Friday, May 17, 2013
You Feelin’ Lucky, Punter?
If the Pimlico Special-Preakness double means anything, which it does, it appears that Orb is likely to be 4-5 or possibly less at post time.
Orb looms the most probable winner, whether you believe there's a lot more in the tank, which I believe there is, or his last was indeed a very big forward move, he's coming back in two weeks, and has drawn the rail.
All his success in two turn races this year have come racing outside of horses. The reason for the short price, the horse notwithstanding, are the popular connections, the talents of Joel Rosario and the public wants it.
(Remember, the public wanted better background checks, too).
But Orb is a very good horse, and good horses show up on the day. When they don't, they still win. Orb definitely should win, but that's not the way to bet, as the saying goes.
Remember when Itsmyluckyday was the fastest 3-year-old in the country in graded stakes around two turns? So do I.
Before sounding his retreat in the Derby, he raced close enough to that hot pace that he comes into the Preakness off a New Pace Top., often a harbinger of improved performance
Itsmyluckyday worked sharply at his Monmouth base and his outisde position and new rider John Velazquez gives him a chance to trip out in Preakness 138, which gives him better than a puncher's chance to pull off an upset.
If Johnny knows one thing, he knows he needs to get first run, which he should, and hold on to that lead, which is the question. At double digit odds, it's a risk that's worth the reward.
We're taking Itsmyluckyday to win at 8-1 or greater, an exacta box with Orb, and super exotics that include all but Govenor Charley and Titletown Five in money positions.
Number of Selections: 1317
Number of Win-Place-Show Finishers: 403-249-202
Amount Wagered: $2,634 [to win only]
Total Dollar Return on Investment: $2,765.50
Profit to Date: $131.50