoes,cowboy boots if you have them..smell the surroundings...and just watch what goes on,you could learn alot. Most trainers will welcome you to look around and ask questions..just don’t be a smart ass..you should really get out more,out of your comfort zone..it’s a big country..
12 Mar 2013 at 01:17 pm | #
I’m on the record as liking Uncaptured enough to bet him in pool 2.
So, the thing I was looking for in the Tampa Derby (aside from whether Verrazano would handle 2 turns) was a good placing by Java’s War. See, he had run behind my selection in the KJC last Fall. The race that some criticized as slow ( 76 BSF ).
Well, I got my wish. JW ran a BSF in the mid 90’s. Verazanno got a 101 for his win.
Can’t wait to see the Spiral in two weeks.
*
The sleeper in Cali might be Tiz A Minister, but, the race came up fairly slow with a 93 BSF.
*
I’ve Struck a Nerve’s injury takes his 51 points out. Violence’s 30 points are also already gone.
How will this affect The number needed to get into the starting gate on the first Saturday in May? Maybe it won’t take as many as some people think.
*
Spaeking of points. Besides the uproar over the Illinois Derby being left out, what about the race run at Laurel this past weekend. The Private Terms at !-1/8 miles ought to count for something. Shouldn’t it?
12 Mar 2013 at 01:26 pm | #
Russ, It’s all good BRO, which is ORB spelled backwards btw. Just busting chops for laughs.
Call it Derby fever, call it a bad sense of humor by myself or call it a Who hangover from the benfit concert I caught last week by Roger, Pete and the boys. Good luck with your selection.
Preach, feel free to delete my comments and sense of humor that goes into the sport I love.
Turn the beat off if you will, never ment to harm anyone...TvTom might know which CSI theme song this one is…
Out here in the fields,
I fight for my meals,
I get my back into my living.
I don’t need to fight,
To prove I’m right,
I don’t need to be forgiven.
Don’t cry,
Don’t raise your eye,
It’s only teenage wasteland…
12 Mar 2013 at 01:52 pm | #
BABA
When I saw The Who at the Garden back in the 70’s, they opened with Baba O’Reilly and closed with Won’t Get Fooled Again!
In my memory, still the best concert I ever went to.
12 Mar 2013 at 02:33 pm | #
DennyM,
The Who played the last show of their tour at MSG(old felt forum) last week for a benefit for teen cancer. They played all the oldies as good as ever, Pete still windmilling the guitar!
Speaking of Private Terms who was a Janney/Phipps production. Was undefeated going into the Derby after wins in the Gotham and Wood. PT is related to Orb through the mare Laughter. Food for thought? Remember this one…
No one knows what it’s like to be the bad man
To be the sad man behind blue eyes
No one knows what it’s like
To be hated, to be fated to telling only lies
But my dreams, they aren’t as empty
As my conscience seems to be
I have hours, only lonely
My love is vengeance that’s never free…
12 Mar 2013 at 02:51 pm | #
TC,
“Behind Blue Eyes” was on the same LP - “Who’s Next”, one of the best LP’s ever.
Seems you and I are the only ones willing to go out on a limb and pick the Derby winner this far out.
Maybe HRI could have a contest? Everyone is allowed to pick 1 horse. But, only one horse per person. First come , first served.
12 Mar 2013 at 03:58 pm | #
Cat,not worried about busting chops,good humor goes a long ways...if you cannot smile and say ok, well....
take out your webster dictionary and look up orb==circular---I believe that will be the plan for the big dance...talking about seeing the Who in the 70’s,ouch I have shoes that old.....
13 Mar 2013 at 08:15 am | #
As we’re on a limited budget here, if we held a “Pick the Derby Winner Now contest, the only “reward” would be dinner with me this summer in Saratoga.
Yeah, I know, second prize would be two dinners…
13 Mar 2013 at 09:36 am | #
Dinner with the Preach, count me in! Can it be Personal Ensign Stakes Day?
I’ll give 100-1 odds that Corrow won’t be in the contest, any takers?
Still black smoke from the Russ chimney?
Play it again Sam, the beat goes on?
Ever since I was a young boy,
I’ve played the silver ball.
From Soho down to Brighton
I must have played them all.
but I ain’t seen nothing like him
In any amusement hall.
That deaf, dumb and blind kid
Sure plays a mean pinball!
13 Mar 2013 at 09:50 am | #
Count me in too.!
BTW Uncaptured worked a mile at OTC yesterday in a very nice 1:40.00
13 Mar 2013 at 10:27 am | #
OK boys, we’ll see what kind of interest there is.
If there isn’t in sufficient #s, well, there’s always cocktails…
13 Mar 2013 at 02:24 pm | #
What, can’t a guy go out and play a few hands of cards without somebody looking for him...jeez get a life...yes I will enter your contest,I will give you my pick after Ark. Derby,maybe before....R. Ellis has been talking about Treasury Bill since last year.You will get better odds sat.,because of the coupling....Carve will get a piece,Will Take Charge will get a piece...there’s my tri...I see 11 entries=3 turf horses,3 speed horse,5 that do not belong here...hows that for picking early....
13 Mar 2013 at 02:26 pm | #
Do not bother me tommorow,I have a (large) card game to go to.........................If I’m lucky I will move on to Friday’s game...............
13 Mar 2013 at 03:58 pm | #
There’s white smoke! We have a new Pope! And a pick from Russ..sorta
Rumour has it that the HRI Derby contest prize will also include:
1- A photograph by Toni Preach of Royal Delta with a possible autograph by Billy Mott.
2- An autographed book by the author(Brendan O’Meara) of Six Weeks in Saratoga, the story of Rachel Alexandra
3- A poem by Indulto on the excommunication of Hawthorne Park by CDI
4- An old copy of the Morning Telegraph with Kelso past Performances, signed by Tom Jicha
Hurry up and make your pick for the Derby before someone else takes your horse. Lets go Hot Horse, TTT, Chuck from Saratoga, Suffolk Downs Luva, OTM Al, Andrew A and the rest of you great handicappers. Bragging rights for one year! Don’t be shy. Sorry Nick Kling, public handicappers are not eligible.
The beat goes on?
Don’t cry for me Argentina
The truth is I never left you
All through my wild days
My mad existence
I kept my promise
Don’t keep your distance…
15 Mar 2013 at 07:22 am | #
Where’s Top Turf Teddy, Mr, Speed, Wally California, WMCorrow or anyone?
HRI Derby contest! Winner gets dinner at Siro’s Saratoga with the Preach! Step up to the plate!
The Cat is in(ORB), Denny is in(Uncaptured), Russ is in(Arkansas Monster TBD)
Don’t miss this one time opportunity… A bottle of red, a bottle of white…
15 Mar 2013 at 08:40 am | #
Siro’s? Pretty good promoting, Cat. Didn’t say anything about which restaurant. Was thinking more in the order of Italian; Nove.
But I suppose the winner can choose if he likes. We’ve got time, though, sometime before the 100-pointers.
WMC participate? No chance.