Saturday, May 19, 2012

That’s Two!

BALTIMORE, MD,--May 19, 2012-

10:34 P.M., Sunday--Just got home from Baltimore this minute to find HRI up and running. Bandwidth issues in Toronto beyond our control prevented the following from being posted early Preakness evening. Better late than never. Hope you agree. More as soon as I get a chance Monday. Sorry for any inconveniece.

6:52 P.M., Saturday--Most--if not all--of the pre-race Preakness storyline surrounded the strong favorites.

Can Bodemeister be the same horse in the Triple Crown’s second jewel as he was in Hot Springs and Louisville?

And whether he’s the same horse or not, can I’ll Have Another’s connections afford to let him get away soft?

The competition for the early Preakness lead was non-existent on paper. I’ll Have Another would have to use his tactical speed early to give himself the best, and perhaps only, chance to run his main rival down like he did two weeks ago.

But playing the role of stalker is different from playing the role of presser. A stalker, which is tough enough, stay somewhere off the leader’s flank in close attendance.

And when a stalker moves at the speed horse, it must be a decisive thrust. If not, the leader, all things being equal, will have something in reserve and repulse the challenge.

The presser’s role is different; it’s harder. It takes a rider with tremendous timing, strength, confidence and steel nerves not only to measure the energy of the horse beneath him but also that of his rival. Knowing when to pull the trigger is everything.

At the draw for post positions on Wednesday, Barry Irwin, CEO of Team Valor International and owner of Went The Day Well, said it all in front of a national television audience.

“The pressure is on I’ll Have Another to make it a horse race.” The inference was clear: The rest of us, including the Derby winner, have very little chance if he doesn’t. Even I’ll Have Another’s trainer, Doug O’Neill, admitted as much.

Unlike the Derby, Mario Gutierrez wasn’t sneaking up on anyone at Old Hilltop. Given the race dynamics, Gutierrez’s course was clear. Nothing to it; just do it.

The presser is forced to play a game of chicken. He needs to put his horse close to his speedy rival, but not too close or he’ll wear himself out chasing the leader’s pace.

But the rider has to know when to ease back, too, pushing and pulling, forward and back. How much are these tactics taking out of my horse? How much does the leader have left? It’s a dangerous game of equine roulette.

Play the game and kill your chances, or not. Well, Gutierrez, again riding with supreme confidence, let Bode go while he bided his time in fourth.

It was another Californian, Creative Cause, who took up the chase, the role that I’ll Have Another was supposed to play.

And the chilly Gutierrez, riding the race as it came up, and again showing supreme confidence in his horse, riding his Santa Anita Derby race back, tracked the two leaders around the far turn.

When Gutierrez elected to go outside at the quarter pole for a clear run, instead of staying inside and waiting until the straight, you knew he was going to be double tough.

Double tough, tough as in Belmont Park here we come! With a chance to make history.

The game finally won one. Three weeks, and we’ll find out if the Derby and Preakness winner has another in him.

***

1:14 p.m. Well, Bob Baffert is going to have at least one winning favorite on the card, that would be Paynter, at 1-9 on the odds board while meeting preliminary allowance types after finishing second in the G3 Derby Trail at Churchill after finishing fourth, beaten a scany 3-3/4 lengths by I'll Have Another and Creative Cause, who were noses apart in the G1 Santa Anita Derby.

While horses have come from off the pace on the main track races to this point, the inside seems to be carrying the speed after they're passed by winning favorites in the two two-turn races run thus far.

That makes it interesting later on--if the track is helping carry Bodemeister but not hindering I'll Have Another or any other rivals, for that matter, looking to make an impression late.

***

11:32 Form keeps holding, even Over There. Frankel, you might remember him, "the world's best horse," remained undefeated in his return, stalking his rabbit stablemate, before drawing off to win by about 6 lengths under an energetic Tom Queally. Major goal is the King George Queen Elizabeth at some place called Ascot.

And form keeps holding, did we mention that? Baileys Beach, 3-5, completed a chalky early double and Zagora, dropping out of the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley, returned to the G3 level in the Gallorette Handicap as the 121-pound highweight amd won comfortably over Speak East Gal with second favorite Laughing behind in third. The Gallorette was Zagora's third G3 score this year.

Time to get back into the big time for this impressive turf mare.

***

10:32 a.m It's sunny, fast, and firm here as the horses for the first race, a 5-furlong turf sprint, just crossed the finish line. The day got off to a formful start as Joe Bravo guided Varsity to a clear cut victory the 15-1 Agonistic.

The conditions fro racing are perfect at the moment but the temperature is on the rise. The over-under was 80 as of yesterday but it looks like the play is going to be the over.

We'll watch that trend throughout the day and see whether the heat is going to hold some hooves to the fire. The nights have been cool and brisk, good sleeping weather for man and beast.

***

Updated scratches, hot off the copy machine:

Race 2: Arctic Raven
Race 4: Leadhills. Put A. Arroyo on #4
Race 5: No Attraction, Unlikely Hero, Hot Escapade
Race 7: Lily Of Johar. Put Dunkleberger on #4
Race 8: My Cuz C J, Broad Rule, Ravato
Race 9: Going To Market, Achilles
Race 10: Pinch Pie
Preakness: Put Ramon Dominguez on Tiger Walk
Race 13: Rider Changes--Put G Garcia on #4, M. Franklin on #5, A. Delgado on #6, R. Folgelsonger on #11

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Thursday, May 17, 2012

Unlike Derby, Preakness Pressure on Young Gutierrez

BALTIMORE, MD., May 17, 2012—One analyst’s look at the 11 horses contesting Preakness 137 at Pimlico Race Course on Saturday:

1-TIGER WALK 30-1 Owner Kevin Plank, the new master of Sagamore Farm interested in and dedicated to the resurgence of Maryland racing, wants to win a classic so badly he can taste it. The Wood Memorial fourth finisher has gotten good at the right time, advanced to an incremental lifetime best in that Aqueduct event, has worked sharply locally, and is likely to continue his developmental pattern. Owns exotics prospects.

2-TEETH OF THE DOG 15-1 Entered in the Peter Pan last weekend but was scratched in favor of running here before his owner. Trainer Michael Matz would have preferred to run in the Peter Pan he said this week. How can that be good news? Still, after an opening Compression Line sprinting, he's run in three routes, never has taken a backward step, and with good spacing is likely to move forward here. If he can, the Wood Memorial third can be an exotics presence at generous odds.

3-PRETENSION 30-1 Local horse won the Canonero II over the surface last out but in woefully slow time. Has yet to show he is of this class.

4-ZETTERHOLM 20-1 In five career starts, never has taken a backward step on the Equiform scale, going from strength to strength while continuing to show much improved energy distribution in recent starts. Had a nice work over the local ground last weekend and is poised for a fifth consecutive forward move that conceivably could make him a super-exotics player at huge odds. Trainer Rick Dutrow admits he’s shot-taking in here. I’ve seen far more improbable entrants.

5-WENT THE DAY WELL 6-1 Jockey John Velazquez incredibly frustrated by the poor racing luck he experienced in Louisville, flying home for fourth in deep stretch after finally getting out into the clear. Late developer galloped out very strongly after the Churchill Downs finish line and blinkers have made a positive difference. Has continued making favorable impressions with morning observers. Despite a significant Double Top winning the Spiral Stakes, he moved forward to a competitive 76½ in the Derby. Serious Preakness player.

6-CREATIVE CAUSE 6-1 After acting quietly for three days following a wide-trip fifth in a solid Derby effort, his energy level is back to where it should be according to trainer Mike Harrington. Classy multiple stakes winner was out-nodded in nose loss to the Derby winner in Santa Anita Derby, which speaks volumes. Nearly ran back to lifetime best 76¾ in Kentucky despite ground loss. Could prove the Preakness value play should the three top choices be somewhat over-bet. However, two transcontinental flights within three-week span is a legitimate concern.

7-BODEMEISTER 8-5 The key numbers here are 2, 3, 5 and 78; as in three races in five weeks with two workouts in between three-week intervals and 78, the highest Equiform performance figure going a route of ground earned among Saturday’s starters. The 77 he ran in his runnerup Derby finish was accompanied by a New Pace Top. Slight regression plus Pace Top usually signifies forward move. But it’s the compressed racing schedule that’s worrisome; still in the running to potentially become “one of the ones.”

8-DADDY NOSE BEST 12-1 A surprising last moment entrant by the dour Steve “Bigger Than the Game” Asmussen, his Derby effort was a complete mystery considering he was one of the training stars in Louisville. Apparently none the worse for wear, he is entered back here and his race in Kentucky might prove to be the mother of all throw-outs. Trainer reunites colt with Julien Leparoux, victorious earlier this year but replaced by Garrett Gomez in the Derby after Leparoux chose Union Rags. Intriguing price shot.

9-I’LL HAVE ANOTHER 5-2 All hail Derby hero after receiving masterful preparation and race handling by Doug O’Neill and Mario Gutierrez, respectively. Has maintained his energy level according to his trainer who continues to love the energetic, powerful stride this colt demonstrates during morning workouts. He has marched forward in every two turn start this year, including a lifetime best 77½ in Louisville. It’s thisclose between the two favorites on figures and the winning difference will be whether he can compensate for Bodemeister’s brilliance and anticipated loose lead. This will be young Gutierrez’s biggest challenge to date.

10-OPTIMIZER 30-1 Even considering that new rider Corey Nakatani is enjoying a bit of resurgence in business and confidence this season, this is a very tall order. He is on a favorable pattern, threatening to move forward here, but it is unlikely that it will matter enough for him to gain even a small share. It will be back to the turf course before long.

11-COZZETTI 30-1 Trainer Dale Romans believes that had he entered Derby third Dullahan back in the Preakness, he would have won it; instead we get Cozzetti, which Romans hinted is a bit of a morning glory, unable to run back to his promising a.m. workouts. Nevertheless, five weeks from the Arkansas Derby is good spacing coming off a lifetime best 73½. Most likely to move forward, which might be good enough for a minor share.

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Tuesday, May 15, 2012

Older Alternatives My Friends

BALTIMORE, MD., May 15, 2012—So Bodemeister’s in, all the other speed is out, including the stressed out juvenile champion, and the Kentucky Derby runnerup will be loose on the Preakness lead at Old Hilltop come Saturday.

It finally stopped raining here and it was going to be beautiful through Saturday, but now there’s a 30 percent chance of thundershowers for the second jewel in the crown.

But the locals tell me this is the Mason-Dixon Line for weather, meaning it can resemble any other Delaware Valley-based area, which basically means a Northeastern U.S. weather pattern.

Or, apparently, it can be a little like Florida, meaning that the sun can be shining at Pimlico Race Course while golf-ball sized hail rains down on Ellicott City. I’m holding a good thought.

I’ll be watching the Yanks and Birds live on Tuesday night for two reasons: Can’t afford Yankees home games, and I’m betting my buddy that Doug O’Neill won’t one-hop it to the plate when he throws out the first pitch at Camden Yards. I insisted on, and got, 8-5.

But man does not live by Preakness alone. There are some older horses lurking about, such as the horse currently ranked 4th in the NTRA open poll, Oaklawn Park Handicap champion Alternation, the headliner in Friday’s resuscitated Pimlico Special.

Is he a one-track wonder or has developed very well for 3 to 4? Is Bodemeister going to regress? Will Doug O’Neill get the job done tonight? These are important questions.

While Alternation is a deserving favorite, the Special is no one-horse affair. Wood Memorial winner Toby’s Corner was third in both starts at 4; the fast key race Grade 2 General George sprinting and a similar finish when third to Fair Grounds freak Nate’s Mineshaft in the G2 New Orleans Handicap.

Lest anyone forget, trainer Graham Motion is a profitable 27% efficient with horses returning off similar 46-day layups.

Endorsement won the Texas Mile last out. Hymn Book won Gulfstream’s G1 Donn Handicap but rallied very wide behind Alternation in Hot Springs most recently.

Yawanna Twist won the General George then lacked aggressive handling while racing wide in at Oaklawn Park when third. In his only Pimlico start, he was beaten two lengths by Lookin At Lucky in last year’s Preakness.

And not least is Mission Impazible which, after winning last year’s New Orleans Handicap, finished second in three consecutive Grade 1s, including a nose loss in the Donn and a second in this New Orleans Handicap renewal.

Speaking of Todd Pletcher, he will have last year’s Jim Dandy and Travers winner, Stay Thirsty, waiting backstage. But first there’s the matter of Thursday’s third race at Belmont Park, the Vanlandingham overnight stakes, a good spot to get the 4-year-old started.

“He’s been training very well and we’ve kind of had a race around this time in mind for awhile, hopefully as a prep for the Suburban Handicap,” said trainer Todd Pletcher. “The main goal for the summer is the Whitney,” adding “we’re happy to have him back.”

“It’s been a long time since the Breeders’ Cup, we’ve got to start somewhere, and this is a good spot,” said owner Repole, “even though this seems a little tougher than an average overnight stakes,” seemingly as anxious to get back in the spotlight as the colt.

Most of the danger to Stay Thirsty in his return is 8-5 second favorite Trickmeister, whose only defeat in a half dozen career starts came in this year’s Donn, his only start in 2012.

Other accomplished rivals are narrowly beaten 2011 Wood Memorial runnerup Arthur’s Tale, third favorite Joan’s Choice, extremely sharp with competitive Equiform figures, and multiple stakes-winning New York bred 3-year-old Swag Daddy.

“Bringing Stay Thirsty back this year was a no brainer and I’m excited,” said Repole. “He won the Jim Dandy, the Travers, and I think he’s going to be one of a really, really good group of older horses this year.”

Actually, the racing this year has been good in both divisions and among the fillies and mares as well. Too bad most of the headlines of 2012 have been made off track.

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